Margaret Sullivan: “As Iowa journalist Robert Leonard talks to voters around his state, he finds himself baffled at the national portrayal of Joe Biden’s dominance in the presidential campaign. The local Democrats he encounters respect the former vice president, he told me, but many of them also feel his time has passed.”
“They’re far more excited about other candidates, five in particular: Sen. Elizabeth Warren; Pete Buttigieg; Sen. Kamala Harris; Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Cory Booker.”
“So he shakes his head at the extensive coverage and commentary that depicts Biden as almost a shoo-in for a nomination that’s more than a year away.”….
Politicalwire….
Huh?
Lets see?
Joe Biden LEADS in EVERY poll taken over the last several months….
He LEADS ALL the Democrats….
He LEADS Donald Trump….
Heck?
Even Donald Trump’s internal polling has Biden ahead….
And NOIT by single digits….
Mostly by double digits….
But above we have someone in Iowa saying….
“Oh, Nobody ‘s gonna vote for Joe Biden?’
Huh?
I know it’s dull….
Biden winning and all….
But THAT IS what’s going on around the country right now….
And the 2020 primary vote is less than 6 months away….
image…NYTimes
While my sons where around today for Father’s Day I asked them did they think Donald Trump would be a one term President?
Their answers where quick….
No….
Why?…. I asked very surprised….
Again answers came back without hesitation….
“Dad?…The Democrats are gonna lose because Donald Trump HAS the Republicans…The Democrats are fighting among themselves….
I had no comeback…..
Most people think that the incumbent President,whomever that may be, will be re-elected simply because,they usually are.
Indeed, in my lifetime, I can’t remember anytime when ,as the campaign is getting underway ,that there was any general feeling that the incumbent was going to lose ,and that includes Carter and George H Bush,the two that did.Ford was a special case as he had never been elected.
So, as with these early polls ,I take this kind of talk with the proverbial grain of salt.
Bluntly, I presume what your sons are saying is that the Democrats shouldn’t have a nominating process and should simply anoint a candidate and ,once again, no insult to your sons intended, but that kind of talk is simply stupid.
The above should have been your reply.
No with my sons….
They see the media looking hard for a horse race….
They would have NO problem with Biden….
Age for them is NOT an issue….
They think Sanders is a wild man…
Making promises that will never occur and cost too much…
They think little of Warren…
They have heard whispering about Harris and her time as DA and AG in California…..
They can’t name much of the rest of the field…
They are NOT excited about Biden…
But think the internal dickering about him will weaken him against strong Republican support for Trump…
And…
They think Americans are basically dumb and will keep eating Trump’s ‘shit sandwiches”…
Any serious follower of politics knows that Biden’s nomination is very far from inevitable.
It seems to me that Biden has gotten more than his fair amount of press – especially since he doen’t Make himself available as most of the other candidates. Biden gets press when Trump criticizes him – which is appropriate – and that has helped Biden’s candidacy – at least so far.
And so does Warren now that the media has a horse race story to play….
Attention IS ATTENTION.….
Good or Bad….
They’ve ALL had it….
So far Biden is keeping his longer with less visibility…
His polling numbers are doing the talking….
Sounds as if your sons could benefit from a basic civics lesson.
Every four years the party not occupying the White House has a “fight” for the nomination.(sometimes even the party in power does,see Carter v. Kennedy,)
There is nothing happening now that is out of the ordinary.
You said you had “no comeback.”
Maybe you need acivics lesson too.
You KNOW where they where talking about Jack…
Democrats are jangling for the nomination attacking while Trump seems to be able to lie and get over….
EVERYBODY can’t forget the guy wasn’t supposed to win….
No that’s not what you said.
You said that they thought Trump was going to win because the Demcrats were all “ attacking” each other and that you had no answer for that.
And ,of course ,the simple answer is that this is a normal part of the nomination process and that is what you should have told them.
Trump might be re-elected but all this “attacking” goes on all the time in the process.
Actually, this post of yours about your sons and your inability to respond was nothing more than utter nonsense.
It was like you had nothing to post so you thought you would post this.
i related their thoughts…
they aren’t junkies like us…
the Democrats seem divided and weak to them
my wife also see’s it that way
sure there will be primary race
but like others they JUST want Trump gone and think or more to the point are skeptical that Democrats can get their shit together to win against a guy selling bull shit and IS President….
i understand ur questions
it’s simple…
Trump is a lying knucklehead that seems immune to anything
now then listen to me give why Trump is actually not doing well
but they watch TV and see Trump keep talking and the media running to cover every time he farts….
perception
that IS what Trump sells
pisses me off
there are people who think impeaching Trump means he’s gone also…
Your continuous complaint about media coverage of Trump is old and agross irrelevancy
You do understand that Trump is President Of the United States?
Sure the media is going to cover him and his utterances.
Once again there’s nothing unusual about this.The media always covers the President and highlights all his sayings.
Just because we don’t like Trump doesn’t mean there is anything unusual or wrong in his extensive coverage by the media.
