Ukraine Update…Day 1,039….Trump goes with Putin on NATO and the Ukraine….

• Donald Trump has said he sympathises with the Russian position that Ukraine should not be part of Nato, and lamented that he will not be able to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin before his inauguration. Though Nato members and the Biden administration have expressed support for its eventual membership, Ukraine has never been extended an invitation. Kyiv says joining Nato will deter further Russian aggression. Conversely, Trump and his allies claim Ukraine’s membership will unnecessarily provoke Moscow and drag the alliance into a war. “A big part of the problem is, Russia – for many, many years, long before Putin – said, ‘You could never have Nato involved with Ukraine.’ Now, they’ve said that. That’s been, like, written in stone,” Trump said. “And somewhere along the line Biden said, ‘No. They should be able to join Nato.’ Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I could understand their feelings about that.”

• The Biden administration will announce a “substantial” final weapons package for Ukraine, the Associated Press reports. Defence secretary Lloyd Austin will announce the package on a visit to Germany to meet with representatives from about 50 countries who have assisted Ukraine. While the exact value of the package was not provided by defence officials to the Associated Press, they said it would not include all of the roughly $4bn left in the remaining funding for Ukraine. The package follows a $1.25bn aid package in December and a series of aid announcements as it hurried to provide military assistance before President Joe Biden leaves office. The officials said roughly 80-90% of all stockpile equipment promised has already been provided to Ukraine.

• An upcoming visit to Kyiv by Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia will be rescheduled, Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said. He said he was confident the meeting between Keith Kellogg and Ukrainian officials would “take place in its own time” and that the two countries are in contact to “ensure that the meeting is meaningful as possible”.

• Ukraine’s general staff announced 94 clashes in the Russian Kursk region on Tuesday, double the number from the day before. A Russian defence ministry statement listed six locations where its troops had defeated Ukrainian brigades, and a further seven where it said it had initiated strikes on Ukrainian troops and equipment. Reports on both sides were not able to be verified by Reuters. Ukraine launched a new offensive in the region on Sunday, but has not provided details of the operation or what the objectives are.

• The Ukrainian army says fighting in Kurakhove, which Russia claimed to have seized, is still ongoing. Victor Tregubov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia army unit said on national TV that Ukrainian troops are holding on the western outskirts of the town, while accusing Russia of using scorched earth tactics to “completely destroy” the town. “They’re actually trying to dismantle the town brick by brick”, he said, adding that Ukraine was “inflicting losses on them so that they do not advance further”.

• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has accused Russia of using “gas as a weapon” after Russia’s Gazprom cut off heating and hot water in the region of Transnistria in Moldova over a financial dispute. On the same day, a gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, was not renewed, leaving people reliant on burning wood and plug-in electric heaters. Writing on social media platform X, she said she had reaffirmed the EU’s “unwavering solidarity” with Moldova in a call with its prime minister, Dorin Recean….

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Russian forces recently advanced in northwestern Toretsk following several weeks of higher tempo Russian offensive operations and gains in the area. Geolocated footage published on January 6 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Kvitkova Street and reached the northwestern administrative boundary of Toretsk. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced along Pyrohova Street in northern Toretsk, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces occupy roughly 90 percent of Toretsk, but ISW has only observed geolocated footage to assess that Russian forces occupy approximately 71 percent of the settlement as of January 7.