…from Daily Kos….
MS-Sen-B: Former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy is out with a poll from The Mellman Group arguing he very much has a path to victory in this special election. They first take a look at the Nov. 6 nonpartisan special election and find appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leading with 29 percent, while Espy edges GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel 27-17 for the second place spot in a likely runoff three weeks later. They test Espy against both Republicans in hypothetical runoff scenarios and finding him leading Hyde-Smith 41-38 and defeating McDaniel 45-27.
It does feel unlikely that Espy could hold a small lead over Hyde-Smith if the two GOP candidates outpace him 46-27 in the primary. McDaniel has been trying to run to Hyde-Smith’s right, so it seems too much to hope for that enough of his voters would be very open to backing a Democrat like Espy (even in an officially nonpartisan race) over Hyde-Smith, or that they would just overwhelmingly choose stay home in a runoff. However, we don’t have many other polls to work with….
I would be astounded if Espy were to win this special election.
A Democrat hasn’t won a Senatorial election in Missssippi in 36 years.Mississippi elections are notoriously racially polarized.
I also find the results of this poll puzzling.Why would people ,who voted for one of the two conservative Republicans ,turn around and vote for the Democrat in the runoff?Yet that is sort of what’s neing implied here numbers wise.
Additionally there is apparently a fairly large undecided vote of over 20% in the runoff matchups.
So,my answer to the questioning headline is…
No, at least not in this contest.
….from Sabato….
Moving south, we continue to be skeptical that former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) can ultimately beat Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) after the latter won a runoff with the help from President Trump. Georgia is a racially-polarized and right-leaning state, which to us probably gives an edge to Kemp, who is white and conservative, over Abrams, who is black and liberal. But the potential for strong black turnout and a poor environment for Republicans hurting Kemp suggests that our Likely Republican rating is probably too bearish for Abrams. We’re moving the open Georgia gubernatorial race to Leans Republican. Keep in mind, though, that the winner has to actually get 50%+1 to win outright in November. If no one does that — there is a Libertarian on the ballot — there will be a December runoff, where turnout may be lower and the electorate potentially more Republican. The presence of a runoff, to us, helps Kemp because it ensures that Abrams can’t win with a plurality.
Meanwhile, we’re now less than two weeks away from the Florida primary, where it appears as though Rep. Ron DeSantis (R, FL-6) and former Rep. Gwen Graham (D, FL-2) are the frontrunners in their respective primaries…..
More…
I would give Abrams very little chance of winning the Governor race in Georgia.
10% maybe and such would assume the largest Black voting turnout in history.
There is nothing to indicate anything like that.