It’s a little more than 3 months to go and the trend according to Sabato’s outfit is increasing pointing to a Democratic led US House…
Pundits have been talking about money, generic’s and enthused voters….
The Crystal Ball now points to the races themselves….
— Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.
— We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.
— One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes
|Member/District||Old Rating||New Rating|
|French Hill (R, AR-2)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Charlie Crist (D, FL-13)||Likely Democratic||Safe Democratic|
|Steve King (R, IA-4)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|David Young (R, IA-3)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Andy Barr (R, KY-6)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Mike Bishop (R, MI-8)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|NM-2 Open (Pearce, R)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|John Carter (R, TX-31)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|John Culberson (R, TX-7)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms. The Housegeneric ballot, which has generally been at around a Democratic lead of between six to eight points, is at the higher end of that range right now. But more importantly for the House battle, for most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP (Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22)…..
the orignal heading credited Charlie Cook for this data..
That was incorrect..