ISW thinks that Russia IS moving to confront NATO with air incursions and contiuned action against Ukraine….
Trump changing his tune about Russian sending warplanes into NATO countries airspace?
John Bolton says Trump ‘is trying to escape the situation’ that he see’s no end to so far….
Drone warfare continues ….
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Estonia said the UN security council would hold an emergency meeting on Monday over Russian fighter jets’ violation of the country’s airspace as Donald Trump expressed his displeasure at the incursion and said he would help defend European Union members if Russia intensified hostilities. Nato forces intercepted three Russian MiG-31 fighters on Friday after they entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland, triggering Nato and European complaints of a dangerous new provocation but a denial from Moscow. And on Sunday, two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian military aircraft above the Baltic Sea, reports Luke Harding. Germany’s air force said the Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane in international airspace had switched off its transponders and ignored requests to make contact. Estonia’s foreign ministry said the emergency security council meeting was being convened “in response to Russia’s brazen violation of Estonian airspace”. Poland said earlier this month that Russian drones had repeatedly violated its airspace in an “act of aggression” during an attack on Ukraine.
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Trump on Sunday joined the condemnation of the Estonian airspace violation, vowing to defend Poland and the Baltic states in case of escalation from Russia. Asked if he would help defend EU members if Russia intensified hostilities, the US president told reporters: “Yeah, I would. I would.” Trump said he had been briefed over the Estonia situation and added: “We don’t like it.” It was a change in tone from his reaction to the Polish airspace incursion, which he said “could have been a mistake”, prompting Poland’s foreign affairs minister to say that “that wasn’t a mistake”.
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Estonia said it was convening Monday’s emergency security council meeting for the first time in 34 years of Estonian membership of the UN. Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said the violation was “part of a broader pattern of escalation by Russia” and that “this behaviour requires an international response”. Nato’s North Atlantic council will meet on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s Estonian violation, two officials told Reuters.
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A Ukrainian drone attack on a resort area of the Crimea peninsula killed three people and injured 16, the area’s top official claimed on Sunday, in an attack denounced by Moscow. Sergei Aksyonov, the Moscow-appointed head of Crimea – which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 – gave the toll on Telegram. Ukrainian officials issued no comment and the report could not be independently verified. Aksyonov said earlier that a school in the town of Faros was also damaged and falling drone debris sparked fires on open ground near Yalta along Crimea’s southern shore. An independent website devoted to Crimean affairs, Krymsky Veter, said senior officials were likely staying in the region’s guest houses….
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ISW…Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2025
- Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025.
- The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025.
- Reports that Russia is creating a strategic reserve further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war against Ukraine but remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield and may be preparing for a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Russia continues to test the limits of NATO’s air defenses over the Baltic Sea as Russia increases the frequency of its violations of NATO states’ airspace.
- Russian forces continue to develop drone technologies to increase the volume and precision of strikes against the Ukrainian near rear to further complicate Ukrainian logistics.
- The Kremlin reportedly dismissed former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin from military service.
- Lapin has proven to be an incompetent commander throughout the war against Ukraine, but the Kremlin is likely punishing Lapin now as part of its ongoing campaign to scapegoat and punish high ranking officials for their failure to repel Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
Daily Kos grunt Report for Today….