Ukraine Update Day 1,226*….US to Ukraine Arms Shipments Lag?

The Russia’s see this announcemnet as signal their efforts are making progress in the war….

Ukraine will probably look more to Europe for refills….

Europe will also ne worried about their supplies with Russian looking over thew Ukraine fence at them….

• A decision by Washington to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine prompted warnings by Kyiv on Wednesday that the move would weaken its ability to defend against intensifying airstrikes and battlefield advances. Ukraine said it had called in the acting US envoy to Kyiv to underline the importance of military aid from Washington continuing, and cautioned that any cut-off would embolden Russia in its war in Ukraine. The Pentagon’s decision – tied to concerns that US military stockpiles are too low – began in recent days and includes 30 Patriot air defence missiles, which Ukraine relies on to destroy fast-moving ballistic missiles, four people familiar with the decision told Reuters on Wednesday. It also includes nearly 8,500 155mm artillery shells, more than 250 precision GMLRS (mobile rocket artillery) missiles and 142 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, they said. “The Ukrainian side emphasised that any delay or procrastination in supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities will only encourage the aggressor to continue the war and terror, rather than seek peace,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry said. The defence ministry said it had not been officially notified of any halt in US shipments and was seeking clarity from its American counterparts. A Ukrainian source familiar with the situation said the decision was a “total shock.”

• US officials downplayed the White House announcement, saying President Donald Trump still had “robust” options for military assistance to Kyiv. “The department of defence continues to provide the president with robust options regarding military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell told journalists. “The department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach towards achieving this objective while also preserving US military readiness and defence priorities,” he said. State department spokesperson Tammy Bruce meanwhile told reporters that “this is not a cessation of us assisting Ukraine or of providing weapons. This is one event, and one situation, and we’ll discuss what else comes up in the future.”

• An arson attack on a restaurant and supermarket in Estonia last year were ordered by Russian intelligence, an Estonian court said Wednesday. The attack was one in a series across Europe tracked by The Associated Press and linked to Russia by western officials. The goal, they asserted, was to sow division in western societies and undermine support for Ukraine. The Harju county court in Estonia said the perpetrators were two Moldovan men who are cousins, both named Ivan Chihaial.

• Russia has made incursions near two towns key to army supply routes in eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian military official said on Wednesday, as Moscow seeks a breakthrough in its summer offensive. In recent weeks, Russia has amassed forces and despite heavy losses has advanced in rural areas either side of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, which both sit on crossroads running to the frontline from larger cities in Ukrainian-controlled territory.

• Four companies of the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) will receive 2.4bn złotys ($665m) in financing from the state assets ministry for a project to build three ammunition factories, the ministry said on Wednesday. Poland is leading a European push to boost its defence readiness to deter any possible attack from Russia and to be less dependent for security on the United States.

• Russia is using the online media outlet Red to sow discontent in German society as part of a disinformation campaign waged alongside its war in Ukraine, the foreign ministry in Berlin said on Wednesday. “Red presents itself as a revolutionary platform for independent journalists. However, it has close links with the Russian state media outlet RT,” a spokesperson for the foreign ministry told reporters in Berlin. “Today we can confirm that Red is being used by Russia specifically to manipulate information,” the spokesperson added. Red is run by Turkish media company AFA Medya, which together with its founder Huseyin Dogru is already the subject of EU sanctions targeting Russia and is accused of “undermining the democratic political process” in Germany. After they were sanctioned, Red announced on 16 May that it was closing down. Dogro has denied any links with the Kremlin or that the site is funded by Russia, according to media reports….

