The region’s heavyweights, led by Egypt, are racing to finalize a proposal ahead of an emergency summit of Arab League states in Cairo on Tuesday. The sense of urgency was heightened Sunday when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he was halting all aid to Gaza, accusing Hamas of rejecting a U.S.-backed offer to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, which took effect Jan. 19. Israel, however, has delayed negotiations over the deal’s second phase.
The Egypt-led plan, which will be presented to all 22 member states, calls for an Arab-led reconstruction effort that would develop over stages and allow Palestinians to stay in temporary housing while their neighborhoods are rebuilt, according to Egyptian officials and business leaders who were briefed on the initiative.
The goal is to offer an alternative to Trump’s proposal, which was first floated in February, to take over Gaza, expel its population and transform the territory into a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Trump’s announcement shocked the world and angered U.S. allies, including Egypt and Jordan, where officials say a mass influx of Palestinians would pose an existential threat….
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The most significant of these is a consensus that Hamas cannot play a role in governing Gaza in the future, according to individuals briefed on the discussions. In return, Arab states are expected to request guarantees on Palestinian statehood, said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at Eurasia Group
For the reconstruction period, Egypt has proposed a technocratic committee to administer Gaza. This proposal will be on the Arab League’s agenda Tuesday, according to the former official. The committee would be composed of independent figures but would nominally fall under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority, …
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While Qatar has allowed Hamas to maintain an office in Doha, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates maintain a much harder line against Islamist organizations. The questions around what would happen to Hamas members are among the thorniest. Arab countries are debating the disarmament and potential exile of Hamas militants to third countries.
Abdelatty, the foreign minister, said Saturday that Egypt is willing to train Palestinian police to secure Gaza in lieu of Hamas. The police would be led by former Palestinian officers who served in the previous Fatah security force that went dormant when Hamas took over the Strip in 2007, according to the former Egyptian official, and Israel would approve their names.
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Israel looking to squeeze Gaza to get Hamas to release more hostages….
The Israeli government is reportedly planning to ratchet up its blockade on Gaza as part of what it has called a “hell plan” to pressure Hamas into further hostage releases without a troop withdrawal from the Palestinian territory.
With the six-week-old ceasefire in limbo, and no sign of movement towards a second phase that was due to start last weekend, both sides were taking contingency steps to return to a war footing.
The government of Benjamin Netanyahu was reported to have made preparations to go beyond the suspension of food and fuel announced on Sunday, to implement a programme of steadily increased isolation of the coastal strip and its population of about 2.2 million, according to the national public radio station, Kan, which said the government was referring to the programme of measures as the “hell plan”.
The plan would involve cutting off electricity and remaining water supplies, and moving Palestinians in northern Gaza back down to the south, to pave the way to the potential resumption of full-scale war….
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The defence minister, Israel Katz, has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to make preparations for a return to combat, according to the Walla news site. From Wednesday, they will be serving under a new chief of staff, Maj Gen Eyal Zamir, who has been an advocate of using overwhelming force aimed at achieving a quick, decisive victory over the remnants of Hamas in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there were reports in the Arab press that Hamas was also getting ready for the resumption of fighting. Qatar’s Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported that Hamas and other armed factions had gone back to a war footing, with those holding Israeli hostages to resume heightened security measures.
Hamas is also said to have been extracting high explosives from unexploded Israeli weapons fired during the war, for use in roadside bombs if the fighting starts again.
Talks on the ceasefire have stalled since Friday. The Israeli government is insisting on a proposal extending the first phase of the ceasefire during Ramadan and then Passover until 20 April, during which half the remaining hostages would be released in return for Palestinians in Israeli jails. The other half would be released once there was agreement on a lasting end to the war.
There are still 59 Israeli hostages yet to return from Gaza, but Israeli authorities believe at least 34 are already dead.
Netanyahu has attributed the proposal to the US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, though Witkoff has so far not spoken about it.
Hamas has rejected the proposal, saying it represents a violation of the original truce agreement in January that envisaged the ceasefire moving into a second phase this week, in which hostage releases would be coupled with Israeli troop withdrawals from strategic points in Gaza, starting with the Philadelphi corridor, a buffer strip between Gaza and Egypt….
ISW….Iran Update, March 3, 2025
Iranian leaders are responding to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted strikes into Iran in its April and October 2024 that neutralized the S-300s.[6] These Russian-sourced S-300s were the most advanced Iranian air defense capability to this point. The loss of the S-300s has forced Tehran to develop new ways to counter aerial threats, though it is far from clear that it will develop any seriously viable solutions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz directed the IDF on March 3 to “prepare to defend the Druze community” in response to fighting in Jaramana, Rif Dimashq.[7] It is unclear what political end state the Israeli government seeks to achieve with these plans. The Israeli government has yet to release further details or articulate a clear vision of what a victory would encompass. Netanyahu said on February 23 that the Israeli government will “not tolerate any threat to the Druze community” and called for southern Syria to fully demilitarize.[8] Protests erupted across Syria, particularly in majority Druze areas, on February 25 and 26, rejecting Israeli intervention.[9] The Druze community is highly diverse and loyalty to a particular leader within the community varies across Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.[10] Prominent Lebanese Druze politician Walid Jumblatt claimed on March 2 that Israel was attempting to stoke sectarian divisions within Syria.[11]
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