A NY Times look at California Democratic Governor Newsom’s recent drop into South Carolina in July 2025…..
The California governor may not be ready to reveal his thinking about 2028. But he has cemented his standing in the top tier of potential Democratic contenders, thanks in part to last month’s dramatic clashes with President Donald Trump over federal immigration raids in his state and the president’s deployment of the U.S. military amid the ensuing protests in Los Angeles. Interviews with more than two dozen Democratic and independent voters who came to see Newsom here showed many want a brawler, and appreciate his willingness to confront what they see as Trump’s brash tactics and authoritarian leanings.
“He’s up for the fight,” said Joanne Peterson, a 78-year-old retired health care administrator from Wallace, South Carolina. “And I’m up for the fight with him.”
But Newsom’s rural tour also illustrated the obstacles he will face if he decides to run after his final term as governor ends next year. Some Democrats said they worried that he would be an easy mark for his GOP opponents who would cast him as a California liberal who struggled to fix the state’s homelessness and housing affordability crises. They fretted that his combativeness and defense of abortion and LGBTQ rights make him a lightning rod on the right.
…
Johnnie McLendon, the senior pastor at Fisher Hill Community Baptist Church in Chesterfield County, said the governor had emerged as someone who “has been through the storm, the trials and everything — and he’s still standing strong.”
“He’s bringing hope, he’s bringing encouragement, he’s bringing stability,” said McLendon, who told Newsom that he would help organize voters in the surrounding rural counties if he runs. “That’s what we want: stability, because that’s what this country has always had.”…
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“You can’t afford to live in California,” said Tim Scott, a 78-year-old Republican and Air Force veteran who came to listen to Newsom in Mullins. “We don’t want the rest of this country to be like California. Nobody does.”…
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Newsom began his red-state travels in 2023 when he launched his Campaign for Democracy political action committee with the aim of fighting what he characterized as rising authoritarianism and bolstering struggling state and local parties in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi and other deep-red states.
Before he had even touched down in South Carolina this week, he raised about $160,000 for the South Carolina Democratic Party through a text and email solicitation, according to his aides and officials with the party.
Across 10 stops, Newsom gave different variations of a stump speech, warning against giving in to cynicism, anxiety and fear. The president “has declared a war within” America, he said, “on our people and our values.”…
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“You’re running for president, right?” one man asked him as he thanked him for his “courage” and shook his hand at Fisher Hill Baptist Church.
“Who the hell knows,” Newsom answered, laughing…..
image…California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) speaks at St. Paul First Baptist Church in Laurens, South Carolina, on Wednesday….Meg Kinnard/AP
If Jim Clyburn is still alive in 2028,whoever he endorses will win the S.C. Primary.
Kinda figured that.,,,,.
Newsom ain’t no fool
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is scheduled to visit S.C. soon.
They will probably ALL make the stop,…,,
Newsom is back to my front runner for 2028
It’s way too early but anybody on a Newsom VP Choice?
Josh?
Pete?
I do not think Newsom would get too far in the process, but who knows?
Today’s Democrats are unlikely to nominate a white male, especially one who identifies as Christian and straight, and especially one who is “wealthy.”
I do not think there is a chance in hell that a male Democrat Presidential nominee would pick another male to run with them as VP.
It’s incredibly early of course.
I think the strongest potential nominees for Democrats would be Beshear or Shapiro or possibly Kamala Harris.
Who do I have a hunch is the most likely person to be nominated? Wes Moore.
Harris needs to be the California Gov
I disagree …….
The Dem nominee WILL BE a white male….
Newsom , like Trump was a entertainer
THAT IS A HUGE benefit in our social media age….
Look at Mamdani
He’d never even place in SC
Why the Democratic Party insists on holding their early primary in S.C. is beyond me .
It’s a totally unrepresentative southern state which hasn’t elected a Democratic candidate statewide in 20 years , which has elected one Democratic Governor in the past 43 years,and last elected a Democratic Senator almost 30 years ago.
If the party believes they need an early southern primary ( I don’t) then choose North Carolina which has a Democratic Governor and where Democrats are competitive in statewide races or Georgia which has 2 Democratic Senators.
Instead they come here where ,as I stated earlier ,all campaigning is essentially meaningless .The candidates merely need to drop by Jim Clyburns house and spend a few hours talking with him rather than wasting their time running here and there in a state where the only question is , “who’ s Jim for.”
What is the Palmetto state’s white proportion of the Democratic vote, as compared to those of other Southern or Border states?
According to AI…
The S.C. Democratic Party says 60% of their voters are Black which would place the White Democratic vote at around 40%.
Having said that?
