….’ISW has consistently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not compromise in peace negotiations unless Ukraine and the West inflict significant battlefield and economic losses on Russia and force Putin to rethink his theory of victory.’….
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Ukraine rallied support from its western allies on Friday after Kyiv and Moscow failed to agree to a ceasefire at their first direct talks in more than three years, with Russia presenting conditions that a Ukrainian source described as “non-starters”. Under pressure from US president Donald Trump, the talks between delegates took place in an Istanbul palace and lasted under two hours. Both countries said they agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet. But Kyiv, which wants the west to impose tighter sanctions unless Moscow accepts a Trump proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, immediately began rallying its allies for tougher action. Russia expressed satisfaction with the meeting and said it was ready to continue contacts.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone call with Trump and the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland right after the talks, the Ukrainian president’s spokesperson said, without elaborating. Russia’s demands were “detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed”, a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters. Moscow had issued ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory in order to obtain a ceasefire “and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions”, the source said.
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The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said the Russian position was “clearly unacceptable” and that European leaders, Ukraine and the US were “closely aligning” their responses. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU was working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow. Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s top priority was “a full, unconditional and honest ceasefire … to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy”. The Istanbul meeting appeared to achieve little towards ending the conflict, reports Pjotr Sauer, but represents a symbolic win for Putin, who refused to accept the 30-day ceasefire Ukraine and its European allies demanded as a prerequisite for talks.
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Russia said on Friday it captured another village in its slow advance in eastern Ukraine. Minutes before the start of the Istanbul meeting, Ukrainian media reported an air alert and explosions in the city of Dnipro.
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A colonel general dubbed “General Breakthrough” for his work in key battles of the war has been appointed head of Russia’s land forces, the state newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta said on Friday. The daily said Andrei Mordvichev was decorated last year as a Hero of Russia, the country’s highest award, and had commanded operations that led to the 2022 surrender of Ukrainian units holding out in the Azovstal steelworks during the siege of Mariupol. Mordvichev takes over from army general Oleg Salyukov, replaced as head of ground forces in a decree Putin signed on Thursday.
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The former US ambassador to Ukraine has said she quit the post because she disagreed with Donald Trump’s foreign policy. Bridget Brink outlined the reasons for her April resignation for the first time in an op-ed on Friday in the Detroit Free Press, hitting out at Trump for pressuring Ukraine rather than Russia. “I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine US foreign policy – with proper checks and balances by US Congress,” she wrote. “Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.” The long-serving career diplomat also said: “Peace at any price is not peace at all – it is appeasement.”
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An Australian man captured by Russian forces while fighting for Ukraine has been jailed for 13 years on the charge of being a “mercenary”. Oscar Jenkins, a 33-year-old man from Melbourne, was convicted of being a “mercenary in an armed conflict” and sentenced on Friday to 13 years “in a strict regime penal colony” by a Russian-controlled court in Ukraine’s east Luhansk region. The Australian government had repeatedly called on Russia to release Jenkins, a former biology teacher….
- Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Medinsky highlighted that Russia is prepared to continue its war in Ukraine for years to come.
- The Kremlin has repeatedly publicly demanded that Ukraine cede all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts – even the territory that Russian forces currently do not occupy – but had not formally demanded that Ukraine cede all of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts before the May 16 Istanbul meeting.
- ISW has consistently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not compromise in peace negotiations unless Ukraine and the West inflict significant battlefield and economic losses on Russia and force Putin to rethink his theory of victory.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly approved a series of command changes in the Russian military, including a new Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces.
- Russian forces are continuing to expand their salient northeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Toretsk, although it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will prioritize further advances towards Kostyantynivka or Pokrovsk during Summer 2025.
- Russia is unlikely to have sufficient manpower, materiel, and operational planning capabilities to conduct both an envelopment of Pokrovsk and a significant offensive operation toward Kostyantynivka in the coming months.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka and in the Zaporizhia direction.
Daily Kos grunt report for today….
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