The call centers on the observation that Democrat Beto O’Rourke has been closing the gap on GOP US Senator Ted Cruz in the polling……
I did a piece on this yesterday….
In it I doubted that O’Rourke will be able to unseat Cruz….
I still don’t….
The polling on almost every race below the US Senate race has clear Republican leads….
Will Texan’s vote Republican on most races and then change over Democrat O’Rourke?
Of the eight general election polls aggregated on RealClearPolitics, six showed Cruz at between 47 percent and 51 percent. In those same six polls, O’Rourke was between 39 percent and 43 percent. While O’Rourke has room to grow, Cruz is consistently closer to and in some cases at or above 50 percent. In a state as Republican as Texas, those last few points that O’Rourke needs to hit 50 percent are going to be very hard (and very expensive) to get. There are some observers who believe that there simply aren’t enough Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents voters to push O’Rourke across the line. In fact, a Democrat hasn’t represented Texas in the Senate since 1993 when appointed U.S. Sen. Bob Krueger served for six months (Democrat Lloyd Bentsen served from 1971 – 1993). There are others who believe that O’Rourke can attract some more establishment Republicans who just don’t like Cruz. In a cycle like this, it is hard to simply dismiss such a proposition.
Suffice it to say that O’Rourke has made incredible progress in a pretty red state, at least when it comes to running for statewide office. The race moves to Lean Republican. Whether it ever gets to Toss Up remains to be seen….
Democratic Socialist Dave says
James, your headline reads “Cook people move Texas US Senate Race …”, but this extract seems to be from Real Clear Politics (not Charlie Cook).
[Unlike Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, RealClearPolitics does have a clear right-wing inclination.]
New poll has Beto within 4 points of Cruz
Update on Texas US Senate….
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 49% to 43% lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas US Senate race.
Cruz has led in every poll of the race taken in the last year. The average poll over the last two months has him ahead by 6 percentage points….
(I am still VERY doubtful that O’Rourke can pull off a win down there)
Replying to @ForecasterEnten
Good thing you don’t live in Texas. We are fighting harder for Beto than anything we’ve ever done. Publishing polls as foregone conclusions is wrong-remember 2016? Will never trust polls again. You poll the people who will give you the answer you want.