The forecast, at this time, a little less then 3 months out , is for anywhere from 14 to 58 seats….
FiveThirtyEight has launched its House forecast for this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats currently have a 75% chance to win control with an average predicted gain of 35 seats.
ABC News: “But there are a ton of seats in play — FiveThirtyEight rates 112 as at least somewhat competitive — and with more than two months before Election Day, the forecast shows a wide range of potential outcomes.”
“Democrats could quite plausibly gain anywhere from 14 seats to 58 seats… In other words, at this point, it would not be surprising if Democrats fell a few seats short of the majority, or if a “blue wave” swept dozens of Republicans out of office.”….
My gut tells me that 80% odds sounds about right. My guess is that the remaining undecideds will break for the Democratic candidate. The election is 2.5 months away and I just don’t see almost anything that is going in the GOP direction at this time that would reverse the tide.
Yeah I agree with Zreebs. 80% seems about right considering the Dem shift so far in special elrctions coupled with the large numbers of House GOP retirements.