Iran IS turning out to be a tough negotiator ….
Iran’s leadership also has internal issues from different places…..
Despite the government violent crackdown?
Iran continues to have protets in the streets….
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High-stakes talks between the US and Iran over the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme ended without a deal, as Donald Trump weighs military action on a scale that would signify the US’s largest intervention since its invasion of Iraq in 2003. The world remains on edge as Trump has yet to decide on whether he will start a war with Iran.
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We haven’t heard from the US side, but Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said “good progress” was made on the nuclear issue and sanction relief, and said the two sides had begun to discuss “the elements of an agreement”. He described the talks as “one of our most intense and longest rounds of negotiations”, and confirmed that negotiations would reconvene at a technical level next week in Vienna. A reminder that on 19 February Trump issued a 10-15 day deadline for Tehran to reach a “meaningful deal” with Washington, which would bring us to next Friday, 6 March.
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But despite the hopeful take from the Iranians and from the Omani mediators, there was no immediate evidence that the dial had shifted on the fundamental issues of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and the future of its highly enriched uranium stocks. A reminder that the US is demanding permanent Iranian guarantees on uranium enrichment and inspection mechanisms so that Tehran will never be able to build a nuclear weapon, a goal it has always denied….
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ISW….Iran Update, February 26, 2026
- US-Iran Nuclear Talks: Iran is unlikely to accept reported US demands to destroy its nuclear facilities, send its highly enriched uranium to the US, and commit to a permanent deal. The United States and Iran held a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26. The Iranian proposal does not meet core US demands, and Iran is trying to offer economic incentives that are unrelated to US demands in order to extract concessions from the United States. US officials have previously stated that the US would strike Iran if the two sides cannot reach a deal.
- Iranian Missile Program: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on February 25 that Iran is “trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).” The US Defense Intelligence Agency released a public assessment in 2025 that Iran has the capability to develop an ICBM by 2035. Iran continues to undergo efforts to rebuild other aspects of its ballistic missile program.
- Iranian-backed Iraqi Militia Warnings: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened Iraqi Kurdistan’s “security and future” if the Kurdistan Regional Government supports a US or Israeli attack on Iran. Iran and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have both previously conducted attacks targeting Iraqi Kurdistan, including during the 2023-2025 Gaza War. Kataib Hezbollah is the first major Iranian-backed Iraqi militia to threaten the United States over possible US strikes on Iran. Kataib Hezbollah appears to be prioritizing its relationship with Iran and its role in the broader Axis of Resistance over domestic political and economic considerations in Iraq.
- Iranian Protest Activity: Iranians continued to hold anti-regime protests during the 40-day mourning ceremonies across the country. These 40-day ceremonies have served as catalysts for renewed demonstrations in recent weeks. CTP-ISW did not record any protests at Iranian universities on February 26, which is a sudden decline from the rate of campus protests in recent days. CTP-ISW is considering several reasons that could explain the lack of observable university protest activity.
Vice President JD Vance said that while military strikes against Iran remain under consideration by President Trump, there is “no chance” that such strikes would result in the United States becoming involved in a years-long, drawn-out war, the Washington Post reports.
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