It’s a little more than 3 months to go and the trend according to Sabato’s outfit is increasing pointing to a Democratic led US House…
Pundits have been talking about money, generic’s and enthused voters….
The Crystal Ball now points to the races themselves….
— Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.
— We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.
— One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes
| Member/District | Old Rating | New Rating |
|---|---|---|
| French Hill (R, AR-2) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
| Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
| Charlie Crist (D, FL-13) | Likely Democratic | Safe Democratic |
| Steve King (R, IA-4) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| David Young (R, IA-3) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| Peter Roskam (R, IL-6) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| Andy Barr (R, KY-6) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| Mike Bishop (R, MI-8) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
| Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| Mike Kelly (R, PA-16) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| John Carter (R, TX-31) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| John Culberson (R, TX-7) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
| WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
….
Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms. The Housegeneric ballot, which has generally been at around a Democratic lead of between six to eight points, is at the higher end of that range right now. But more importantly for the House battle, for most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP (Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22)…..
Note….
the orignal heading credited Charlie Cook for this data..
That was incorrect..
The Democrats ARE gonna lead the US House come January….
PENNSYLVANIA CD17 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
@ConorLambPA (D) 51%
@KeithRothfus (R) 39%l
Likely voters:
Standard model – Lamb 53 / Rothfus 40
Dem-surge model – Lamb 54 / Rothfus 39
#PA17 #Midterms2018llks?
Monmouth Polling
Penn did a redistricting…..
Democrats could hold 9 of the 9 districts
This would give House Dem’s at least 4 of the 24 or so they need to make Pelosi the Speaker again…
Today is a Good day for Democrats
They just need people to come out and actually come out and VOTE in November…
You’re completely misattributing this piece, James (which doesn’t do much to increase your overall credibility).
It has nothing to do with Charlie Cook’s Political Report, since the source is, instead, the Crystal Ball of Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Poliics.
© Copyright by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia
Yes DSD
I DID misnamed the polling site
I have corrected that
Thank you for the correction
It’s Nate Silver day here at the PDog…..
Here he asks if state races mean anything to Congressional House/Senate races….
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Spent all day (I’m a super cool person, this is what cool people do) looking at whether the results of state legislative elections provide meaningful information about a state’s partisanship when trying to predict Congressional elections. The answer is… YES.
More.…
Stuart Rothenberg
@StuPolitics
If you trust the July 9-11 Fox News poll and the July 15-18 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey — and I have no reason not to — the GOP still looks headed for a difficult election and the likely loss of the House.
No, President Donald Trump’s voters are not fleeing him, and his personal poll numbers have not cratered even after his behavior at the NATO summit in Belgium and his Helsinki meeting with Vladimir Putin. So, maybe he really could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters. But that says something about Trump’s supporters, not the overall electorate.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the combination of national and state polling continues to show the party’s vulnerability as November approaches….
More…