We’ve been talking about this for a decade….
Texas going the way of California….
Turning toward’s Blue for the Democrats…
Every election pundits talk about it…
But it doesn’t happen…
Right now?….
Polling shows Joe Biden AHEAD there against Trump but, within the margin of error…
Will the big cities demographics and legal Latino migration change the politics in that state?
There is a significant and growing probability that Texas will become the most consequential swing state in presidential and senatorial elections to come. A campaign in the Lone Star State could cost President Trump the White House next year, even if Texas voters will ultimately choose him.
A powerful combination of demographic forces are propelling Texas from one of the reddest states in the union into a swing state. Democrats will likely make an outside play in Texas ahead of 2020, along with a full run for its projected 41 electoral votes. Texas also stands to gain three seats in Congress after the next census, making it a crucial state for both parties.
Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.
Immigration has already had a very tangible impact on Texas politics. While illegal immigrants cannot vote, their children born in the United States are indeed citizens and make up a significant share of the new generation of voters in the southern state. There are around 35 percent of Texans under the age of 18 who are the children of immigrants, a figure that has nearly doubled in the last 30 years. This carries weight.
Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.
With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted….
image….qz.com
New Open Thread is HERE….
more crazy assed stuff coming on Trump….
Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (she voted against Bill Clinton in both 1992 & 1996).
That’s a streak of 11 Texas-winning Republican tickets in a row, six of which included a Texan (GHW Bush 198-92 & GW Bush 2000-2004).
California hasn’t voted for the GOP ticket since 1988. That’s a string of seven elections in a row when the Golden State voted for a Democrat (WJ Clinton 1992-96, Gore, Kerry, Obama 2008-12, HR Clinton 2016). None of those tickets included a Californian,
BUT BEFORE THAT, and Sen./Gov. Pete Wilson’s campaign for the anti-immigrant Proposition 187, California had voted for Republicans in nine out of ten elections (Ike 1952-6, Nixon 1960, 1968 & 1972, Ford 1976, Reagan 1980-84, GHW Bush 1988 — but not Goldwater 1964). Seven of those nine GOP tickets carried a Californian (Nixon or Reagan).
So a long Republican streak does not translate into forever. Texas probably won’t convert, like California, into an unbroken blue streak, but her blue tinge seems to be getting darker and her red hue pinker.
Purple Rain?
Several years ago,I opined that Texas would become competitive by around 2022 or so.
I was wrong on that.Beto O. was certainly competitive in 2018 against Cruz and Democrats did significantly better than usual in lower ballot races.
I find it difficult to believe that the Demcrat could actually win Texas in 2020 but I think the state has become competitive and will continue to become more so from here on out.
Morning All…
Hope you all had a fine July 4th….
I certainly did….
And it didn’t rain on our local parade…..
Like the Southern migration….
Texas IS destined to go Democratic like California….
“Destiny” is a strong word, and only to be used cautiously and sparingly.
But Texas does SEEM (given current trends) pointed in a Democratic direction.
Of course, Florida is Deep Purple and a must-win swing state today as Ohio and Pennsylvania once were in previous decades.. The only two national losers she has voted for in the 23 elections since 1925 are GHW Bush in 1992 and Nixon in 1960.
Clinton lost Florida….
Biden only leads Trump in Fla by 3%….The same as Texas…
I thought the PR’s immigration to Florida would help Dem’s….
Nope…
Elected Rep. Governor and moving to Red DSD?
Florida isn’t gonna be easy for Biden
Good Morning….
Prayers for those in California affected by the series of earthquakes….
Trump hates the place…
They probably will get little help from the Trump admin….
Republicans used to claim that conservatives fleeing NY and CA for TX were keeping the Lone Star State from becoming competitive for Democrats.
I heard similar claims about Arizona.
I guess that’s no longer the case?
Maybe all the Reaganite Californians have already been absorbed into the electoral mix of these other stares and it’s no longer a factor. Or they are heading to other low tax states in the west like Idaho or Utah that are already red.
Right now it appears that Florida is gaining both conservative and liberal voters at an almost equal rate–keeping it the ultimate swing state.
Florida maybe actually moving AWAY from Democrats?
Why?
Last year the Democrat lost the Governors race by .4% around 30,000 out of over 4.1 million votes cast.
The Senate race was even closer .Rick Scott won by a mere 10,000 votes out of over 4.1 million cast or.2%.
Florida is definitely competitive.with, as I said a very slight Republican lean.
I agree that Florida is presently the main large swing state .
