The 2020 election will rest Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania ….
It’s THAT simple….
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are ALREADY campaigning in those state for next years votes….
Joe Biden leads Trump in ALL of those above state in the early polling….
(Trump won those state’s by VERY small margins , mostly 2% or less of the vote)
First Michigan. Then Wisconsin. And now Florida. President Donald Trump is already on a narrow electoral path to a second term, largely of his own creation.
He will follow recent re-election rallies in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, with one near Panama City, Florida, on May 8. All three are medium-sized towns in key battleground states, all of which backed Trump in 2016. Trump’s travels show his campaign team is eyeing a 2020 electoral map that closely mirrors the one that put him in office.
Trump narrowly won Michigan over Hillary Clinton by less than half a percentage point, Wisconsin by less than a point and Florida by 1 point. But recent polls from each state suggest he is chasing the Democratic front-runners 17 months from Election Day.
For instance, he trailed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Michigan by an average of 8 percentage points in a hypothetical one-on-one race, according to polling data compiled by RealClearPolitics. An Emerson poll put former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Trump by the same margin in Wisconsin. And just 40 percent of Florida voters told Bendixen & Amandi International they think Trump deserves a second term.
“Look, it’s really going to be hard for the president this time,” said one former senior GOP Senate aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “I don’t think people realize that it’s going to be very, very hard for Trump to put all the puzzle pieces he had in 2016 back on the board.”….
image..abcnews.go.com
I’d hesitate to say that Trump “stole” those states from Clinton in 2016. He (guided by his pollstress, Kellyanne Conway) was just astute enough to campaign in the Blue Wall just before Election Eve when Hillary Clinton neglected it.
Those are exactly the places where the Clinton campaign should have sent Bernie Sanders (and for that matter Joe Biden) early and often, instead of confining Sanders to college campuses that weren’t going to vote R anyway.
To be fair, however, I myself wondered why Trump seemed to be wasting his time and effort in those previously-deep-blue states which had last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1984 or 1988.
Should the numbers in Pa, Mich., Wisc., & Fla still look unfavorable to Trump, his campaign manager Brad Parscale said they would aim for Bush states that had flipped to Obama in 2008 (or Kerry in 2004) and stayed with Clinton in 2016, such as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire.
He didn’t mention Virginia, but that would also seem to be a possible backup target, too (D.C. suburbs vs the shipyards, distilleries, small towns and countryside, e.g. Newport News, Lynchburg and Charlottesville.)
Ok…..
One COULD argue with the word choice….
But those states Obama kept for 8 years….
I have maintained here forever that Hillary Clinton simply was never a good campaigner…
Trump, in his own way had a better political sense than her….
Joe Biden has started off in PA and will be going after those 4 or 5 states that must be reclaimed by Democrats….
It IS important to note that those states have MODERATE Democratic voter majorities….
I would agree that a few of the Rust belt states won’t come back to Trump because he has done NOTHING to deliver on the BS promises of jobs in those places….
And…
Biden is going g hard after the labor vote…
I do look at the Dem’s as Biden vs Sanders….
And Biden simply fits better for the Democrats who ACTUALLY vote in primaries….