Wall Street craves predictability, but Trump’s early priorities — including off-and-on tariffs, government cutbacks and immigration crackdowns — signal that this time around, the president has a much stronger appetite for disruption. He has refused to rule out a possible recession even after markets convulsed following a series of major tariff announcements.
“Investors are tuning into the fact that — at a minimum — Trump 2.0 is going to be quite a bit different from Trump 1.0.,” Coronado told me. “He’s not as sensitive to the stock market as we thought.”
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“Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.”
“The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
Bloomberg: U.S. business put spending plans on ice with tariffs.
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“President Donald Trump is set to gamble the success of his second term, the economy and the personal finances of millions of Americans this week on his long-held belief that tariffs can re-create a golden age of US wealth and independence,” CNN reports.
“His most robust move yet to transform the global trading system could end up affecting every American, raising prices at a time when family budgets are already stretched. But the president is implicitly asking everyone to buy into a strategy that promises tantalizing future benefits but requires sacrifice for years to come.”
Washington Post: Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs.
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Paul Krugman: “One odd feature of U.S. politics is that businesspeople, especially small business owners, always seems to believe that they will do better under Republicans, even though history shows that business does better under Democrats. Small business owners supported Trump in the last election, despite ample evidence that he would be very bad for business.”
“And now they’re getting a rude awakening.”
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“Ahead of President Trump’s plan to impose sweeping tariffs across the globe this week, his administration is weighing a new round of emergency aid to farmers, who are likely to be caught in the middle if America’s trading partners retaliate,” the New York Times reports.
“The early discussions offer a tacit acknowledgment that Mr. Trump’s expansive tariffs could unleash financial devastation throughout the U.S. agricultural industry, a crucial voting base that the president similarly tried to safeguard during his 2018 trade war with China.”
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