Like Senator Bernie Sanders?
Moderate Democrats do NOT want see the New York House Rep. be a serious 2028 Presidential contender …
Her running IS just media hype….
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (36 years old) is NOT a serious 2028 Democratic Presidential choice….
She just is NOT ready….
And has NOT made ANY move to BE ready…
(She polls back in the pack , in the single digits)
Could she make a serious run Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer’s seat?
Absolutely !
And she’d have Good Chance…
But of course that would lose New York’s Minority Leaders spot…..
But New York voters probably do NOT care much about that….
The Mandani lean is NOT gonna work outside the 5 Boror’s of New York City folks….
Moderate Democrats are on a mission to stop the next Bernie Sanders, starting with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
- Third Way, an influential center-left group, is bringing together hundreds of elected officials, party leaders and operatives here this weekend to build a case for nominating a middle-of-the-road Democrat — not a liberal — for president in 2028.
Why it matters: Centrist Democrats’ efforts to shape the next election have taken on a new urgency as liberals such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others have unexpectedly won races.
- It’s a reflection of the deep divisions within the party over how to take on President Trump’s MAGA Republicans.
What they’re saying: Third Way president Jon Cowan kicked off the event Sunday by taking shots at Ocasio-Cortez, the most high-profile democratic socialist eyeing a White House run.
- In a speech at the grand, 12-story Francis Marion Hotel, Cowan said that since 2018 political groups tied to AOC and Sanders “have flipped zero” battleground House seats, making it a risk for the party to pick a liberal as its standard-bearer.
- A spokesperson for Justice Democrats, the group that helped elect AOC, shot back that its focus is challenging “corporate Dems in deep-blue seats,” not flipping GOP seats.
- Cowan also blasted other liberal heroes, slamming “out-of-touch teachers’ unions,” criticizing “the language police,” and telling Democrats to “stop peddling the idea that there are tens of millions of nonvoters just waiting to be mobilized by a left-wing siren song. It is delusional and widely debunked.”
- Cowan also said exit polls showed former Vice President Harris was seen by voters as “more extreme” than Trump in 2024.
Between the lines: Third Way, one of the chief opponents of Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential bids, isn’t alone: Since President Trump won a second term, new center-left groups such as Searchlight Institute, Majority Democrats and Next American Era have urged the party to move to the middle.
The other side: Liberals rolled their eyes at the centrist gathering, saying that the Democratic establishment’s favored nominees have lost to Trump twice. They think a muscular populist vision will inspire people to come to the polls….
…
For many far-left Democrats, it’s AOC or bust in 2028.
- Left-wing Democrats are quietly escalating efforts to persuade New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president. One big reason: They see no clear alternative. Bernie Sanders (84) is too old — and no other Sanders-like pol with national punch is emerging.
Driving the news: Allies tell Axios the pitch to Ocasio-Cortez and her team is essentially this:
- She’d enter the race polling in the top five of potential Democratic contenders, and as the liberal heir to Sanders.
- Her high profile would allow her to raise $100 million online without a single in-person fundraiser.
- There’s a window of opportunity for a left-wing nominee that may not come again for a generation. Democratic-socialist and liberal victories in New York City and elsewhere — with potentially more this fall — have changed the political playing field.
- Her candidacy would force Democrats to debate issues she and Sanders care about, such as Medicare for All and Gaza.
- If her candidacy faltered, she could drop out early and still make a run for Senate in 2028, for the seat now occupied by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer…..
image…The Guardian
“Moderate Democrats” are not exactly a significantly large group in American politics.
Maybe NOT….
But AOC is NOT what mainstream Dem’s want….
Nor do they want Bernie either….
Or Buttigieg and Shapiro seem to working to get onn this list also…
Really?
I see it as Newsom vs Harris in the Early sweepstakes drawings
Oh, they don’t have to have ‘a lot’….
Just enough to sink ya in the South Carolina Democratic 2028 primary....
I will tell you one guy who is almost certainly not winning the 2028 South Carolina Primary…. Gavin Newsom.
But that is a long, long, long way off. We ought to just hope we still have a Republic by then. Take things as they come.
We’ll see?
I’d bet on him vs Kamala with Blacxk male Democratic voters any day….
And Newsom IS STILL ahead in the RCP average…
Black women Democrats vastly outvote black male Democrats and I just do not see black voters gravitating towards Newsom.
I do think there is probably about an 85 percent likelihood the winner of the SC primary will be a black candidate. The person to watch is Wes Moore.
Wes , like Shapiro IS having problems back home….
Harris cannot win there without Black males voting……
Remember a good amount of them DID NOT vote for Harris…
and actually voted FOR Trump!
They are both going to win reelections in landslides. That is a “problem” a lot of politicians would love to have.
However, winning big as a Democrat in PA is a much bigger deal than winning big in MD.
And I guarantee you that both Moore and Shapiro have better polling numbers as Governors of their home states than Newsom has in California.
Newsom is termed out he’s running for Presiodent NOT Governor….
I admittedly cannot claim to have ever been a black male, but I have been observing politics for most of my life, and I do not see a lot of black dudes identifying with Gavin Newsom.
It’s NOT that….
A good many black males simply did NOT want to vote for a Balck woman, especaily a assertive one….
Kinda ego driven….
But was a small factor that DID count….
Depends what you mean by mainstream, but the Democrats’ base is very. very. very much aligned with AOC, just like the Republican base is with Trump.
This is the state of our two major parties.
I totally DISAGREE….
AOC IS a lefty
I repeat…..
