He explains that Trump and Republicans could get the same ideological bent form several other choices for the Supreme Court with less hurt….
President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not afraid to take unpopular actions in pursuit of their ideological goals. Last year, they spent many months trying and failing to pass a repeal of Obamacare, even though those efforts were extremely unpopular. And they passed a tax bill that was highly unpopular at the time of its passage, although its numbers have since improved some. The Supreme Court is at least as much of a priority for Republicans.
The difference on Kavanaugh is that there are several other conservative nominees who could potentially replace him — and who may have been better picks in the first place. In other words, you would think Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have better options than rolling the dice with Kavanaugh. Amy Coney Barrett, for example, a judge on the 7th Circuit and one of Trump’s reported finalists when Kavanaugh was chosen, has several advantages from the GOP’s point of view. She’d potentially be more conservative than Kavanaugh, at least on issues such as abortion; she’s already been confirmed (to her circuit seat) by the current Senate; and it might not hurt Republicans to choose a woman when the four conservatives on the current Supreme Court are all men….
Silver has the same problem you do James.
Nothing he talks about has anything to do with what’s happening.
You both don’t realize or accept the unbridled hatred most Republicans have for “libruls” and the “media.”To abandon Kavanaugh now would signal a victory for either ot both of what they view as the “enemy “
Conservatives are going to get a conservative Justice.That is a foregone conclusion.Worst case scenario?Kavanaugh withdraws and Trump appoints an ideological clone.
Now though? It’s all about the fight against the enemy.Silvers simple logic has no place in a war and that’s what this has become.
Right now I think there is a 70% chance Kavanaugh is confirmed. 20% chance that 2 GOP Senators (some combination of Murkowski Collins Flake) vote against him thus dooming his chances–and. 10% chance his nomination is withdrawn.
I concur with those odds.
I’m putting his odds at confirmation at 99% (I have been wrong before about 99% hunches, such as the last Presidential general election), but I think he is getting confirmed and it will be a profound victory for justice.
Yep. Odds are both you and Trump will be very happy with the result.
And why shouldn’t you be?
You’re both anti choice, anti women’s rights, anti LGBT rights, pro rights of the 1% REPUBLICANS.
I don’t know what Trump believes. I know what I believe.
I am Pro-Life (talk about the rights of the 1%), pro-women, and in no sense am I “anti-LGBT.”
Regardless, I do not know what Kavanaugh has to do with this.
I do not consider the issue of abortion something the Supreme Court is going to determine and I have no idea how Kavanaugh will decide on any sort of judicial matter. I consider abortion primarily a matter of winning over hearts and minds throughout society.
“I don’t know what Trump believes”
Do you give a shit what Trump believes? I don’t see why. Youre getting a result out of him thst you consider “a orofoubd victory for justice”
Don’t pretend tjatbyou would have the same exhilaration at seeing someone like Merrick Garland–who is not a right winger (and not accused of sexual assault)– on the Court.
So again as to what Trump “believes”? I dont give a shit. The cnd result is the same.
I don’t really care too much about what believes since I have long since already determined he is a horrible human being, and I consider that paramount.
Well you both have the same tastes in Supreme Court justices.
I think he would have preferred his pro-choice sister based on things he said before and if you read the “books” about what goes on inside the White House, he wanted Rudy Giuliani (also pro-choice and very pro-LGBT, with the crossdressing to prove it), because he believed Rudy would be loyal to him.
It takes the “Steady State” people in the White House to take these sorts of decisions away from Trump and pick actual conservatives.
So Trump really wanted to pick a pro choice pro marriage equality liberal to the Court but his hand was forced into putting a right winger
Whatever you have to tell yourself to sleep at night. Nust know how delusional and idiotic this makes you sound.
Do you not believe the reporting of Michael Wolff and Bob Woodward?
I thought that was the Trump fans insistence.
As for Merrick Garland, had a Democrat been elected President in 2016, I cannot imagine that I would have opposed him being confirmed to the Court. I certainly would not be embracing a strategy of using any sort of uncolloborated slander to prevent it or to besmirch his name.
Republicans were very open and transparent from Day 1 about why they would not confirm him to the court. They did not have to lie about him to do so. The voters decided they agreed with the Republicans on the matter. Every single one of us knows the Democrats would have done exactly the same thing if the shoe were on the other foot.
The big difference here is that there is no way that Republicans would have engaged in such a strategy to stop Democrats from getting on the Court in normal situations, such as what is being done to Kavanaugh and what was done to others before him who were nominated by Republicans.
But if you want this to be the “new normal”, maybe that is what will wind up happening on both sides moving forward. For society, I hope we never stoop to that level.
Back again to Garland, why was it that Hillary Clinton refused to say she would nominate him if she won?
It’s because she wanted the option of making her own selection as well, and that would have been her right.
Those pining for Garland should have least felt a bit of joy from the fact that Judge Kavanuagh has a daughter named Liza.
It is interesting that you know “there is no way” that Republicans would have done this or that in relation to a DemocraticSupreme Court nominee.
How do you “know” this?
Well, they never have before. The whole “past is prologue” thing.
Every single vote on a Democrat nominee for the SC got a bunch of Republican yes votes.
But if they did what the left is doing to Kavanaugh, they would be wrong.
