“Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms,” Politicoreports.
“Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points.”
“That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.”
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Playbook: “One thing is certainly clear from the past month: Trump has energized the base. The Democratic base…”
“And there are more special elections to come, in Georgia and New Jersey early next year. They’re unlikely to be the last before November — how many House Republicans will quit during 2026? Plenty of Republicans believe results like last night will precipitate more early departures.”
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“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans. If every House district in the country shifted left by this same amount — about 15 points — we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018.”
— Republican strategist Matt Whitlock, writing on X, on the Tennessee special House election last night.
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Nate Cohn: “While it might seem unimaginable in the wake of a triumphant victory, the winning party in the last five presidential elections has gone on to lose each of the next five midterms — and four of the next five presidential elections.”
“If the last month — or really, the last year — of election results is any indication, today’s Republicans are following the same path. Almost every election night this year has gone poorly for them.”
“They’ve lost or badly underperformed over and over — including on Tuesday in a special congressional election in Tennessee, where with nearly all of the vote counted the Republicans led by nine percentage points in a district that voted for President Trump last year by 22 points.”
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