Six months ago the Generic House polling had Democrats up by double figures….
Today they are still ahead….
But the margin has dropped on the average in polling to a single number….
Trump’s support remains strong with White non-college Americans…
While that average is enough for Democrats to get a majority probably next year in the House…..It means that Democrats cannot rest and assume anything….
The media narrative withstanding….
Democrats will have the same issue come election day….
Getting out the vote….
Democrats hold an advantage ahead of the midterm elections, but a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that edge has narrowed since January, a signal to party leaders and strategists that they could be premature in anticipating a huge wave of victories in November.
The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trump’s approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.
One potentially new factor in the mix of midterm issues is gun policy, which has emerged as a major voter consideration two months after the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. More than 4 in 10 registered voters say it is extremely important that candidates share their views on gun issues. Fewer voters say it’s critical that candidates share their views on Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), leaders who are most likely to be targets in partisan messaging this fall.
With the Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent…..
Trump approve/disapprove (NBC/WSJ)
Whites/no college degree: 52-44%
White men/non-college degree; 55-41%
White women/non-college degree: 50-47%
White men/college+: 43-54%
White women/college+: 30-68%