Do NOT sit down at the table and gamble with Donald….
You’d become a LOSER like him…
(I HAVE been saying the guy IS a LOSER for years here….)
Problem is?
He’s got America hanging on his back….
And some people do NOT CARE if he KEEPS Messing Up…
President Trump is mired in risk:
- Risk his Iran war of choice goes bad.
- Risk the February job losses are a trend, not a blip.
- Risk the stock market keeps dropping.
- Risk his tariffs, and now soaring oil costs, are pushing prices higher.
- Risk that deregulated AI accelerates job losses.
- Risk that Democratic enthusiasm leads to a midterm wipeout.
Why it matters: Trump fancies himself a high-risk, high-reward president, a confidence cheered by the vast majority of Republican officials and voters. But risk is risk — and by most measures, it’s rising everywhere.
By the numbers: Early polling on the Iran war suggests there may be little or no reward to be had, particularly with the swing voters Trump has lost over affordability concerns.
- Pollster G. Elliott Morris took an average of high-quality surveys and found just 38% of Americans support U.S. military strikes in Iran — lower than retrospective support for the war in Iraq in 2014.
- Most Republicans support the war. But no broader rally-around-the-flag effect has materialized.
Zoom in: For years, Trump, Vice President Vance and the broader MAGA movement argued that war with Iran would be catastrophic — too costly, too risky, too likely to spiral.
- Six U.S. service members have died since the opening strikes. Trump told TIME when asked whether Americans should be worried about retaliatory attacks at home: “I guess … When you go to war, some people will die.”
- The first 100 hours of the war alone are estimated to have cost $3.7 billion. Oil prices are up more than 25%, with the instability threatening Persian Gulf investments that Trump has made central to his economic vision.
- Trump told Axios he must be “involved” in selecting Iran’s next leader — but also acknowledged the worst-case scenario: “We do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person.”…
…
What to watch: Trump’s biggest political risk is losing Congress in November, and watching his second term collapse into investigations, impeachment and legislative gridlock.
- The midterm environment is trending against Republicans across every early indicator — primary turnout, generic ballot polling and special election results.
- A swift, clean victory in Iran could help stabilize Trump’s numbers. A prolonged conflict — with casualties, spiking prices and no clear endgame — could turn a difficult midterm map into a wipeout.
Go deeper: Trump’s power play….
image….Illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios
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