The Republicans seems to have an ever so slight edge and have won several very close elections.
Trumps approvals here are tenuous though which makes it very competitive for 2020.
One minor factor inhibiting GOP growth in, or grasp of, Florida might be Trump’s reimposition of various Cold-War restrictions on travel to Cuba, or spending money there. This of course is still popular with the early wave of anti-Castro refugees, but I think that they constitute an ever-smaller part of Florida’s Cuban-American community.
I think that younger Cuban-Americans (whether born Cuba or the U.S.) must regret losing the freedom that Obama’s looser policy gave them to visit Cuba, see their relatives, and send things to them.
Good point.
Isn’t it beyond amusing that the Republicans are still fighting the Cold War re Cuba ,while their Leader is cracking jokes with ex KGB agent Vladimir Putin ?
Almost everything Trump accused Cuba of applies to Russia as well.
well?
it seems in Trump reality Cuba and Russia have no connect….
But the Cuba doesn’t have the goods on Trump..Do they?
i seem to remember something about older Cuban-Americans actually having no problem going to the right…Being AGAINST Obama and Dem’s for trying to normalize relations with the island…
Trump has seem to jump in that feeling and has cut back easing of travel restrictions to the island….
as we have pointed out today
almost ANYTHING with Obama’s fingerprints on it will be looked to be scraped….
Personally.I favor lifting All restrictions on travel and business with Cuba.
The whole thing is silly and nonsensical and,of course,
Very Republican.
Commerce Woth America draw the country closer to America something Trump is SCARED OFF….
This isn’t just Trump.
It is almost 100% supported by the Republican Party.
Republicans were raising Hell about Obama’s loosening restrictions on travel to Cuba before Trump was even in the picture.
As in most things ,Trump is simply carrying out basic Republican doctrine.
Contrary to what you might read here,Trump maintains massive support within the Republican Party at 90% or more and,even those who oppose him,will almost certainly support him against any of the Democratic alternatives.
contrary to what u hear here?
you are dating itself Jack….
i NOW point to Trump unwavering support of Republicans….Even If a good amount of them don’t like the guy or his actual policies….
Well I was gone for awhile.
I know ,as recently as last year, you would often try to claim that there was a lot of opposition to Trump within the Republican Party when there was no evidence of such.
If you have seen the error of your ways(presumably you have as evidenced by “NOW”) then good for you.
He, He, he
‘Error of my way?’
No
I have watched the gradual capitulation of the GOPer in real time…
Someone is going to have to take the fall for the screwup on Trumps census” citizenship” question.
The most likely candidate is Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
Trump is said to be “frustrated” with him.Ross has appeared inept on a variety of issues and since “turnover” is the byword for the Trump cabinet , his days may be numbered,
The census question was a no starter among the career lawyers in the DOJ it appears….
The case is now going ahead with the judge who is gonna NOW include freshly revealed info that the move is PURELY POLITICAL…
The ruling will be against…
The forms ARE being printed it is reported…
Morning….
Congratulations to the United States Women’s National Team on winning the World Cup, as they have before.
I am not a soccer fan and watched zero of the tournament until about the last three minutes today but they are said to have completely dominated the field.
It’s good to have a positive story about the country, even if Trump will wind up insulting them on Twitter later.
I’m a minor soccer fan.
Interestingly I’ve always found women’s soccer more exciting to watch than mns.
It’s more wide open.
and probably a lot less faking of injuries.
I have long found women’s soccer (football outside North America) to be more interesting to watch than men’s for reasons similar to Jack’s. It seems more open and fluid, and less dependent on simple physical contact.
I’m not an intense fan, but I attend opening World Cup matches in Wembley (London) in 1966 and in Foxboro/Gillette stadium (Mass.) when the men played there in 1994 and when the women played there in 1999 and 2003.
Morning….
Rep. Eric Swalwell has ended his Presidential campaign.
Good call.
About fifteen or sixteen more ought to do the same thing.
John Hickenlooper basically said yesterday that he was a poor candidate ,explaining that the problem with his campaign is “me.”
Aides apparently have urged him to drop this pointless campaign and run for a Senate seat in Colorado.
On paper Hickenlooper would be a fantastic candidate. Scientist turned brewery owner turned big city mayor turned governor of a growing progressive state.
But in reality the candidate himself is right–he’s run a piss poor campaign and it’s time for the curtain to fall.
The sooner the field shrinks?
The better….
Party leaders want several in the field to run for Senate and House seats….
The first of many in the next 30 days or so….
