A new ‘Q’ poll has this race closer than anyone might image in Red State Texas….
Now we’re 6 1/2 months out from election day 2018….
And this IS Texas we’re talking about….
So’ hold your horses’….
But with all this Democratic ‘wave’ stuff going on?
Maybe the Democrats CAN get enough people to show up and vote and pull another surprise win in a Red state?
We may just have ourselves a Senate race in Texas. A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) just barely ahead of his Democratic opponent, Rep. Beto O’Rourke — 47 percent to 44 percent.
And though polling of this contest has been sparse this year, and Cruz remains the favorite in the red state, this result seems to cement the Texas race as a top target for Democrats as they battle to retake the Senate in 2018.
Though Trump won Texas, his margin of victory over Hillary Clinton was only 9 percentage points — the closest Texas had been in a presidential election for two decades. And the Quinnipiac poll finds that the state’s voters aren’t particularly thrilled with Trump’s performance in office — 52 percent of respondents disapproved of it, while 43 percent approved.
O’Rourke’s fundraising numbers have been impressive too — powered by grassroots small donors who seem to really want Ted Cruz gone from the Senate, O’Rourke raised more than twice as much money as Cruz did in the first quarter of this year and has a comparable amount of cash on hand to the incumbent senator.
However, Quinnipiac also found that O’Rourke still wasn’t particularly well-known statewide, with 53 percent of respondents saying they didn’t know enough to form an opinion of him. Cruz will seek to take advantage of this situation by trying to define his opponent….
image of O’Rourke on the left and O’Rourke….texastribune.org
I posted a comment here and it disappeared too.
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) challenged Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to participate in six debates across Texas, two of them in Spanish, during their U.S. Senate race, the Texas Tribune reports.
That’s dumb of O’Rourke.
What did you say when Marco Rubio wanted to speak Spanish in a Univision debate against Patrick Murphy and was told he couldn’t? He was not even insisting Murphy debate in Spanish.
Dumb?
Probably NOT…..
People who are remotely persuadable in that race will roll their eyes at that kind of stunt from O’Rourke.
Of course, they will and should debate in English.
And in Spanish….
No, they should not debate in a language in which both are not fluent speakers. That’s just dumb.
If Marco Rubio were insisting his Democrat opponent debate in Spanish, you would be saying the same thing.
What percentage of Texas voters speak Spanish?
Gotta be a good amount….
This isn’t quite that unusual on this continent.
Canadian politicians have been debating in both English and Spanish for decades. Ever since the Bilingual-Bicultural Commission’s report in the 1960’s, it’s been expected that at least some of the nationally-televised debates (usually 1 out of 4) be in French.
It’s certainly been a struggle for someone like Preston Manning of the (anti-multicultural) Reform Party to speak good, fluent French, or for some of the leaders of the Bloc Québécois to speak fluent English.
But they both do well enough to follow the flow of debate and get their respective basic points across.
We have one official language. If two candidates wanted to debate in a different language, they both know, that’s fine.
Since a lot of people in Texas speak Spanish, (although not james’ beloved Castro Brothers) there will be ample opportunities for them to watch live debates with Spanish translation.
And “Lyin” Ted responded by challenging Beto to a debate in Canadian.
Beto is less than 10% behind Cruz in the polls…..
And remember what Trump said about Cruz’s father?
WTF should he be embracing Trump?
Apparently, because Cruz is a “servile little puppy dog” after all.
Barring a major development, Cruz probably wins by about 11 or 12 points when all is said and done.
If Cruz wins?
Less than 10%
Then CG makes a $100 donation to a charity of my choice (provided he has no moral objections to the charity).
And you will do the same if Cruz wins by 10% or more? (with statistical rounding up.)
No changing what we agreed on. No rounding up or down. A 10.00001% win you win; A 9.99999% win I win.
Yes. I will do the same. Donate $100 to a charity of your choice provided I don’t disagree with it. (advance notice, I won’t support a pro-life charity). If you tell me the charity now, I will tell you if it is okay. It probably is. If you like, I am also okay with sending the check to a third party (perhaps James) so he can verify that the check was made and sent.
Rounding up is always used in statistical analysis of political races and other things. You should not win at 9.99.
If you want, we can say that anything in the statistical MOE leads to a push. Nobody wins.
Yes, we will have to agree on the charities beforehand. It doesn’t have to be today, but let me know yours first.
The honor system in paying up is fine with me.
We previously said that if Cruz wins by more than 10% you win and by less than 10% I win. With that said, if you want to agree that no one wins between 7.5% and 12.5%, that is okay too if you prefer.
I’ll provide you with some charities soon. Any chance that you would be okay with a charity for something like transgendered youth, homeless LGBT, environmental awareness or some environmental action group?
If those don’t work, then how about some charity for economically deprived children?
My compromise is nobody wins between 9.5. and 9.99 %. (I always incorporate rounding up when crunching election results, but that’s fine)
There will almost certainly be a winner if we stick to that.
