The Republican dream of having a tax cut for their rich and confirming a wounded Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court isn’t gonna stop the Democrats regaining a majority in US House and probably limiting the Republicans to a 1 or 2 seat gain in the Senate and losing a half a dozen Governorships….
And Trump’s rants have gained him base voters, but also turned off some Republicans who now say they actually vote Democratic….
It may not turn out to be a Tsumni…But it does look like a wave….
After the Kavanaugh hearings, public and private polling in Iowa, North Carolina and West Virginia did show Republicans regaining ground in a slate of districts deep in Trump country. Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa) got $1 million in TV air cover from Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-aligned super PAC, after initially being written off by national Republicans. Polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College showed Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) jumping out to a 10-point October lead after being tied with his Democratic opponent in September.
“The Kavanaugh hearings did set us back, but it depended on geography,” said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster, noting that “the more upscale districts, where we’ve done well all cycle, it was to our benefit there, and in more downscale districts with rural pockets, it was a challenge.”
Meanwhile, a pair of crises just a week out from Election Day — the massacre of 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue and the arrest of a suspect for mailing pipe bombs to a number of prominent Democratic politicians — have further unsettled the electorate just before the midterm vote.
“Everything suggests that we are a country that’s on edge, and I think that’s going to translate into participation,” said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster. “But the reality is that many voters in this country hold Donald Trump responsible for the divisive rhetoric these days.”
But a cheery economic picture may not be enough to hold the line among independent, suburban voters like Angie Blake, a 44-year-old nurse who met Holding’s opponent at festival in Holly Springs last weekend.
“I’ll be honest, I hadn’t heard of [Linda Coleman] *before,” Blake said. “But I voted for a straight Democratic ticket because this country’s gone too far off the rails….
* in Raleigh, GOP Rep. George Holding is defending another red-leaning district against Democrat Linda Coleman, a former state legislator who has previously waged two unsuccessful campaigns for statewide office.