Political Dog 101

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As the Midterm Elections comes closer….Democrats come back down to Earth….

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If the polling is anywhere near correct?

Democrats WILL take control of the US House and will make gains in Governorships…..

But the ‘Blue Wave’ appears to be NOT a tsumi….

Now this ole’ dog would like to be wrong…

But I don’t think so….

 

Pundits and forecasters that are talking about up wards of 50 House seat’s turning over from Republicans to Democrats are stretching things….Democrats need 23/24 seats from the Republicans….

That they are almost assured of….

My guess would be more like 30 to 40 seat gain….

 

The Senate is different…

If polling is anywhere close to what will be the outcome on November 6?

Republicans could come out with an increase of 2 to 3 US Senate seats instead of a Democratic upset gain of the same  amount which would put Chuck Schumer as the Senate Majority leader…Don’t bet on THAT…

The problem for Democrats is the same one it has ALWAYS been…

With more registered Democrats and increasing numbers of Independent voters?

Democrats STILL have problems getting their supporters to actually come out and vote….

Last week on facebook I had a conversation with a local community guy about Democrats….

He was about protests….

I reminding him about getting out the vote…

His reply was he didn’t trust voting and said why bother?

Why bother?

Why?

Because Republicans count on this reasoning to have enough votes to get their guy elected President…

Because Republicans count Democrats NOT voting so they can get their people elected to actually BE IN Congress and State and Local offices….

The REALITY is the fear and hardcore campaigning Republican’s do works….

The ‘going high’ of Democrats does NOT get out the vote….

And this is why the media can push all they want….

But in the end?

It’s who actually comes out and cast’s their ballot in a democracy…

It’;s THAT simple….

And Republicans ‘get it.’ and don’t need the protests….

They just need the count…

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  1. I’m in good company with my post….

    The latest CNN Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

    Harry Enten: “Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren’t razor tight…..”

    More…

  2. Why Democrats thought they have a chance to take Senate seats in Tennessee and Texas is beyond me.

    The last time a Democrats won a a Senate Race in either state was Thirty years ago.You know when Ronald Reagan was still President, when Bill Clinton was still just Governor of a small southern state ,when Michael Dukakis (remember him) was the Democratic nominee…I really get tired of all this hoopla surrounding races where the odds of winning are remote as the Cleveland Browns winners the Super Bowl.

    No Bredesen is not going to win in Tennessee.I don’t care about some poll that shows him close.All such polls always show large numbers of undecided,most of whom are Republicans who call themselves “independents because they are pissed at the Republicans over something or other but are always going to come home in the end.

    And poutring Millions into a futile race in Texas is the height of foolishness.

    It’s past time that the Democrats start concentrating on places where they have areal chance and quit chasing these will o the wisps in these deep red states.Its a colossal waste of time.

  3. I disagree Jack, if nothing else this is about Party building.

    Beto’s Campaign will most likely help several House candidates across the finish line in Texas and will get thousands of young voters voting for Democrats for the first time. The same with Tennessee, although Phil isn’t a likely youth candidate. Swift’s endorsement has introduced a new generation to politics.

    As far as money is concerned the Democratic Party is rolling in it at a grassroots level. The money that has gone to Beto is from small donors and once folks like that start contributing they continue to give. There is no evidence that either candidate has taken money from other candidates with a better chance at winning.

    The fact that Beto has out raised Canadian Ted without taking PAC money means thousands of people are engaged in the political process. Isn’t that a good thing?

    Do you think Joe Cunningham should give up and not run in your open seat for Congress?

    As of last night the Democrats have a 12 point lead in the generic Congressional ballot. Competing on all levels raises all boats right?

    • GOP pollster John McLaughlin said Sunday that Republicans may be able to fend off Democrats’ efforts to take back control of the House in November’s midterm elections.

      Speaking on AM 970’s “The Answer” in New York, McLaughlin told host John Catsimatidis that the key to a Republican victory next month is retaining enthusiasm felt by GOP-leaning voters following the successful confirmation of President Trump second Supreme Court nomination, Brett Kavanaugh…

      More…

    • By doing the running ‘everywhere’ strategy and having the money to do so?

      Democrats INCREASE their chances for more ground gains

      It is normal to see some of wishful thinking fade away..

      People just have to finish strong ….

      • We had this discussion on Politics1 way, way back, from both sides of the aisle, and agreed that party-building is important even where your own party doesn’t seem to have a prayer because you don’t want to leave your supporters stranded and demoralised (down-ballot races are also important).

        And (as opposed to Jim Carville, Paul Begala and Kellyanne Conway *), this was the 50-state strategy of both Howard Dean as DNC chairman and Michael Steele during his brief tenure heading the RNC.

        * who focussed on about a third of the states, say 16-18, but didn’t spend money (or as they would see it “waste money”), advertise or organize in the other thirty-odd states where the outcome seemed certain one way or the other. Of course they still raised money in those other states. 2016 was a very graphic illustration of what can go wrong with such a strategy, when Hillary Clinton’s Blue Wall just crumbled.