I would have to read up on the specific charity, such as saving the transgendered whales, etc, I don’t have a moral objection to things along that line, but want to see exactly who they are and where the funds go. Of course, it’s hard to go wrong with doing something for … the children.
The agreement was 10%, not 9.5% for me to win, but 10% for you to win. If you are already trying to change the agreement, I have my doubts that you will eventually pay the bet – even though I still feel you most likely will lose.
What we hadn’t agreed to was the amount. Is $100 okay? Is there a way we can verify that the loser paid their bet so that the loser will be shamed on this site if they don’t pay? Perhaps you feel the same way about Democrats as I feel about Republicans, but I don’t believe there are a lot of Republicans with high integrity that they will do what they promise. I do think that most (but certainly not all) Republicans are evil.
When I said homeless LGBT, I meant to say homeless LGBT youth. These kids are likely to have a poor self image and are at an especially high risk of contracting HIV. It would be nice for them to have somewhere to sleep, and not have to negotiate for access to a bed. With that said, I don’t know of such an organization, but I have to believe one exists. Maybe Keith knows of one? I usually only donate to charities through my church or work. My church gives to local charities, while my work usually favors national well-known charities.
What organization would you like to support?
To me, 9.5 % and up is the same as 10%, statistically, but I already compromised on that. If it falls into that small window, it’s a push. The terms are already plenty favorable to you and I think you realize that.
$100 is fine. I was willing to trust you on the honor system and after all, I am the person who paid up on a 1k (charity) bet after Hillary lost, so I think I’m pretty honorable when it comes to things like that.
If I lose, I will pay online by credit card, and will forward the “Thank you for your donation” confirmation page to “The Dog.”
I am not going to donate thru your church. If you can find a website for a charity dealing with homeless LGBT youth, I will be willing to look it over.
You didn’t compromise anything. What charity would you want me to support?
I don’t see where CG has “compromised” anything.
Indeed if Cruz wins by ten points it will be the smallest margin of any Senate victor this century.
John Cornyns smallest margin has been 12% and that was awhile back.As I pointed out earlier,Cruz won by 16% six years ago.
Indeed, CGs prediction of a Cruz 10 point win would be the best Democratic showing in a Senate race in Texas in many years.
If the final vote margin indicated a 9.5 to 9.9 spread, to me that is the same as 10 points, whereas a 9.0 to 9.4 spread is equivalent to 9 points.
When we look at election results or polls, and someone got 52.7 of the vote, we always consider it 53%
The “compromise” is that if somehow Cruz wins by 9.5 to 9.9, it’s a push and nobody has to pay up. Statistically speaking, it’s unlikely to occur.
Ok
On Cruz I think he pulls it out
A win is a WIN
But I think Beto , if he loses, cows in under 10%
You are doing the less than point routine
I’m not….
BTW?
If Cruz loses?
Holy Shit!
THAT will be the story of the night after the Democrat House majority gain…
There are lots of charities. Perhaps the Anthony Rizzo Family Foundation in their efforts to fight childhood cancer.
But if you wanted to go the quasi-political or ideological route, I would reserve the right to follow suit of course. Of course, as long as there no “moral objections.”
Cruz won by almost 16 points six years ago.
It was a Presidential election year.
Midterm?Better opposition?Enthused Democratic base?
Cruz wins between 7-12 is my guess.You each have a 50/50chance I’d say.
Hey, it wasn’t in moderation!
I have been working on things Z….
Perhaps another thing that the wagerers should agree on beforehand is the numbers that will be used to calculate (to whatever degree of precision) the respective candidates’ percentages.
(1) Is it the difference between Cruz’ percentage of the total valid vote (including third and fourth candidates) versus O’Rourke’s percentage of the total valid vote ? Or are they just percentages of the simple sum of Cruz’ numerical vote and O’Rourke’s ? (Anyone who’s looked at a copy of America Votes will understand the distinction.)
(2) What about spoiled, blank, split, challenged, fraudulent, late and otherwise uncounted ballots ? Do they form part of the total on which the percentages are calculated. Different jurisdictions treat these invalid ballots in different ways.
(3) What source will you use ? Presumably, you’ll go directly to the Texas Secretary of State’s web-site to confirm your numbers. But what report will you use, and how long would you wait if the margin is very close to 10.0% — the preliminary overnight returns, the collated returns a few weeks later, the final report to the Governor and Legislature or the final, final, official numbers as certified by the election authorities and the Legislature ?
total certified vote including all candidates (if the outcome of the wager goes down to the wire)
Unlike the Presidency DSD?
Just the OVERAll VOTE….
PERIOD
I expect Ted Cruz to keep his job as a US Senator from Texas….
But the guy HAS to be a bit worried…..
A new Texas Tribune poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads challenger Beto O’Rourke by just five points in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 36%….
Politicalwire…
Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
YouGov finds Ted Cruz leading Beto O’Rourke 50-40, while Texas Tribune/ University of Texas give Cruz a smaller 41-36 edge. #TXSEN
The bigger margin poll is likely voters
The closer one registered voters