In the Daily Kos linked piece are the Russian cease-fire points….
While the Ukraine IS likely to NOT get back Crimea or land it lost….
A failure to get Europe, NATO and possibly US “boot’s on the ground’ who appear to be a deal breaker for the Ukraine and WOULD have Putin marchin g against the Ukraine before the ink dried on and piece of paper….
The Ukraine/Russian Reality….
A peace proposal by the Trump administration that includes recognizing Russian authority over Crimea shocked Ukrainian officials, who say they will not acceptany formal surrender of the peninsula, even though they expect to concede the territory to the Kremlin, at least temporarily.
Giving up the land that was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 is also politically and legally impossible, according to experts. It would require a change to the Ukrainian constitution and a nationwide vote, and it could be considered treason. Lawmakers and the public are firmly opposed to the idea.
“It doesn’t mean anything,” said Oleksandr Merezkho, a lawmaker with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s party. “We will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia.”
Unlike a territorial concession, a formal surrender would permanently relinquish Crimea and abandon the hope that Ukraine could regain it in the future….
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But much of the public messaging about land concessions has suggested that they are not necessarily permanent, as when Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko told the BBC recently that Ukraine may need to temporarily give up land as part of a peace deal.
Saying otherwise would effectively admit defeat — a deeply unpopular move, especially for Ukrainians living under Russian occupation who hope to be liberated and reunited with their families one day. It also would call into question the sacrifices made by tens of thousands of Ukrainian service members who have been killed or wounded….
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Elements of Trump’s peace proposal would see the U.S. formally recognizing Crimea as Russian and de facto accepting Moscow’s rule over occupied Ukrainian territories, according to a senior European official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.
Whether the U.S. formally recognizes Crimea as Russian is out of Zelenskyy’s hands. But many obstacles prevent the Ukrainian president from doing so, even under immense pressure. He cannot unilaterally sign any such proposal, and he could be reprimanded by future governments for even attempting it, experts said.
Ukraine began to accept that it would not regain its lost territories after the failure of the country’s 2023 summer counteroffensive. From then on, the Ukrainian military concentrated on defending the territory it still held.
In return for territorial concessions, Ukraine wants robust security guarantees that ideally would include NATO membership or concrete plans to arm and train its forces against any future Russian invasion with the pledged support of allies. One scenario envisions European boots on the ground, which Russia rejects….
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for an immediate month-long ceasefire after Vladimir Putin unilaterally announced a three-day truce for next month during a second world war anniversary. The Ukrainian president said: “Now there’s a new attempt at manipulation. For some reason, everyone is supposed to wait for May 8 and only then have a ceasefire to ensure calm for Putin during the parade.” He added: “We value people’s lives and not parades. We believe that the world believes that there is no reason to wait for May 8. And the ceasefire should be not for a few days only to resume the killing afterward.” Ukrainian officials also pointed out that Russia announced a similar truce over the Easter period only to violate it. The Russian president suggested the ceasefire in May to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union in the second world war, and said Kyiv should follow Moscow’s example. If respected by both sides, it would mark the first full ceasefire since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
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A series of blasts were heard in Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday after Ukraine’s air force issued air raid alerts for the capital, a Reuters witness reported. Ukraine’s military said air defence systems were trying to repel an air attack.
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Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has promised to put staunch support of Ukraine at the heart of his government after announcing that a pro-Kyiv foreign policy expert and former soldier will be the new foreign minister. Merz said that Johann Wadephul, a conservative MP who has long advised Merz on foreign policy, would become the new foreign minister. Wadephul has been a supporter of military backing for Ukraine and recently told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper the war in Ukraine “is not about a few square kilometres in Ukraine but rather the fundamental question of whether we will allow a classic war of conquest in Europe”. Merz himself said Vladimir Putin’s invasion was nothing less than a battle “against the entire political order of the European continent”. Boris Pistorius, a social democrat who is widely expected to continue in the role as defence minister, said Donald Trump’s peace deal proposals were “akin to a capitulation”.
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US secretary of state Marco Rubio told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov the US is committed to working to end “this senseless war”, the state department said. “The United States is serious about facilitating an end to this senseless war,” state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a readout of Sunday’s call, which was already announced by Russia. She said Rubio spoke to Lavrov about “the next steps in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the need to end the war now”. The call took place before Putin on Monday offered a three-day truce.
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The Guardian’s Luke Harding has been reporting from frontline battles near Ukraine’s Oskil River. “Before the war, it was a place for recreation. Visitors would grill kebabs on its sandy beaches or go kayaking past a ridge of low chalk hills and a small national park. Now it is a zone of war, waged by drones, artillery and bombs. The Russians are trying to expand a slender bridgehead on the river’s right bank, near Dvorichna,” he writes. Read the full story here.
ISW….Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2025
- Russian President Vladimir Putin announced another unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine – this time in honor of a major Soviet and Russian military holiday, while continuing to reject the March 2025 US-Ukrainian 30-day general ceasefire proposal. Putin continues to refuse any ceasefire other than on terms that advantage his war effort.
- Putin is leveraging unilateral ceasefires to achieve informational and battlefield advantages in Ukraine, counter to US President Donald Trump’s goal of using a general ceasefire as a stepping stone towards an enduring and sustainable peace agreement in Ukraine.
- Ukraine – in contrast to Russia – continues to demonstrate its support for Trump’s desired full, permanent ceasefire.
- The Kremlin continues attempts to hold legitimate ceasefire negotiations hostage in order to secure additional concessions from Ukraine and the United States.
- Lavrov reiterated on April 28 Russia’s longstanding demands for Ukraine’s surrender and concessions from the West, as Russia continues to offer no concessions of its own.
- Russian and North Korean officials touted the success of their joint military operations in Kursk Oblast in order to highlight the international community’s inability to deter Russian efforts to involve its allies directly in Russia’s war against Ukraine, as the Kremlin pledged to offer North Korea reciprocal active military support.
- Russia is reportedly expanding its military infrastructure along its border with Finland and stockpiling new tanks, likely in preparation for future aggression against NATO.
- Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová announced on April 27 that the Czech Ammunition Initiative will have delivered another 400,000 rounds of large-caliber artillery ammunition to Ukraine by April 30.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka
Daily Kos grunt report for Today….
Ukraine produces 95% of it’s combat drones….
The US is working to supply Ukraine with more Patriot anti-missile units…
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