I wonder exactly how the SCDP came up with that figure as S.C. has no registration by party.Accordingly this seems to simply be a guess .Anyone can play that game ,So,in my view, the White proportion of the Democratic vote which you inquired about is more like 30-35%.
Traditions ARE hard to break
South Carolina is NO different
Think of the economic impact along INFLUENCE
Remember the fight Iowa put up?!
Could FEMA cuts add to the Trump political weight?
Federal Judges gonna keep adding to the load….
Gee I didn’t know all that!
Wow!
I take back everything I said!
No u won’t
For whatever AI is worth, I asked MS Copilot this question. (The main source of Copilot’s answer seems to be the reliable Pew Research Center:
How does the white proportion of the Democratic vote in South Carolina compare to the white proportion of the Democratic vote in other Southern states?
Comparison of White Voters’ Share of the Democratic Coalition
Below is a comparison of the percentage of white voters within the Democratic vote (i.e., the share of Democratic‐leaning/identifying voters who are white) in South Carolina versus several other Southern states, based on the 2024 Pew Research Center survey of registered voters and aggregated state‐level analyses.
White Share of Democratic Coalition in South Carolina
In South Carolina, 41% of non‐Hispanic white registered voters identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.
Whites make up approximately 56% of all Democratic‐leaning voters in the state; Black voters (who constitute about 27% of the electorate) comprise roughly 40% of the Democratic coalition, with the remainder from other groups (Hispanic, Asian, etc.).
Comparison with Other Southern States
State % White in Democratic Coalition % Black in Democratic Coalition Notes
Georgia ~32% ~52% White share of Dems down from 40% in 2020; Black share remains high at 45%
North Carolina ~36% ~45% White Dem share grew modestly; Black share declined from ~50% in 2020
Florida ~48% ~28% White share of Dem coalition higher due to large non‐Black Hispanic bloc
Virginia ~39% ~40% Rough parity between white and Black shares in Democratic coalition
Alabama ~30% ~60% One of smallest white shares among Southern Democratic coalitions
Mississippi ~25% ~65% Lowest white share, reflecting state’s Black majority among Dem voters
Key Takeaways
South Carolina’s Democratic coalition is whiter (≈56%) than in Deep South states like Alabama (30%) and Mississippi (25%), but less white than in Florida (48%) or South Carolina’s neighbor North Carolina (36%).
The white share of Democratic‐leaning voters nationwide is 41%, making South Carolina slightly above the national average for white participation in the Democratic Party.
Historic Black strongholds (e.g., Mississippi, Alabama) continue to see Black voters form the clear majority of the Democratic coalition, whereas more demographically mixed states (Florida, Virginia) have a larger white component.
What This Means
A larger white proportion in the Democratic coalition can signal shifting partisanship among non‐Black whites and greater outreach or appeal to moderate/conservative voters.
States with higher Black shares among Democrats reflect more traditional patterns of African American loyalty to the party, but may struggle to expand the coalition without gains among white voters.
Let’s look back at who the previous favorites were 3 years out in previous cycles.
2021 GOP–RomnDeSantis
2017 Dems–Elizabeth Warren
2013 GOP Rand Paul
2009 GOP Rick Perry
2005 Dems–Hillary Climtom.
Sorry for the typos.
No problem
Why ya gotta spoil things Scott?
Not to quibble but nobody was really talking about Rick Perry in 2009. The talk was about Romney, Palin, and Huckabee.
At this point in 2009, Perry was considered to be in a very competitive primary for Governor in 2010 against Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Also, I think at this point in 2013, the talk would have been more about Chris Christie,Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker than Rand Paul.
In 2017 for the Democrats, I think Kamala Harris would have maybe been ahead of Elizabeth Warren in national polls.
Not a hit parade of names , eh?
@CG
I think that the 2003 candidate you’re thinking of is Cong. Dr Ron Paul of Texas, a rather more classical libertarian, than his son, Sen. Dr Rand Paul of Kentucky.
Ron Paul’s supporters may not have dominated the GOP, but they sure were enthusiastic and active, as I found out editing Wikipedia’s article on the 2012 Maine GOP caucuses. The establishment GOP machine had managed their way into certifying a Romney plurality among state caucuses, but once at the state convention, Ron Paul’s supporters were able to select all 20 of Maine’s delegates to the 2012 RNC.
Ron ran 2008 and 2012
Rand ran in 2016
Their supporters were the beginning of the end of the GOP as we once knew it.
I’m not a fan of the Pauls but I think Rush Limbaugh laid the seeds for the Trumpification of the GOP more than those two did.
It’s just that by the time Republicans were ready for someone like Limbaugh to be the face of the party El Rushbo himself was nearly dead. So it was Trump.