…from Daily Kos….
MS-Sen-B: Former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy is out with a poll from The Mellman Group arguing he very much has a path to victory in this special election. They first take a look at the Nov. 6 nonpartisan special election and find appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leading with 29 percent, while Espy edges GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel 27-17 for the second place spot in a likely runoff three weeks later. They test Espy against both Republicans in hypothetical runoff scenarios and finding him leading Hyde-Smith 41-38 and defeating McDaniel 45-27.
It does feel unlikely that Espy could hold a small lead over Hyde-Smith if the two GOP candidates outpace him 46-27 in the primary. McDaniel has been trying to run to Hyde-Smith’s right, so it seems too much to hope for that enough of his voters would be very open to backing a Democrat like Espy (even in an officially nonpartisan race) over Hyde-Smith, or that they would just overwhelmingly choose stay home in a runoff. However, we don’t have many other polls to work with….