We’re talking about Texas folks….
A Attorney General in the blemished Donald Trump vein wins STRONGLY of Course with Trump’s endorsement….
But?
Democrat James Talarico IS polling even with Paxton 5 months out from the November election….
UPDATE….
Cook Political Report shifts Texas Senate rating toward Democrats after Paxton runoff victory
The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Texas Senate race toward Democrats on Tuesday, from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” after state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the marquee race’s GOP runoff.
….
“Ken Paxton, the scandal-scarred attorney general of Texas and loyalist to President Trump, defeated Senator John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff election on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, casting out the state’s senior senator and bolstering Democratic hopes of flipping the seat,” the New York Times reports.
“Lifted by a late endorsement from Mr. Trump that infuriated Republican senators, Mr. Paxton overcame accusations of personal misdeeds and professional corruption, as well as a substantial fund-raising disadvantage, to prevail in one of the nation’s most expensive and acrimonious Republican primary races.”
Texas politics…..
Over the past decade, the Texas Republican Party deftly navigated the rise of MAGA. It retained the backing of wealthy business interests in the state while expanding its support with middle- and working-class voters. In particular, it has drawn Mexican American voters from the Rio Grande Valley into the Republican coalition. But the party is weaker than it seems.
Because Republican primaries, not general elections, frequently decide who is in power in Texas, politicians like Mr. Paxton often need only the votes of about 3 percent of the population to ultimately win office. That’s made it a lot easier for Republican politicians to drift to the right of Texas’ broader electorate.
Consider, for example, the issue of abortion: The average Texan is conservative when it comes to reproductive health care, but not as conservative as Mr. Paxton, the state’s attorney general. According to a 2025 poll, 83 percent of Texans think abortions should be legal in cases of rape or incest; 82 percent think abortions should be legal to preserve the mother’s physical health; and 84 percent think abortions should be legal if doctors determine that a fetus will die before or not long after birth. By contrast, in 2023, Mr. Paxton went to great lengths to try to prevent Kate Cox from getting legal approval to terminate her pregnancy after she found out that her fetus had a fatal genetic condition.
This kind of ideological gap exists not only between Mr. Paxton and many Texas voters, but also between him and other Republicans. The bitter primary battle between Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn deepened a divide between Texas’ chamber-of-commerce-style Republicans and the harder-right MAGA faithful. Mr. Paxton got Mr. Trump’s endorsement at the 11th hour. Wealthy donors spent tens of millions trying to help Mr. Cornyn, to no avail.
All this leaves an opening for a candidate like Mr. Talarico — a member of the Texas House of Representatives who blends progressive ideas with an overt embrace of his Christian faith. The question now is whether Texas Democrats can take advantage of it.
Millions of Texans have spent decades in a no man’s land between a Republican Party that caters to its primary voters and a Democratic Party that won’t meet them where they are. Mr. Talarico has a chance to offer them a politics that’s both Democratic and Texan.
His most direct path to victory runs through college-educated voters, who are more likely to vote than those without college degrees. If Democrats can turn out these voters, particularly in places like Dallas and Austin, destinations for many prosperous transplants, they’ll increase the chances that he’ll prove recent polling right and eke out a narrow victory.
But there are limits to appealing to those voters: What plays in some precincts won’t always fly in the rest of Texas. Adopting the priorities — and the language — of college-educated suburban voters has alienated some voters in other key constituencies. It’s one of the reasons Texas’ growing Latino electorate hasn’t saved Democrats, as some people in the party once hoped.
Mr. Talarico, to his credit, has taken pride in campaigning in parts of Texas that Democrats previously all but conceded. He acknowledges that he hasn’t always made headway with skeptical voters, but he and other Democrats will need that willingness to take the fight into Republican territory to gain ground in 2026 and beyond….
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Whatever happens, Texas Democrats will need a message that fits their state. Recall that what brought Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign so close to beating Senator Ted Cruz — he lost by just 2.6 percentage points — was that it was authentically Texan despite his popularity with liberals around the country….
Note….
Just to be truthful?
It would BE a miracle for Talarico to pull off a win for the US Senate in RUBBY RED Texas folks….
Quote of the Day
“To call Ken Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer suffering from an eating disorder.”
— Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), quoted by the New York Times, on the new Republican nominee for Senate in Texas.