The well know polling analyst lives little wiggle room is coming out with a forecast that joins almost every other in saying the Democrats WILL will a majority of seats in the US House for next year….
FiveThirtyEight founder and election forecaster Nate Silver on Monday offered his final projections for the midterm elections, arguing that a number of factors are conspiring to make Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House “fairly slim.”
Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority.
“Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans,” Silver wrote.
Silver said Republicans still stand a slim chance of retaining the House majority thanks to a strong economy and favorably drawn districts. The latter factor, Silver wrote, forces Democrats to win the popular vote by at least 5 percentage points to secure the majority.
Democrats, however, are aided by President Trump’s low approval ratings, strong fundraising numbers, a large number of Republican retirements and a historical precedent of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms, Silver noted.
“Democrats have been dealt a good hand and have done a great job of playing it, maximizing their number of opportunities to make seat gains,” Silver wrote. “There’s still a chance — about a 15 percent chance — that their voters won’t turn out in the numbers they need, and they’ll fall a few seats short.”
“But it would require polling and a lot of other data to be fairly wrong, and it would defy a lot of historical precedent as to what happens in midterm elections under unpopular presidents,” he added.
Republicans have a more favorable path in the Senate….
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