So you are “ assuming “ what you “ know.”
Ok.
It would have been interesting if the roles had been reversed.Lets assume a President Hillary Clinton would have nominated a well known liberal federal judge and former Justice Dept. Official to the Supreme Court in a Senate with a narrow Democratic Majority.Lets then assume that a woman contacted lets say Senator Ted Cruz claiming along ago sexual assault ?p by the nominee,
Do I believe that a well known partisan like Cruz would have ignored the same?No.Would I assume that other Republicans would not have acted in the manner of Democratic Senators in the present matter?No I wouldn’t.
In the highly partisan atmosphere presently existing in this country,much of it attributable to the boorish actions of the present Chief Executive,I would make no assumptions based on past actions.
If they would have done that, and there was nothing to back up the allegation, they would be wrong, and I would be the first saying it.
Yet you have said, as the true partisan you are ,that “there is no way” Republicans would ever do such a thing.
Essentially then I presume you oppose this woman even being allowed to address the issue before the committee because you have prejudged the matter and decided that her claim is bogus.
That’s interesting coming from one who has become so judgmental of others in the past year or so,Indeed has reveled in his self declared sanctimony.
Look this is very simple.Kavanaugh is a conservative Republican.You are a conservative Republican .Youre for him and Nothing is going to shake your support.OK I get that but save us from such statements as “there is no way” Republicans would ever do this or that.
Nothing but partisan garbage.
You have no idea what Republicans will or won’t do.After all ,they nominated and elected as President Of the United States one you yourself have described as “scum.”
No, let her testify (I doubt she shows up. We will see. I don’t think she ever had any intention of testifying under oath.)
If this were an actual courtroom, there never would have been grounds for a proceeding, but this is a political trial of course, and since it is undeniable that many women have been the victim of sexual assault, and we want to express our support for them, she should testify, and anybody else who wants to accuse Kavanaugh should show up and testify too right after.
When they are done, he should have his say and then a vote should be held.
CG?
The GOPers just didn’t allow a vote…
There just isn’t an instance of these plays in the GOP playbook. It’s never happened before. Democrats have done this before. It’ s in their playbook.
Republicans tend to vote to confirm Democrat Supreme Court Justices, but in this partisan environment, probably will not in the future, and it will require a President and a Senate being of the same party to ensure someone goes through.
I don’t like that fact, but it’s going to be reality.
Elections have consequences
To the victors goes the spoils
That includes the US Supreme Court
Let’s acknowledge that Trump just wants a court that will save his ass
“Every single vote on a Democratic nominee for the SC got a bunch of Republican yes votes”
How many Republican yes votes did Democratic nominee Merrick Garland receive?
There was not a vote on him.
Republicans said why from Day 1
Hillary refused to say she would allow his nomination to go forth either.
It’s just a theory, but I don’t think Obama truly intended him to be on the court either. He was the one picked to taunt Republicans with. Had they agreed to a vote, he probably would have been withdrawn.
I was calling for a vote on Garland once Trump was nominated. I was certain Trump could not win. I turned out to be wrong, and the voters wanting a Republican to name the next few Supreme Court Justices was a distinct reason why. A whole bunch of people voted for Trump *solely* on that issue. (Not me though, I could never bring myself to do that.)
So Trump REALLY didn’t want to pick a right winger and Obama REALLY didn’t want the man he picked to actually wind up on the Court.
Theatre of the Absurd here today.
My record on these things are pretty good. Please do something so the Cardinals win tonight over Milwaukee?
Scott hit it on the head, if Hillary had been elected I am certain that the Senate would have moved on Garland’s nomination. Because the Republicans would have preferred his age if nothing else.
Silly twisted logic to justify someone with a record of sexual assault being placed on the Supreme Court by a slim Republican Majority that fears the midterms.
But today’s right wing meme appears to be the “doubt” that Dr. Ford won’t testify, and that’s simply another way of inferring that she’s lying.
What about the next accuser?
Had Hillary been elected she probably would have picked someone other than Garland. The Senate should have moved forward on whomever she picked, and Senators should vote yes, if the person was qualified and not corrupt.
Keep looking for accusers. They do seem to be less credible down the row. Desperation will do that.
Desperation
You mean like going on FOX News and claiming you couldnt have sexually asaaultrd anyone in high school or college because you were a virgin till the age of 25?
So the old white men on the Committee have now hired a woman to question Dr. Ford.
The pussies!
A prosocutor Keith….
So we’re back to ridiculing women accusers, how very Georgetown Prep of you Corey.
There appears to be another accuser who will hold a press conference tomorrow. Once again they will most likely ask that the FBI investigate the specific charges.
Strange that Kavanaugh and the Republican Majority won’t go along.
This is shaping up to be “Long Dong Silver” redo. Republicans seem to love putting perverts on the Highest Court in the Land.
But, I am sure Dr. Ford won’t testify after putting herself through this anti-woman ridicule.
Is that the Avennti one Keith?
With him repping her?
If that’s who you are talking about?
We are in for a whole new ballgame
Breaking
Jim Sciutto
Breaking: Senate Judiciary Committee has scheduled the vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh for 9:30am Friday, following the Thursday hearing…..
Twitter,,,.
Is the vote going to actually happen?
Nate Silver is Right
Give it up Brett