Look at Feinstein’s numbers, eh?
Nelson and Tester seem to be back in safe territory right now ….
| Thursday, October 25 |
• Polls:
- FL-Sen: Florida Atlantic University: Rick Scott (R): 42; Bill Nelson (D-inc): 41
- MO-Sen: OnMessage (R) for Josh Hawley: Josh Hawley (R): 49, Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 42 (April: 47-46 Hawley)
- MT-Sen: Montana State University Billings: Jon Tester (D-inc): 47, Matt Rosendale (R): 38
- NJ-Sen: Rutgers: Bob Menendez (D-inc): 51, Bob Hugin (R): 46
- NV-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters & UVA: Dean Heller (R-inc): 47, Jacky Rosen (D): 41 (Sept.: 46-43 Heller)
- TX-Sen: GBA Strategies for End Citizens United: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 50, Beto O’Rourke (D): 46
- TX-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters & UVA: Cruz (R-inc): 49, O’Rourke (D): 44 (Sept.: 47-45 O’Rourke)
- WI-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters & UVA: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 54, Leah Vukmir (R): 39 (Sept.: 52-39 Vukmir)
- WV-Sen: Fabrizio Lee for the NRSC: Patrick Morrisey (R): 44, Joe Manchin (D-inc): 42
In Missouri, most polls, including those from GOP firms, have given Hawley a small edge. The only other recent survey we’ve seen that found Hawley ahead by more than 3 points was an early October poll from the GOP firm McLaughlin & Associates, which is not one of our favorite pollsters.
Frustratingly, this is the first poll we’ve seen in all of October of the Montana Senate race. It seems too good to be true to hope Tester is ahead by this much, but we need more data.
The Ipsos polls are also a bit wonky. Last month, Ipsos likewise found Democrats doing better in the Texas Senate race than they were in Nevada. We noted at the time that Nevada has been a difficult state to survey in the past, and pollsters have often had trouble reaching the state’s highly transient population; polls that are conducted only in English, like this one, have also often understated Democratic support in the Silver State by failing to reach a proper universe of Latino voters.
One other very strange thing in all three states Ipsos polled is how few respondents identified themselves as independents. For instance, in Wisconsin (where Ipsos’ survey was generally good for Team Blue), about 570 likely voters were Democrats and 470 were Republicans, but just over 90 were independents—a mere 8 percent of the sample. By contrast, in CNN’s 2014 and 2016 Wisconsin exit polls, independents made up 27 and 30 percent of the electorate, respectively. (The Nevada and Texas polls also showed a similarly tiny proportion of independents.)
We’re generally reluctant to criticize pollsters based on their party affiliation samples, since voters’ party identification can shift based on current events. What may seem like too few Republicans in a poll, for instance, could be the result of voters angry at Trump casting off (if only temporarily) the GOP label. Still, even in these polarized times, it just seems very unlikely that so few voters in each of these three states would identify as independents, and it could indicate that Ipsos’ samples are off.
Finally, this is the first poll we’ve seen giving Morrisey any kind of lead in West Virginia since May, though a late-September poll for a GOP super PAC had a 45-45 tie. Two recent surveys from GOP firms gave Manchin 4- and 5-point leads, while an independent poll from Strategic Research Associates had him ahead by 16….
Oct. 25
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U.S. House Kansas-Maine
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-house-predictions-kansas-maine.html