Ukraine Update Day 1,016…Zelensky…Russia getting ready for a Spring Offense…

• Emmanuel Macron has warned that Russia still shows a “desire for war”despite efforts towards a ceasefire as European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in Paris on Thursday to discuss how Europe might offer Kyiv security guarantees in the event of a lasting truce. Macron said Russia had tried to impose “new conditions” and not responded to a 30-day general ceasefire offered by Ukraine “without preconditions”. He praised Kyiv for having “taken the risk of peace”.

• Thursday’s gathering brings together leaders from the so-called “coalition of the willing” – a British-French-led group of countries considering deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine should a ceasefire be reached. Macron on Wednesday announced a new French €2bn ($2.15bn) military aid package for Ukraine, with Paris ready to rapidly ship existing hardware from its stocks.

• There remained no clearly defined or mutually agreed ceasefire covering any aspect of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia said that only in return for the lifting of a raft of sanctions and access to the Swift international banking system would it implement a ceasefire covering Black Sea shipping. The US said it would consider the sanctions request, while the EU suggested it would only lift sanctions in response to “the unconditional withdrawal of all Russian military forces” from Ukraine. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said examining Russia’s asks and reaching a deal “won’t be simple, it’ll take some time, but at least we’re on that road and we’re talking about these things”.

• Russia claimed to be observing a month-long moratorium declared by Vladimir Putin on strikes against Ukrainian energy targets; however, Russian drone and missile strikes have continued to cause blackouts and, according to Ukraine, energy sites have been hit. Despite there being no actual ceasefire, Russia has accused Ukraine of committing breaches, including by targeting gas storage in Crimea – actually Ukrainian territory – which Ukraine denied; while Zelenskyy says Russia has proven by its continued attacks on Ukraine that it does not truly want peace.

• Four people were reported killed and six injured across Ukraine overnight into Wednesday, writes Pjotr Sauer, while the Ukrainian air force said it shot down 56 of 117 incoming drones and another 48 were decoys that caused no damage.

• Late on Wednesday, Russian forces launched a mass drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, injuring nine people, causing considerable damage and starting four fires in the city centre, officials said. The Kharkiv mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said there had been at least 12 drone strikes. A drone attack also triggered fires in the central city of Dnipro, said the regional governor, Serhiy Lysak.

• North Korea has sent 3,000 more troops to Russia so far this year and continues to supply missiles, artillery and ammunition, according to South Korea’s military joint chiefs of staff. Of the initial 11,000 soldiers sent in 2024, 4,000 were believed to have been killed or wounded.

• The US-Ukraine critical minerals deal was mentioned again as the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told Fox News that “a completed document for the economic partnership is currently being reviewed by Ukrainians, and we hope to go to full discussions and perhaps even get signatures next week”. A week ago, the White House said it had “moved beyond” that deal to focus on peace efforts – only for Trump, the US president, to reverse that a day later by saying it would be signed “very shortly”.

• Relations between Kyiv and Washington were “back on track”, said Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukraine’s president. He told Reuters that after the fraught Oval Office encounter last month, two rounds of talks in Saudi Arabia on a potential ceasefire had given Kyiv an opportunity to show it could work with US officials on ending the war.

• Russia convicted 23 captured Ukrainians on terrorism charges in a military trial that Kyiv denounced as a sham and a violation of international law. The defendants included 14 current or former fighters of the Azov brigade, and nine women and one man who worked as cooks or support personnel, according to Russian media reports and human rights defenders. They were given sentences ranging from 13 to 23 years in prison. Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, called the verdicts “illegal”, adding: “Ukrainian prisoners of war are combatants, not criminals! They were fulfilling their duty to the state, protecting its territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

• Last year brought Ukraine’s worst wildfires in more than three decades as shelling along front lines triggered an unprecedented number of blazes, scientists said. Forest fires in Ukraine in 2024 burnt more than twice the area destroyed by fire in the entire 27-country European Union in 2024, said an EU report…..

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Sen. McConnell on the fledging Trump admin efforts in the Ukraine/Russsian War….

Sen. Mitch McConnell warned Thursday that advisers to President Donald Trump are pursuing an “illusory peace” with Russia that “shreds America’s credibility, leaves Ukraine under threat, weakens our alliances and emboldens our enemies.”

