Beware of bad forecasts based on bad polling analysis ……
To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they’re defending in states that President Trump won in 2016 — plus pick up two more seats.
Why it matters: That’s not happening. A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll of key states shows Dems would lose three of those red-state seats while picking up two GOP seats — still short of the majority.
Why it matters: It’s looking nearly impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate. So the stakes are even higher for them to win the House if they’re going to have any kind of congressional check on President Trump.
The state of play: The polls shows three Democratic senators are poised to lose their seats to Republicans — Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Bill Nelson in Florida and Joe Donnelly in Indiana.
- Be smart… Democrats would pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada, while Republicans keep their seat in Tennessee…..
More @ Axios
The Axios treatment of this poll is basically “How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart”.
I’m going to save you a click. Jim’s “analysis” is based on one poll, that poll is of registered voters, doesn’t take into account margin of error, discusses the poll in terms of finality, and then uses the Breaking News siren incorrectly. Verdict: DUMB AND BAD “analysis”