It’s what they do.
yes
but they do have the ability to cut back on the bull shit when they want to…
if i wrote it wrong my mistake
u DO understand how they feel…
I’ve wasted countless hours counting up the (re-)elections and defeats of sitting Presidents, and the rough answer is about one defeat for every two returns to office. Conveniently, five of the defeats (the Adamses, Van Buren, Cleveland & B. Harrison) were in the 19th century and half in the 20th (Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter & GHW Bush).
But Jack is broadly quite right: since the 20-year New Deal/Fair Deal era of 1933-53, the same party has held the White House for exactly 8 years, with the exceptions of 1977-81 (Carter) and 1981-93 (Reagan-Bush). But an 8-year GOP presidency alternated with a Democratic one 3 times from 1953 to 1973 and 3 times from 1993 to 2017.
Sitting Presidents returned to office:
1. Washington 1792
2. Jefferson 1804
3. Madison 1812
4. Monroe 1820
5. Jackson 1832
6. Lincoln 1864
7. Grant 1872
8. McKinley 1900
9. * T, Roosevelt (elected as VP) 1904
10. Wilson
11. * Coolidge (elected as VP) 1924
12. FDR 1936, 1940 & 1944
13. * Truman (elected as VP) 1948
14. Eisenhower 1956
15. * LBJ (elected as VP) 1964
16. Nixon 1972
17. Reagan 1984
18. WJ Clinton 1996
19. GW Bush 2004
20. Obama 2012
Carter maybe the key to Trump….
I remember how unpopular he was…..
I just read your opening comments and had three thoughts
1) What were you possibly thinking to say that the primary vote is less than 6 months away?
2) Why are you so obsessed with Biden’s poll numbers when the Iowa causcus is over 7 months away? If after the debates and intense campaigning, another Democratic candidate has better poll numbers than Biden in January 2020 – as is very plausible – will you continue this obsession with polling? (As if we don’t know the answer). I recall in 2016 several months before the election, polls were showing Sanders has a better chance against Trump but you disputed them, yet you want us to be obsessed with polls 17 months before the election?
Let the candidates debate, and let’s see how it plays out. I am hoping that Biden and the other Democratic candidates all excel. I still might vote for Biden in the primary – even if he is not my favorite right now. But It is still very, very early in the campaign, and we should all be open to changing our minds.
I’ve mentioned numerous times here that these early polls reflect name recognition more than anything else.
Reading much into them is not very wise.
I will start paying attention to them after Thanksgiving,about five months from now.
Of course that’s your option Jack….
But?
No matter….
You reads them everyday like the rest of the world and they DO register in your mind….
Guys?
Campaigns ARE reacting to Joe Biden and his leadership in the polls…
Ya can dance all you want….
Those who wait as Jack suggests?
Will be left far behind….
And THAT includes Donald Trump who has ALREADY starting throwing at Biden…
Me?
I don’t believe for one minute that these early polls are meaningless even if they do reflect name recognition….
WTF are the other Democrats traveling around the country and appearing on TV for?
President Trump has cut into former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in Wisconsin and the two are in a statistical dead heat in Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to a new poll of the 2020 race.
But the latest battleground states survey from Firehouse-Optimus also finds Trump’s approval rating is underwater in all three of the Midwestern states, which are the lynchpins of his reelection strategy….
More @ The Hill….
How is anyone being “left behind” and what the Hell does that even mean?
Look you can keep quoting these polls all day long as you are doing .Many of them contradict each other.
And yes it is early .
One day Biden is “ way ahead” of Trump .Now ,according to something called the “Firehouse/Optimus Poll”(which I have never heard of) they are in a”statistical dead heat”…yeah ,whatever.
Keep at it James,wouldn’t want you to be left behind!
Gross silliness.
He, he, he….
Yea….
The Firehouse/Optimus Poll seems like a outlier alright….
1) The Iowa and NH votes are in fact 7 months away….My mistake in math
2) I’m simply reporting on the FACT that Joe Biden LEADS EVERYBODY…IF all of what you say changes the polling?..It will change…But Joe Biden IS the leader that EVERYBODY is now chasing…
I have said here this time and before…Thge race for the nomination is good for the person in the lead…It makes them STRONGER…It is actually NOT very early…IF Joe Biden keeps his lead thru SC , California and on Super Tuesday?
He WILL have the nominatiion sewed up by March 3rd….
Lots of assumptions there. For one, if either Sanders or Warren drops out, I don’t think they will endorse Biden.
I would be surprised if the election is over by March 3. At some point, it will become a 2-person race, and while it is likely, it is not certain that Biden will be one of those two candidates. Recall how Guliani was way ahead at this point for similar reasons as Biden (he would be difficult to beat in the general election), well Guliani totally disappeared.
I agree that this will become a two person race,likely fairly quickly after March 3.
Biden is certainly a favorite to be one of the two left standing, absent a total collapse.
I don’t think Sanders or Warren drop out early either….