They are among the most pointed words from any elected Republican since Trump ordered U.S. officials to begin direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government about bringing the Ukraine war to a close. And it is some of the most direct criticism McConnell has levied against the administration since giving up his top GOP leadership role and pledging to speak out against the isolationist wing of his party….

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NY Times on the REALITY of Ukraine combat….

Hunted by drones, stalked by snipers and surrounded by minefields, soldiers fighting in Ukraine can’t risk even a small lapse in concentration.

That is why Col. Dmytro Palisa, commander of Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, instructs his soldiers to ignore speculation about a possible cease-fire.

“They start relaxing, they start overthinking, putting on rose-colored glasses, thinking that tomorrow will be easier. No,” he said in an interview at a command post on the eastern front. “We shoot until we are given the order to stop.”

As diplomats and European leaders thousands of miles away talk about a possible truce and how to safeguard it, Russia and Ukraine are engaged in bloody battles as intense as any of the war. The furious fighting, tearing across the Ukrainian front, is, in part, a late play for land and leverage in the talks, which the Trump administration says are making progress.

But it is also evidence of deep skepticism about the negotiations: Even if incremental steps such as a pause in violence on the Black Sea manage to take hold — few Ukrainian soldiers or civilians believe it would lead to a lasting peace. Both sides are still battling to establish better positions for future fighting….

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Kyiv wants to deny Moscow that advantage.

Ukrainian forces remain outnumbered and outgunned — much as they have been since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than three years ago. But they have largely halted Russian advances so far this year and are now engaged in localized counterattacks to claw back land.

Military analysts tracking battlefield developments confirm that the already glacial pace of Russian advances has largely stalled, even though Moscow’s forces continue to launch assaults along key parts of the front.

In interviews from the front line, Ukrainian soldiers and military leaders credited several factors for their resilience: New defensive strategies that more completely integrate drones, rapid adaptation to shifting threats, signs of Russian fatigue and improving morale under a new commander of ground forces, Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi….

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Much of the most ferocious fighting continues to be concentrated in the rolling hills and ruined industrial cities of the eastern Donbas region, where after three years Russia has failed to seize control of two coveted targets: the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Colonel Palisa oversees a stretch of Ukrainian defenses south of Pokrovsk, a city in Donetsk, where Russian offensive operations made the bulk of their progress last year.

But Colonel Palisa said that aggressive drone warfare and smart defensive tactics had, for now, blunted Russia’s advantages. “The enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in this sector for the past three to four weeks,” he noted. “As of now, we can say that …

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The low-tech adaptations, along with a broad restructuring of the military, are strategies that Kyiv hopes will allow Ukraine to continue fighting — even as its primary military ally, the United States, pulls back support, increasingly repeats the Kremlin’s narrative and pressures Ukraine into cease-fire negotiations…

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Soldiers say they believe that the fighting will continue until the price of war becomes too high for the Kremlin to bear and Ukraine is made strong enough to deter any future aggression.

“We are fighting for the right to live,” Captain Fedorenko said. “Americans must understand that this is not about pressuring Ukraine into some abstract peace. Such a peace is not possible — because Ukraine did not start this war.”…

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ISW….Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2025

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on March 26 that discussions are ongoing about the details of the temporary ceasefire agreements on energy infrastructure strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea.
• Russia continues to strike Ukrainian critical and civilian infrastructure under the cover of the ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes — which is not in line with US President Donald Trump’s goal of using the temporary ceasefire to facilitate a lasting peace in Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the March 19 to 20 Ukrainian drone strike against Russia’s Engels Airbase destroyed a large number of cruise missiles and strategic fuel reserves as Ukrainian officials reported that Russia is prioritizing the production of high-precision missiles.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is preparing for a spring offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.
• Ukraine’s European allies met in Paris for a Coalition of the Willing summit on March 27 to discuss their ongoing support for Ukraine, a monitoring system to ensure ceasefire compliance, and the possible deployment of a “deterrent force” in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts; near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk; and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF), which promotes patriotic and military education and has been involved in Russian volunteer recruitment efforts, elected Denis Dobraykov as the new DOSAAF Chairperson on March 27….

Update…

U.S. initiative that documented alleged Russian war crimes IS back on…

Daily Kos grunt report for Today…

image…Firing toward Russian targets on Saturday. As diplomats thousands of miles away talk about a possible truce, Russia and Ukraine are engaged in bloody battles as intense as any of the war….NY Times