I think Steyer will actually jump in….
Ex-Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska, 89, withdrew his candidacy, too.
I doubt that Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) will stay in this race that long. Perhaps he can challenge extremely popular (save among True Trumpists) Gov. Charlie Baker (R) in 2010.
In 2020, it will have been 140 years since a U.S. Representative rose directly into the Presidency without other experience: James A. Garfield (R), who, by the way, had already been elected to the U.S. Senate from Ohio for the term beginning in 1881 but didn’t take up that seat because he’d been elected President. Had he lost the Presidency, I have little doubt that he would instead have started that Senate term.
I think Garfield is the only example—qualified though it be—of a successful straight House-to-White House campaign.
So (although there’s always a first (e.g. JFK & Obama), Congressmen Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton and Beto O’Rourke might take heed.
Only three U.S. Presidents have also served as mayor of a city: Grover Cleveland of Buffalo, N.Y., who also served as Governor of his state, as did the other two, Calvin Coolidge (Mass.) and Andrew Johnson (Tenn.)
That hasn’t stopped New York Mayors from trying, most recently John Lindsay, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Bloomberg and Bill de Blasio. If de Blasio were nominated and elected that would be a first.
I’d also say (in normal times) that history shows the heavy odds against the current Mayor of South Bend, Ind., Pete Buttigieg, but he’s currently showing unusual strength. Were he elected President, he would break more than one precedent.
As would Julián Castro, former mayor of San Antonio.
Buttigieg and Castro aren’t gonna be the nominee….
Nor is deBlasio….
Morning…..
My latest list of candidates with some realistic chance of the nomination…
Biden
Harris
Sanders
Warren…All four lead the early polling ,are raising a lot of money,and attracting the most media attention .
Booker…only because he retains a reservoir of Black support in S.C. and could inherit Black supporters of Biden if he were to falter early.Bookers major problem is he might not even make it to S.C.
Klobuchar…only because she may inherit a lot of establishment support if Biden falters early.Her problem is similar to Bookers.She may not be able to even last until Iowa.
I had previously eliminated ORourke whom I listed earlier.His candidacy simply has not caught on.
Today I am eliminating Buttigieg.While he is a leading fundraiser,his obvious and continuing inability to attract Minority support will weigh against him mightily as time goes on.Oddly though, he could survive longer than Klobuchar or Booker on his fund raising alone,although those two,if they can survive would actually stand a more realistic chance at the nomination.
At this point I see Buttigieg as most likely to be VP if Harris or Warren get the Presidential nod.
Sanders odds are fading quickly I believe.
He does best when running againat one establishment type Democrat
With Harris and Warren on a trajectory that’s unlikely to happen soon.
Harris is my choice for VP…….
In fact, you can probably gauge the relative importance of the Democratic presidential hopefuls by the highest elective office they’ve held, although a couple of no-hopes have also been U.S. Senators..
[In recent decades there have been elections where Governors were more popular and/or more successful as nominees and others where Senators were more predominant. See footnote] *
Vice President
Biden
U.S. Senator
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar
Sanders
Booker
Bennet
Gillibrand
Gravel
Governor
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Bullock
U.S. Representative
Swalwell [withdrawn]
Moulton
O’Rourke
Delaney
Gabbard
Ryan
Sestak
Mayor
Castro
Buttegieg
De Blasio
Messam
None
Yang
Williamson
* winner first
1960 Sen Kennedy vs VP (ex-Sen.) Nixon
1964 Pres. (ex- VP & ex-Sen.) Johnson vs Sen. Goldwater
1968 VP (ex-Sen.) Nixon vs VP (ex-Sen.) Humphrey vs Gov. Wallace
1972 Pres. (ex-VP & ex-Sen.) Nixon vs Sen. McGovern
1976 Gov. Carter vs Pres (ex-VP & ex-Rep.) Ford
1980 Gov. Reagan vs Pres. (ex-Gov.) Carter
1984 Pres. (ex-Gov) Reagan vs ex-VP (ex-Sen.) Mondale
1988 VP (ex-Rep.) Bush vs Gov. Dukakis
1992 Gov. Clinton vs Pres. (ex-VP & ex-Rep.) Bush
1996 Pres. (ex-Gov.) Clinton vs Sen. Dole
2000 Gov, Bush vs VP (ex-Sen.) Gore
2004 Pres. (ex-Gov.) Bush vs Sen. Kerry
2008 Sen. Obama vs Sen. McCain
2012 Pres. (ex-Den.) Obama vs ex-Gov. Romney
2016 Mr Trump vs ex-Sen. Clinton
Texas billionaire and 1990s Independent 0residebtial candidate has died at age 89.
