The Republican dream of having a tax cut for their rich and confirming a wounded Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court isn’t gonna stop the Democrats regaining a majority in US House and probably limiting the Republicans to a 1 or 2 seat gain in the Senate and losing a half a dozen Governorships….
And Trump’s rants have gained him base voters, but also turned off some Republicans who now say they actually vote Democratic….
It may not turn out to be a Tsumni…But it does look like a wave….
After the Kavanaugh hearings, public and private polling in Iowa, North Carolina and West Virginia did show Republicans regaining ground in a slate of districts deep in Trump country. Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa) got $1 million in TV air cover from Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-aligned super PAC, after initially being written off by national Republicans. Polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College showed Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) jumping out to a 10-point October lead after being tied with his Democratic opponent in September.
“The Kavanaugh hearings did set us back, but it depended on geography,” said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster, noting that “the more upscale districts, where we’ve done well all cycle, it was to our benefit there, and in more downscale districts with rural pockets, it was a challenge.”
Meanwhile, a pair of crises just a week out from Election Day — the massacre of 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue and the arrest of a suspect for mailing pipe bombs to a number of prominent Democratic politicians — have further unsettled the electorate just before the midterm vote.
“Everything suggests that we are a country that’s on edge, and I think that’s going to translate into participation,” said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster. “But the reality is that many voters in this country hold Donald Trump responsible for the divisive rhetoric these days.”
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But a cheery economic picture may not be enough to hold the line among independent, suburban voters like Angie Blake, a 44-year-old nurse who met Holding’s opponent at festival in Holly Springs last weekend.
“I’ll be honest, I hadn’t heard of [Linda Coleman] *before,” Blake said. “But I voted for a straight Democratic ticket because this country’s gone too far off the rails….
* in Raleigh, GOP Rep. George Holding is defending another red-leaning district against Democrat Linda Coleman, a former state legislator who has previously waged two unsuccessful campaigns for statewide office.
First Read: “In the past week or so of the 2018 campaign, something definitely happened — in favor of the Democrats and at the expense of Republicans.”
“We saw it in the weekly Gallup poll, which had President Trump’s approval rating down 4 points to 40 percent; we saw it in our NBC/Marist poll of Arizona, where Democrats are doing as well on the ballot test with likely voters as registered voters, suggesting enthusiasm is on their side; and we saw it in the New York Times Upshot/Siena and Monmouth polls of key House races, which have Democrats ahead or in strong position to upset GOP incumbents.”
“Is this due to movement after the pipe-bomb scare and Pittsburgh? Is this the political environment snapping back to where it was pre-Kavanaugh? Or is it just noise and a false sense of where things truly stand? (After all, it was six days before Election Day 2016 when the polls had Hillary Clinton up 6 points in Wisconsin.)”…
Politicalwire…
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Mike Allen: “With less than a week until Election Day, top operators in both parties tell me the events of the past week have helped lock in the split decision they have long seen coming: The House flips to Dems (probably decisively), and Republicans hold the Senate (and perhaps gain two seats).”
“Democrats who had grown skittish about taking the House say they’re resting easier.”
“Some top Republicans tell me they worry that their candidates will pay a price following the anti-Semitic murders in Pittsburgh and the arrest of a rabid Trump supporter for the mail bombs.”
Said one GOP official: “World looks crazy and we are in charge of it.”
Reuters: “After two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, the Democratic Party faces a strong chance of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives in next week’s election, with Republicans likely to keep the Senate.”…
Politicalwire…