There where actually 12 Special elections yesterday….
The one in the forefront was the AZ-08…..
As expected….
Debbie Lasko (R) came away with a win…..
But the media view of the results was not the win itself….But WHAT the win seems to say….
Donald Trump carried the House district that Trent Franks (R) left by 21 %points ….
Lasko won last night by only 5 %points…..And the GOP spent a lot of time and money there….
Predictions of a ‘wave’ election casting out the current Republican majority in the House and a possibility of trouble also for Republicans in the US Senate are looking more possible ….
It is now reasonable to say out loud that Donald Trump’s performance as President has embolden Democratic voters to come to polls in even local , state and Congressional election’s in larger numbers….Midterm elections traditionally have less enthused voters…Maybe not this time….Add that to the historical vote against the President in the White Houses’s party and you have a BIG worry for the Republicans who see their party leader clueless to the political landscape below him falling away….
Democratic candidates have exceeded expectations in each special election since President Trump took office, which included dramatic wins for Rep. Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania and Sen Doug Jones in Alabama….
…
Debbie Lasko (R) won a special election to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) by 53% to 48%, in a district won by President Trump by 21 points in 2016.
Nate Silver: “The outcome represented a 20-point swing toward Democrats relative to the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is derived from how the it voted for president in 2016 and 2012 relative to the country… If Republicans are winning by only 5 points in this sort of extremely red district in November, dozens of more competitive seats will flop to Democrats — more than enough for them to take the House.”
David Wasserman: “There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It’s time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November.”
….
Top Republicans have conceded for months that they’re likely lose the House in November’s midterms. But some well-wired operatives now tell Axios that President Trump may face his real nightmare: losing the Senate, giving Democrats both ends of the Capitol, and one-third of the government.
Why it matters: It’s not just that Democratic dominance at the Capitol would speed impeachment proceedings and trap the White House in a thicket of oversight probes and hearings. Twin losses would be a massive repudiation of Trump and his brand of Republicanism, just as he embarks on his reelection.
…from Bloomberg….
… Even if Democrats fall short in 2018 in Congress, a presidential win for the party in 2020 almost certainly would get them the rest of the way to majorities in both chambers. If President Donald Trump does win re-election, then Republicans would regain their majorities, even if Democrats do well this year. I have to say, however, that I now see a real possibility that Democrats could do so well in the House this year that their new majority might even survive a presidential loss in two years…..
More….
I asked this before….
For CG since NYCmike doesn’t visit here anymore….
How are partisans over at HHR handling the view that a Democratic ‘wave’ is forming for the November midterms that most likely will erase their GOP majority in the House and is generating murmurers of a possible Schumer led Senate.?…
I haven’t been commenting there in a while. Perhaps you can go over there yourself and look and maybe join in the discussion yourself.
I did note that some people (not me) seem to think that there is a backlash developing against Democrats over David Hogg, the Parkland student, whom some people there seem obsessed with and that a “Red Wave” is forming. Not sure if they are just bs’ing or not. Probably not.
Thanks…..
Obsessing over Parkland survivor David Hogg may get a few right wingers energized. Then again he is unlikely to be in the news this fall as much as he was in April.
And if there were truly a backlash forming because of his activism you’d think that would help Republicans do better than a 5 point win in an April 24tb special election in a district they should carry by 25 or more.
So yeah I think it’s Hogg-wash.
A I’ll wind is blowing across America’s political beach….
It is pushing a wave it appears
Lesko’s winning margin in the AZ-08 shrinks….
Although early results showed that Debbie Lesko (R) beat Hiral Tipirneni (R) in Arizona’s special House election by six points, 53% to 47%, the Republican’s winning margin decreased after new votes were counted: Lesko 52%, Tipirneni 48%….
Politicalwire…