There probably is more…
But using the Silver template ?
I will make a personal observation…
Of the five groups?
Hillary Clinton got four….
Using that as a benchmark….
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and whole lot of others running in the nomination sweepstakes have NO Chance of winning…..
The group that they will command is the Left….
That IS a group that most of the mainstream media pays more attention to then any other….
But the other groups gave Hillary Clinton the nomination in 2016….
If Biden does NOT run?
The other groups will up fro grabs….
And they could, I believe, swing to Beto O’Rourke….
I’m also going to go a bit farther…..
The critical primaries ?
Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina and California…..and Super Tuesday…..
Those primaries I’m betting will be ones to either give Biden the nomination or pick someone else….
And I’m sure that despite the stories about a brokered convention?
Super Tuesday will just be the lock for the nominee ….
Nate Silver sees five key groups of Democratic voters that matter in the 2020 Democratic primary:
- Party Loyalists
- The Left
- Millennials and Friends
- Black voters
- Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)
“You’ll notice that these groups aren’t mutually exclusive… So rather than thinking about ‘lanes,’ we’re taking a more pluralistic approach with the Democrats. Candidates don’t have to pick any one group; rather, their goal is to build a majority coalition from voters in (at least) three out of the five groups. There are a lot of ways to do this: If you’re choosing any three from among the five groups, there are 10 possible combinations to pick from,2 and all of them plausibly form winning coalitions.”
“The other difference from how we handled the Republicans four years ago is that, with the exception of The Left, none of these groups are explicitly ideological in nature.”…..