No doubt Elizabeth Warren is moving up in the 2020 Democratic nomination sweepstakes race….
In this polling in South Carolina?
Bernie Sanders drops to 4th place behind Pete Buttigieg….
Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a substantial lead over other 2020 Democratic candidates in South Carolina in a new survey, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) are gaining ground in the key primary state.
Biden has the support of 37 percent of the respondents in the Post and Courier-Change Research Poll released early Sunday, down 9 points since launching his campaign.
Warren’s support doubled from last month, however, with 17 percent of the state’s likely Democratic 2020 presidential primary voters now saying they would vote for the Massachusetts senator. Warren polled in fourth in the state last month with 8 percent of the vote.
Buttigieg came in third in the new poll, with 11 percent saying they’d vote for him in the primary. Eight percent of respondents said they’d vote for the 37-year-old last month….
image….RollingStone….
If Jack is around (a not on internet silence, hopefully for travel or — we all hope not — medical treatment), perhaps he could comment on this.
As I understand it, a large majority of South Carolina Democrats are Afro-American, and almost every Afro-American in S.C. (Tim Scott to the contrary notwithstanding) is a Democrat, although perhaps leaning to the more-conservative side of the party.
Yet the most prominent black Democratic candidates for President (e.g. not Andrew Messam), Senators Kamala Harris (9%) and Cory Booker (4%) don’t rank in the top three in this poll, or combined together win more than 0ne seventh of the SC Dem vote .
In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the SC primary by about 2 to 1, but eight years later, in 2016, Sec. Clinton beat Sen. Sanders by about 3 to 1.
Correction, Cory Booker got 5% in this poll, but he and Kamala Harris still don’t add up to more than 15%.
Been on a Caribbean cruise.
I expect the Black candidates to start showing better as the primary nears.The Black vote will likely constitute 65%-70% of the total vote in the primary.
As I’ve stated on several occasions I am not much for these early polls.
Indeed, I would expect either Harris or Booker or both to place in the top three by Primary Day.Further, I would be greatly surprised to see Buttigieg in the top three.
I agree with ya Jack on your states Democratic primary…
I’d bet that Biden gets the 2-1 vote and actually sews up the nomination with it and Super Tuesday…
I see little to no chance for Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg in the state…
It is worth noting that until Obama won Iowa in 2008, he was behind in South Carolina. If either Harris or Booker can exceed expectations in Iowa or New Hampshire, then I expect South Carolina blacks will support them, So it is my impression that blacks don’t want to support a black candidate unless that candidate has significant white support. With that said, it is also worth noting that Jesse Jackson did very well among black voters in 1988, even though Jackson had relatively little white support.
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Changing the subject, I just got back from the Dallas suburb, Plano yesterday morning. Plano is a surprisingly attractive city that appears to be loaded with many relatively new, upscale condos. The weather was great and I had the opportunity to eat very well on this trip, and to drink very well too! I didn’t discuss politics as my main contact there appeared to be a Republican. In real life, I am careful not to offend co-workers. On the internet, I am far more willing to confront someone (even allies) when I disagree with them. But of course, you probably already know that!
Congrats to Scot and the St. Louis Blues.
See the original story from the Charleston Post & Courier for far more useful and interesting detail, for example,
… Sanders had been the solid second choice of S.C. voters in previous polls. But Warren reversed deficits with Sanders among men, women, voters under age 50 and, most importantly, African Americans who make up a majority of Democrats going to the polls.
And she now leads the race among voters ages 18 to 34, a spot previously held by Sanders.
Buttigieg’s surprising run continues to strengthen.
The field’s youngest candidate, who was not even in the first S.C. survey taken in February, has moved up spots in each of the past two polls. This month, he received upticks in support from voters ages 65 and older, as well as independents.
Most notable is Buttigieg’s growing support from black voters. He collected 6 percent African American support, good enough for fourth this month, after he received none in May. Buttigieg sits between the race’s two main African American candidates — Harris, who has 11 percent of the black vote, and Booker, who has 3 percent.
Biden received a majority of black voter support in South Carolina at 52 percent, bolstered by a huge lead among African American women. Warren follows at 14 percent.
More Details here
All the 2nd, 3rd and 4th stuff is interesting….
But Biden WAS Obama’s VP….
Older Black folks are NOT Progressive’s as has been pointed out here and other places as Jack well knows…
THAT would also knock Buttigieg out of the box…
Harris unlike Obama, has a history of locking people up ,including black’s…
Booker just has not caught on anywhere….
I’m well aware of Bill Clinton’s mistake in thinking he could have his wife beat Barack Obama…
Harris and Booker aren’t in the same league as Obama…
We’ll see…
Booker could still break through his in SC.
I wouldn’t discount him so quickly.
Most Black political leaders in S.C. remain uncommitted.In my view, Booker could snag some of them and still wind up a factor n the primary.
Harris s already has a following ,particularly among a Black female group in Columbia,led by Bernice Scott, one of the best known Black leaders in the state.
I expect to see Biden’s support among Blacks to drop some as time goes on.Right now, a lot of that is simply name ID
I won’t forgive Booker for endorsing Menendez.
And his arguments are sometimes ridiculous. “we have to end gun violence”. Maybe we can end traffic jams too?
From what so have seen so far of Biden, he has been coming across as old -although there is no doubt that he is in better than average physical shape for his age. Do we really want someone in his late 70s to start his presidency? Missing some key party events only makes sense if you are deliberately trying to keep the candidate away from the public. As a general rule, I would like to see a president under 65. Bernie is too old too, but I haven’t noticed any mental decline. Trump is too old too, and it is obvious his mental skills have declined.
Donald Trump is in his 70″s….
Warren in here 60″s…
Pelosi in here 70’s…
Sanders older then. all the above….
Joe Bide will; be fine….
Trump would eat most of the young Democratic candidates for breakfast in a one on one….
I got to talk a bit about politics tonight at a family gathering with some very left-wing quasi relatives. one in particular, who has become quite an activist. (Out of respect for a bunch of people, I largely hold my tongue but they are interesting discussions)
She says she is leaning towards Warren, but think it is too soon to make a decision and that a surprise could occur. She thinks Biden (and Sanders) are too old. She knows Warren is only slightly younger, but thinks it’s different because she is a woman.
Warren WILL get some of the women vote from the left that sanders turns off….
I still believe that Biden’s ace is the Black vote….
Age is and should be an issue. Warren is older than I thought; I thought that she was in her mid 60s, but she comes across as very focused and exceedingly intelligent. Sanders does too,but to a much lesser extent. Biden is a smart guy, but I think he is showing some age-related decline – as eventually happens to all of us, and to most people by age 70.
Biden has difficulty answering questions, but then he always did. He tends to wander into unnecessarily long winding answers. Biden’s advisers will keep him focused and make sure he doesn’t abandon script, But the reality is that is not good enough, and it is not unreasonable to expect that he will get worse over time. Of course I recognize that there is no comparison to Trump. Biden is far superior snd even on this issue, Trump’s mental decline is far more obvious than any of the Democratic candidates. (As Corey might point out, I know nothing about Gravel!)