RIP
Perot embraced his eccentric reputation in the 1992 campaign by adopting Patsy Clibe’s “Crazy” as his theme song.
It was a more good natured, and far less racially charged campaign than Trump’s two decades later. But Perot did appeal to rural and small town voters in much the same way.
“Ross Perot, self-made billionaire, renowned patriot and two-time independent candidate for U.S. president, has died after a five-month battle with leukemia,” the Dallas Morning News reports.
“He was 89.”
Morning…..
Sort of surprising…
Sen Lindsay Graham ,who lately has been a stooge for Trump ,has called on him to admit that climate change is real and to start proposing solutions.
Crazy….
“Two leaders of an Alabama city have resigned after their mayor posted a comment on Facebook about ‘killing out’ socialists, ‘baby killers’ and gay and transgender people,” the Montgomery Advertiser reports.
“But mayor Mark Chambers refused to step down and told residents of Carbon Hill he plans to run for re-election.”
…
An Alabama mayor has apologized after a Facebook post and comment referred to LGBTQ people, socialists and “baby killers” and “killing them out.”
Mark Chambers, the mayor of Carbon Hill, Alabama, a town of about 2,000 people, said that he was sorry for making the comment and that it was not representative of his town.
“Although I believe my comment was taken out of context and was not targeting the LGBTQ community, I know that it was wrong to say anyone should be kill,” he wrote in a Facebook post, captured in a screenshot by the Daily Mountain Eagle newspaper in nearby Jasper.
https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/
Morning People….
Morning people….
Let’s see….
These days…
Active….
Me…
Jack…
DSD…
Scott..
CG…
Inactive….
Bdog…
This was a lock…..
President Trump said Friday morning that Alexander Acosta, his embattled secretary of labor, will resign following controversy over a lenient plea deal he made with Jeffrey Epstein when he was a prosecutor in Florida, the New York Times reports….
Politicalwire….
The first Epstein causality…
So the right wing conspiracy theorists who now run the Republican Party along with Trump got into a fight witb reporters on the White House lawn yesterday.
So classy. So adult.
Bunch of clowns and nutjobs.
Yep. The “brains trust” of the 2019 Republican Party
RCP Democratic race averages have it at ….
Biden…
Warren..
Sanders….
Harris….
Showing a tight race for second…
Good Morning….
Some encouraging news…
A pro Confederate Flag waving group held a rally on the S.C. State House grounds today.
In years past such rallies drew hundreds
Today?25.
Change IS a coming…..
Good Morning All!….
“Diplomatic Vandalism” — Spite against Obama moved Trump to bust the JCPOA with Iran, according the British ambassador’s leaked cables to his Government as reported in The Mail on Sunday:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7244539/Trump-axed-Iran-deal-spite-Obama-British-ambassador-says-Trumps-actions-diplomatic-vandalism.html
Donald Trump abandoned the Iran nuclear deal as an act of ‘diplomatic vandalism’ to spite his predecessor Barack Obama, Britain’s Ambassador to Washington wrote in a bombshell memo to Downing Street.
Sir Kim Darroch’s claim – made after Boris Johnson made a doomed trip to the White House to change the President’s mind – is revealed in leaked cables and briefing notes which led to Sir Kim’s resignation last week.
The new revelation comes after an extraordinary row over the freedom of the press blew up this weekend, with Mr Johnson and leadership rival Jeremy Hunt leading the condemnation of Scotland Yard over its threats to prosecute this newspaper.
…..
Sir Kim’s Iran memo was sent in May 2018, after Mr Johnson – who was then Foreign Secretary – had been dispatched to Washington to make a last ditch plea to President Trump not to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran designed to prevent the regime from building an atomic bomb.
Despite a frantic 26 hours of meetings with Trump’s closest advisers, it became clear that the President was not going to change his mind.
After Mr Johnson returned to London, Sir Kim told No 10 in a ‘diptel’ (diplomatic telegram) that Mr Trump’s Administration was ‘set upon an act of diplomatic vandalism’. The Ambassador wrote that Mr Trump appeared to be abandoning the deal for ‘personality reasons’ because it had been agreed by his predecessor Barack Obama.
Sir Kim suggested there were splits among the President’s closest advisers and said the White House lacked a ‘day-after’ strategy on what to do following withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the deal was called.
