Arizona
Nevada
Texas
Tennessee
North Dakota
Florida
Indiana
Democrats need to hold on to some US Senate seats while grabbing at least 3 from Republicans….
The chances are rated by most as 1 in 6 for this to occur and I myself thing Democrats would need a miracle …
They DO happen once in a while though…
Republicans, who hold a narrow 51-49 majority, have a much stronger chance of hanging on in the run-up to Election Day, when they have only one vulnerable incumbent, Sen. Dean Heller (Nev.), on the ballot.
Even with a promising GOP map, Doug Heye, a strategist and former spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said the battle for the Senate wasn’t likely to feature many “blowouts anyways,” meaning several races may very well be decided in the remaining days.
The overall showdown is being fought against a backdrop of deep polarization, political violence and racial animus that’s left a degree of uncertainty heading into Tuesday.
“It comes from underwhelming candidates in some cases and a polarized population in a lot of states,” Heye said. “In other cases, you have candidates who match up against each other pretty well.”
Democrats face a much narrower, but not impossible, path to winning back the Senate. Historically, the GOP should lose Senate seats during the first midterm of a Republican presidency, but Democrats are playing defense in 10 states that Trump carried in 2016, and where he remains popular.
They’ll need to run the table — flipping two GOP seats and holding on to their own vulnerable incumbents — if they want to win the Senate.
Democrats argue that the political atmosphere is trending in their direction as their candidates focus on issues like health care and protections for people with pre-existing conditions, areas where they feel they have an advantage because of GOP plans to repeal ObamaCare.
But they face growing headaches in states like North Dakota, where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) is trailing her GOP challenger, Rep. Kevin Cramer, by more than 11 percentage points, according to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics.
In a sign that Republicans feel they are poised to pick up the seat, Trump has no plans to visit North Dakota in the waning days of the midterm campaign.
Democrats, however, aren’t counting Heitkamp out. She was down almost 6 points in 2012 before eking out a 1-point victory…..
Two of the top three Republican lawmakers in Tennessee declined to explicitly say this week whether they voted for the GOP’s Senate nominee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn.
Sen. Bob Corker, the retiring chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, whose Volunteer State seat Blackburn is running to fill, and term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam, each hinted that they voted for Blackburn over centrist Democratic candidate and former governor Phil Bredesen — but declined to use Blackburn’s name when answering reporters’ questions….
More…
My rather amateur guess is that there are very roughly equal chances (say, 1 in 6 either way) of the Republicans keeping both Chambers and the Democrats taking both.
I.e., it seems equally unlikely that the GOP can keep some kind of majority in the House of Representatives as that the Democrats could take back the Senate.
Of course, there has to be some finite chance greater than zero that both could occur (a Democratic Senate with a Republican House), but that chance must be extremely small.
And some of the most important races are so close that we might not really know the result until the middle or end of next Thursday the 8th.
Yea….
The Senate does look alright for the GOPer’s…
But a LOT of those states are close…
All this I believe is just for 2 years….
Schumer should become majority leader come Jan 2021….
The GOPer’s have too many seat to defend in the 2020 election