Cook Political Report (Dave Wasserman) joins other pundits in forecasting a Democratic take over of the leadership of the US House next year…
Cook also points out something else….
Republicans who do not have Trump’s back?
Are all but gone…..
With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and popular moderates like Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) and Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), have given Democrats stellar pickup opportunities.
Of Republicans’ 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent. History is working against the GOP in many of those seats: we found that since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column.
To NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers’s credit, only one additional Republican has retired since Ryan’s announcement on April 11: Rep. Tom Garrett (VA-05), who in May said he would leave to seek treatment for alcoholism. But in a wave environment, 42 seats is a dangerous level of exposure: If Democrats win even eight of the 42 (our current ratings pin eight as Lean/Likely Democratic and four more as Toss Ups), they’ll already be over a third of the way to a majority…..
Ratings Change: Races for 2 GOP Seats Shift to Toss-Ups
In 2010, Texas Rep. Pete Sessions led Republicans to a historic 63-seat gain in the House and a new GOP majority as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Now, he’s at significant risk of losing his own seat.
Sessions represents the Dallas-area 32nd District, which Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points in 2016. It’s the type of suburban, college-educated area that has been revolting against President Donald Trump since he took office. But for much of the cycle, Sessions benefitted from a fundraising advantage and a competitive Democratic primary, which was only decided in a May runoff….
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More than 800 miles away, it’s clear that Kentucky GOP Rep. Andy Barr is in deep electoral trouble as well.
Trump carried the Lexington-area 6th District by 15 points, but Democrat Amy McGrath is more than just a viral-video sensation. The Marine pilot not only won a competitive Democratic primary over Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, she benefited from the early advertising and attention. McGrath starts the general election sprint with higher and more favorable name recognition than many of her fellow Democratic challengers across the country….
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