This newspaper’s cache of leaked memos from Sir Kim dominated headlines on both sides of the Atlantic last week, after Trump reacted furiously to Sir Kim describing the White House as a ‘uniquely dysfunctional environment’ and ‘diplomatically clumsy and inept’.
Spite” seems to be the motivation for much of Trumps actions.
“Conservatism” in action!
Trump started the ball rolling with his birthed embrace….
Morning…..
Morning on the 3rd day of the Trump racist headliner….
I’m reading in for today and ALREADY the media seems to be sliding away from the Trump/Race story….
That’s the way things go in the Ear of Trump.
Another day, another lie and what do 40-45% of the American people do?They applaud it!
That’s whats really spooky.
Era of Trump
Ok….
The Trump vs His mouth story is still STRONG….
… eh…what’s this I hear about an ear-trumpet ?? ?? ;—)
FYI?
Pelosi is ALSO negotiating with the Trump White House on. budget bill that ‘racist’ Trump would have to sign into law…
Should Harris vote for the budget?
Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens has passed….
RIP Justice Stevens
I actually thought he had already passed.
99 is quite a long life.
While not a fan of his work on the Court, I salute him for a long and accomplished life and note that I believe he got to twice in person watch his beloved Chicago Cubs play in the World Series.. and they won it the last time.
George Will, CG, and Justice John Paul Stevens: all long-suffering fans of the Cubs.
Morning All….
The generally moribund SC Democratic Party had a good one in a press release commenting on Mark Sanford’s possible presidential bid:
“Always nice to see apresidential candidate with fewer extramarital affairs than the President.”
We all know Mark Sanford isn’t afraid to sleep with a woman of color.
Did you know that Sanford has ,of late ,been a part time resident of Illinois?
He has been teaching at the University of Chicago.
I didn’t know that, but I know that the ex Mrs. Sanford is a native of Lake Forest, IL.
Thank Goodness….
The House voted to sideline an effort to immediately impeach Donald Trump, the first test of efforts in the Democrat-led House to seek the president’s removal from office.
Ninety-five Democrats voted to consider articles of impeachment filed this week by Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), who used a procedural maneuver to force action on his proposal…..
Politico
post coming later….
They should impeach him, now more than ever.
If he is such an obvious racist, etc, etc, then this should be the fight Democrats want. What are they afraid of?
Bull Shit CG….
You can’t impeach him for his First Amendment Right to free speech,..
Green wanted this for JUST for words…
This are some some DUMB ASSED Democrats…
Trump wants this out of the House into his majority US Senate
BT
The media WANTS A impeachment show!
U wanting a impeachment makes Jack correct about you….
is VouceofReason coming back to defend Trump?……
Hmmmm?
Erin Burnett just talked to. A democratic House member who voted for impeachment but thought the Greem push was misguided…
So the 90 or so voting where doing local politics ….
Pelosi has her House
You can impeach him for anything you want. It’s a political process. There of course is plenty to impeach him on from the Mueller Report, but I think the way he is fanning the flames of division is also worthy of impeachment
Why are Democrats afraid of doing the right thing? Why are they afraid of what Harry Truman would say, “letting the chips fall where they may?”
Let’s get something straight
Donald TRUMP WILL NOT BE CONVICTED by the US SENATE FOR ANYTHING…..
There is a need for 67 US Senate votes
Schumer wouldn’t even get all the Democrat’s to vote ‘Aye’
Trump is ALREADY saying out loud today’s vote was a fucking win for him….
This will be a post later
But the damn Democrats need to stop with this impeachment bull shit ….
It’s working against them….
House roll call on motion to table impeachment:
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2019/roll483.xml
137 – 95 Dem. (1 present; 1 not voting)
1 – 0 Independent (Justin Amash, Mich., who supports impeachment)
195 – o GOP (3 not voting)
332 – 95 Total (1 present; 4 not voting)
I doubt there’s enough space to list all 95 Democratic Ayes, let alone all 237 Democrats), but here is how some large Democratic delegations broke by numbers (as above, votes to table impeachment first):
23 – 22 California (the Speaker not voting)
10 – 11 New York state
5 – 8 Texas
12 – 1 Florida
9 – 4 Illinois
6 – 5 New Jersey
4 – 5 Pennsylvania
3 – 6 Massachusetts
2 – 5 Michigan
5 – 2 Maryland
5 – 2 Washington state
7 – 0 Virginia
As ALWAYS….
Thanks DSD….
Morning All….
New thread coming later….
Iran , eh?