The view of outsider’s is that Iran does NOT believe President Trump wants to seriously get into it with Iran….
The Trump push was for regime chage initially….
THAT has NOT happened…..
Now Trump talks about nuclear capabilities, something Iran simply is NOT gonna stop it woulkd appear….
Iran IS under sanctions….
It’s government has beat down protest’s on that account…
Iran, the trouble maker of the Middle East feels that CAN and WILL defiantly stand up against a American President that has not won much of anything in Gaza and the Ukraine….
And try to simply wait him out with stalling, like Putin is doing with Trump and the Ukraine….
When it comes to Iran and Donald Trump, there is so much bluff, backed by military hardware, that the truth rarely makes an appearance.
It appears that a bullish Iran is going into negotiations with the US on Fridayadopting maximalist positions that do not seem greatly different to those it adopted in the five rounds of talks before the negotiations were abruptly halted by the surprise Israeli attack on Iran last June.
Given how much Iran has been weakened in the intervening eight months, Tehran’s refusal to change its negotiating position is at one level surprising.
After all, during its 12-day war with Israel, the vulnerabilities of Iran’s air defences, and the penetration by Israeli intelligence of Iran’s political military and scientific elite were both revealed. More than 30 Iranian military commanders were killed, and 160 strikes on Iranian military targets undertaken….
Iran’s negotiators are hugely experienced and never show a trace of weakness. Anything negotiable is negotiated. “One more thing” is their favourite phrase, according to Wendy Sherman, the chief negotiator for the US nuclear deal in 2013-15. Iran’s negotiating team was legalistic, full of stamina, well prepared and tough, Sherman recalled.
Nevertheless, it is surprising how confident Tehran seems that the Oman talks will not immediately collapse, and if they do that the government will survive.
The simplest explanation for Iran’s hardball tactics is that the regime simply does not believe Trump will carry out his threat to attack given the perils of doing so. The reprisals by Iran on Israel and US military bases could be disproportionate, and lead to fresh tensions between Washington and the Gulf states angry that the US has destabilised the region.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said: “There seems to be a consensus among the Islamic Republic security elite that President Trump doesn’t want prolonged and messy wars at high cost. So the only thing they have to do is to make sure that it’s going to be as unpredictable, as messy and as expensive in terms of human cost and economic cost as possible.”
But there is a further explanation. Iran does not believe Trump has a strategy for change inside Iran, or any interest as yet in linking up with the opposition inside and outside Iran.
It is unlikely a politician as instinctive as Trump would ever have something as elevated as theory of change in a society as complex as Iran, but the administration seems to have little idea how the political gravity on the ground might shift if the US bombs start to drop.
As recently as last week Marco Rubio was disarmingly frank that the US did not have a plan.
…
Even longtime advisers to Pahlavi worry that the call for the population to take to the streets was a mistake.
Trump, for the moment, seems to have lost interest in those in jail or seeking radical change inside Iran. That may change, however, if the Iranian negotiators overplay their hand in Oman….
….
ISW...Iran Update, February 5, 2026
- US-Iran Negotiations: There are inconsistent reports about whether US-Iran talks in Oman on February 6 will be limited to the nuclear program or also include discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxy and partner network. Iran may offer limited concessions on its nuclear program, but Iran remains unlikely to make any other concessions related to its missile capabilities and its support for its partner and proxy network in the region.
- Iran’s Nuclear Program: Iran has reportedly continued to take steps to rebuild its nuclear program as part of its nuclear reconstitution efforts to help Iran’s nuclear facilities withstand Israeli and US airstrikes. Iran probably calculates that by dispersing elements of its nuclear program and burying them deeper, it will be able to increase the military requirements to destroy nuclear facilities.
- Iranian Leadership: The Chairman of the SNSC’s Defense Council, President Masoud Pezeshkian, appointed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, as the Defense Council’s secretary on February 5. His appointment as secretary of the newly-formed Defense Council — whose mandate has not yet been publicly defined — indicates that the Defense Council will function as a central body enabling rapid and coordinated decision-making.
Note….
Remember?
Almost ASLL the seasoned American foreign affairs specialist’s and expert where thgrown out by Trump & Co. for lap dog loyalists who would NOT advise and push back against Trump’s ‘seat of pants’ and simplistic foreign affairs whims….
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