…from Politico…
Mexicans on Sunday appear likely to elect a left-wing populist president who has campaigned on standing up to President Donald Trump, potentially ushering in a more confrontational era of U.S.-Mexico relations on everything from immigration policy to trade.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City who styles himself as a champion for rural Mexico, has enjoyed a double-digit lead over the other top candidates from the country’s major parties for months.
His vows to eradicate violence and official corruption — long unaddressed by outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s ruling PRI party — have played a major role in lifting him to the head of the pack. But his pledge to defend Mexicans from Trump, coupled with his nationalistic rhetoric, has also bolstered his standing with Mexican voters.
López Obrador traveled through the U.S. after Trump was elected to advocate for Mexican immigrants living in the states and even published a book called “Oye, Trump” (“Listen Up, Trump”) that condemns Trump’s plans to build a border wall and “his attempts to persecute migrant workers.”
Mexico “will never be the piñata of any foreign government,” López Obrador, 64, told more than 90,000 supporters at a rally here to close out his campaign on Wednesday.
The election of López Obrador — like Trump, known for his impulsive and nationalistic tendencies — could further strain U.S-Mexico relations. The candidate, nicknamed AMLO, says illegal migration to the U.S. should be addressed with economic development programs, not a border wall. And while he supports continued talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, he’s also been a critic of free trade in the past, arguing that Mexico needs to be more self-sufficient….
image… Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
I and James were posting at the same time at different places. Here is what I just posted to the Open Thread (based on what I saw on Telemundo, the U.S. Spanish-language network owned by NBC):
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (“AMLO”), of the populistic National Revival Movement (MORENA) coalition, won a decisive majority of 53 to 54% of the popular vote in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. Since Mexico’s presidents are limited to one single 6-year term, he will serve from 2019 to 2025.
[The two other principal candidates, Ricardo Anaya and José Antonio Meade, supported by coalitions that included the traditional Institutional Revolutionary, National Action and Democratic Revolutionary Parties (the PRI, PAN & PRD) split most of the other votes, Anaya wining about 22-23% and Meade about 16-17%..]
Both outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto, (of the historically-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI) and President-elect López Obrador made very conciliatory speeches, praising civil liberties, peaceful debate, social harmony, a free press and independent institutions such as the Electoral Commission.
In his victory speech, AMLO seemed to go out of his way to reassure Mexicans that he would not follow the path of Venezuela’s Hûgo Chávez, but proceed in a fully lawful, peaceful fashion. In many ways, his speech reflected the style of Barack Obama, with touches of Bernie Sanders. He promised to maintain the independence of the Bank of Mexico and fiscal discipline in the government¹s own budget. He laid particular emphasis on fighting corruption (a long-standing complaint of Mexican citizens). He also promised to increase social justice and equality, with particular mention of indigenous people, sexual minorities and migrants. He offered friendly relations with the United States.
For a good up-to-date summary see:
Mexico election: López Obrador wins presidency as rivals concede (BBC News)
Left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is heading for a clear victory in Mexico’s presidential election.
Electoral officials said a quick count after Sunday’s poll indicated the former mayor of Mexico City had won with about 53% of the vote – more than double that of his nearest challenger.
Exit polls also put Mr López Obrador, known by his initials Amlo, well ahead.
His closest rivals have both admitted defeat and congratulated Mr López Obrador on his victory.
Ruling party candidate José Antonio Meade, who lies in third place according to initial results, told supporters that he wished him “the greatest success”.
Mr Meade’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has dominated Mexican politics for much of the past century but has slumped in popularity.
Ricardo Anaya, candidate for the conservative National Action Party (PAN), looked set to be runner-up to Mr López Obrador.
“I recognise his triumph, I express my congratulations, and I wish him the greatest success for the good of Mexico,” Mr Anaya said.
Official Estimates:
53.8% – Obrador
22.8% – Anaya (conservative PAN & left-wing PRD)
16.3% – Meade (ruling centrist PRI)
_5.5% – Rodríguez (indep.)
NAFTA is finished. Neither Trump nor Obrador want it. so consumers in both countries will have to pay more for goods with essentially no aggregate changes to employment in either country. The protectionism advocated by Republicans was able to win the GOP side votes in 2016, but it will be a long-term failure.
Lastb Trump comment on NAFTA was he WOULD sign something AFTER the midterms….
As you would caution me Z?
We gotta wait….
AMLO and Trump ARE gonna have to bend a bit…(Same thing with Canada in the end I’d bet)
I believe America is Mexico’s biggest trade partner and LOT of American goods are made there to come back across the border
The bottom line is that if both Mexico and the US feel that the current trade agreement is unacceptable, then I don’t see any realistic path to an agreement, Hopefully I am wrong
If each President (or President-elect) were able to find a real bottom line for his country’s people, then they might be able to negotiate a deal that seems more satisfactory to both of them.
But
(1) I don’t think that, for all his boasts, Donald Trump is able to negotiate a real plus-plus deal if it means he has to give up anything tangible (e.g. the border wall, the diversity lottery, family reunification), and
(2) Whatever deal the presidents might feel comfortable with is going to displace and upset some of their own compatriots. Both have to deal with representative Congresses that will fight for those interests (which is why presidents of both parties always ask for 100% up-or-down ratifications without amendments), although the political complexion and structure of the two Congresses are rather different (at least three parties in Mexico versus a stark two-party split in the U.S.)
In the end?
Trump almost ALWAYS backs down to get a deal…
AMLO is gonna be a new guy….
My feeling is he WILL need an agreement….
Both will spin the agreement to look ‘STRONG’ for themselves…
Same goes for Trudeau….
In the end, I don’t think Donald Trump can take “Yest” (or “Sí”) for an answer unless he can make it look like unconditional surrender.
Remember how he tore up the communiqué he’d just reached with the other six G 7 leaders in mid-flight, apparently out of pique at how he thought Justin Trudeau had characterized him.
Dave, that is why I said “any realistic path” instead of “any path” Trump previously said the agreement is too one-sided in favor of Mexico – “Worst agreement ever”.
If Trump backs off and declares victory – which is possible – then it is a legitimate campaign issue to discuss how he failed to make the agreement more in the US interest. Some people voted for him because he convinced them he was a good negotiator and would make “better deals”.