More...7/2/2025

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• Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian city of Izhevsk on Tuesday, killing three people and wounding dozens, in one of the deepest strikes inside Russia of the three-year conflict, authorities said. Izhevsk, more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from the frontline, has arms production facilities including factories that make attack drones and the world-famous Kalashnikov rifle. A Ukraine security services source said Kyiv had targeted an Izhevsk-based drone manufacturer and that the attack had disrupted Moscow’s “offensive potential”. Unverified videos posted on social media showed at least one drone buzzing over the city, while another showed a ball of flames erupt from the roof of a building, according to Reuters. The region’s head said the drones hit an industrial “enterprise”, without giving details. Both sides have raced to improve drone technology and enhance their use on the battlefield, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying on Monday that drone development was a “priority”.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin had a “substantial” phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on the Iran-Israel conflict and Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, the first such exchange between the two leaders since September 2022. In Paris, Macron’s office said the call lasted two hours and that the French leader had called for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the start of negotiations on ending the conflict. A Kremlin statement said Putin “reminded [Macron] that the Ukrainian conflict is a direct consequence of the policy of western states”. A French diplomatic source said Macron had talked to Zelenskyy before and after his call with Putin to brief him on the talks. Macron also talked to US President Donald Trump about the exchange.

• The US is halting some shipments of weapons to Ukraine amid concerns that its own stockpiles have declined too much, officials said Tuesday. Certain munitions were previously promised to Ukraine under the Biden administration to aid its defences. The pause reflects a new set of priorities under President Donald Trump and came after defence department officials scrutinised current US stockpiles and raised concerns. “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.”

• Germany has pledged additional measures to further counter Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” operating in the Baltic and North Sea, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday in a statement. Western sanctions aimed at cutting Russia’s oil revenues following its invasion of Ukraine have led to the rise of a vast “shadow fleet” of tankers that helps Moscow to keep its crude exports flowing. From Tuesday, German authorities have begun questioning passing tankers about their insurance coverage against oil pollution damage, the foreign ministry said, adding that the insurance coverage of “shadow fleet” vessels is often unknown, as they avoid reputable insurers and European ports.

• The UN’s nuclear watchdog IAEA said on Tuesday it has been informed of a drone attack last week near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that damaged several vehicles near the site’s cooling pond. The International Atomic Energy Agency said six drones had been involved in the incident and no injuries were reported.

• Ukraine’s top general ordered military officials on Tuesday to prohibit troop buildups in tent encampments and to build new shelters at training centres to protect soldiers against deadly Russian airstrikes. The order by Oleksandr Syrskyi comes after a spate of Russian attacks focused attention on lax discipline at military bases as Ukraine struggles to fend off a bigger and better-armed Russian military.

• Russian former deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov was found guilty of corruption and condemned to 13 years in a penal colony on Tuesday, the harshest sentence yet in a series of graft cases against defence officials. Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on suspicion of taking bribes, and investigators added new embezzlement charges in October. More than a dozen people, including two other former deputy ministers, have been arrested in investigations into separate cases….

More...7/1/2025

ISW….Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2025

• The United States paused weapons supplies to Ukraine, including critical air defense interceptors, artillery shells, missiles, and rockets.
• The decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine will likely force Ukrainian forces to continue to husband materiel, although the exact timing of the planned deliveries that the United States paused remains unclear at this time.
• The suspension of US aid to Ukraine will likely accelerate Russian gains on the battlefield, as previous US aid suspensions have in the past.
• The suspension of US aid to Ukraine will reinforce Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory that posits that Russia can win the war of attrition by making slow, creeping advances and outlasting Western support for Ukraine.
• Kremlin officials are responding to the US military aid suspension by publicly flouting Putin’s theory of military victory as successful — in direct opposition to US President Donald Trump’s stated goal of bringing Russia to the negotiating table and achieving a lasting and just peace.
• The Kremlin is also using the US aid suspension as a basis to continue rhetorical attacks against European defensive efforts that are in line with Trump’s initiative for Europe to shoulder more of the burden for collective defense.
• The US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine will particularly degrade Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russia’s enhanced long-range missile and drone strike capabilities that have inflicted significant civilian casualties — in sharp contrast to President Trump’s stated objective of stopping civilian casualties in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Toretsk and Novopavlivka….

Dialy Kos grunt report for Today…

*I have adopted the Guardian count going forward……