She HAS SHOWN NO Real interest in running for President….
She is NOT READY
AOC is a lefty and her party is much much a lefty party. If she runs for President and fills the Sanders lane, she will be a very large force to be reckoned with.
However, I think it is just as likely she runs for Senate. I am pretty sure Schumer is not going to run again. I will be rooting for Ritchie Torres is he runs.
Thank You for your observation on AOC….
Why Democrats want to hold their first primary in S.C. is beyond me.
Black voters will make up nearly three quarters of the voters.That is nowhere near representative of the nation .The SC Democratic Party is moribund .Democrats haven’t won a statewide election here in 20 years .
The eventual nominee has no chance of winning the state in the election.
If they are intent on holding their first primary in the south?( a proposition that I would personally oppose) Then have it in either Georgia or North Carolina where Democrats actually win elections.
Finally, once again, Democrats are giving elderly Congressman Jim Clyburn an outsized role in the nominating process not justified by past results here.
Hmmmmm?
Biden, Hillary and Obama won there?
For what it may be worth, here are the results of Palmetto State Democratic Primary according to Wikipedia, S.C. started holding very early Democratic primaries (before the South’s Super Tuesday in March) in 2004.
Democratic results
1988 (caucus) (March 12): Jesse Jackson (55%), Al Gore (17%), Michael Dukakis (6%), Dick Gephardt (2%), and others (0%)[8]
1992 (March 7): Bill Clinton (63%), Paul Tsongas (18%), Tom Harkin (7%), Jerry Brown (6%), uncommitted (3%), and others (2%)[9]
1996: Primary cancelled
2000 (March 9): Al Gore (92%) and Bill Bradley (2%)[10]
2004 (February 3): John Edwards (45%), John Kerry (30%), Al Sharpton (10%), Wesley Clark (7%), Howard Dean (5%), and Joe Lieberman (2%)[11]
2008 (January 26): Barack Obama (55%), Hillary Clinton (27%), and John Edwards (18%)[12]
2012 (January 28): Barack Obama (unopposed)
2016 (February 27): Hillary Clinton (73%) and Bernie Sanders (26%)
2020 (February 29): Joe Biden (48%), Bernie Sanders (20%), Tom Steyer (11%), Pete Buttigieg (8%), Elizabeth Warren (7%), Amy Klobuchar (3%), and Tulsi Gabbard (1%)
2024 (February 3): Joe Biden (96%)
Thanks DSD….
My point exactly….
What exactly is your uh “ point” James and how did DSD make that “ point “ for you?
I think the points are that in the SC Dem primary, the two major African-American candidates, Jesse Jackson, and Barack Obama won, due in large part to a significant African-American voter makeup.
After that, you had Hillary beat Bernie Sanders, who was focused on other states, and would not have been considered any sort of upset, and Joe Biden, who won in 2020, because he had strong black support because he had been Obama’s VP and was endorsed by Jim Clyburn.
The point was made that no Democrat is going to win SC in November of 2028. I do not think anyone here would really disagree with that. The winner of the SC primary in 2028 though is likely to be an African-American candidate though, which will propel them nationally, regardless of if they are best equipped to win a general election or not.
I’m talking about the DEm Primary FOR the November election…NOT the actual Election
Of the nine primaries DSD highlighted…
Four of the victors went on to win be elected President
Five did not including Biden who was not reelected in 2024.
Conclusion….
If you win the S.C. primary,you have a 44.4 % chance of winning that year’s presidential election and a 55.5% chance that you won’t.
I pointed to RECENT time’s
Winning the NOMINATION which makes the numbers Cept for ONLY Edwards
If so?
I go back to ole William Jefferson?
I doubt that you can massage the numbers that way, James.
No matter how near or how far you go back, it’s still 50-50.
Going backwards:
2024-2020
Bidennever nominated ; Biden won2016-2012
H. Clintonlost general; Obama re-elected2008-2004 Obama elected;
Edwardslost nomination2000-1996
Gorelost general; Clinton won general1988-92 Clinton won general;
Jacksonnever nominatedApologies for any errors or typos.
Back to Clinton ?
SC IS the bellwether
It appears Edwards is the only anomaly ?
Counting Bill Clinton’s unopposed renomination (no S.C. primary) in 1996 and Barack Obama’s unopposed renomination in 2004, and adding Hillary Clinton’s nomination in 2016 (which James didn’t highlight in my copy of Wikipedia’s list), it looks to me like 50/50: hardly a strong argument for S.C. coming first:
1988 (caucus) (March 12):
Jesse Jackson(55%) — never nominated1992 (March 7): Bill Clinton (63%), — won nomination & general
1996: Primary cancelled (Bill Clinton unopposed) — won nomination & general
2000 (March 9):
Al Gore (92%) — won nomination & lost general2004 (February 3):
John Edwards(45%) — never nominated — for Pres.2008 (January 26): Barack Obama (55%) — won nomination & general
2012 (January 28): Barack Obama (unopposed) — won nomination & general
2016 (February 27):
Hillary Clinton(73%) — won nomination & lost general2020 (February 29): Joe Biden(48%) — won nomination & general
2024 (February 3):
Joe Biden(96%) — never nominatedjames, when Gavin Newsom is polling at about 7 percent and in fifth place in South Carolina, you will be telling people how the state does not matter.
No i won’t
History IS HISTORY
Things do NOT always work out that way
But Newsom LEADS Right now
Yup
Oh check RCP there is an outlier poll that has Harris WAY AHEAD