In the current ACTUAL vote…
NOT the Polls?
Vice President Kamala Harris IS Winning BIG Right Now….
If you go on Twitter you’d think Trump is ahead….
Trump has a LOT of catching up to do ….
If he can?
Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with an advantage of 19 to 29 points among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.
All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.
But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early.
The election, of course, is decided in the swing states. But there, the polls suggest Harris is also banking a sizable advantage heading into Election Day.
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
- Arizona: 9-12 points
- Georgia: 7-10 points
- Michigan: 26-39 points
- North Carolina: 2-6 points
- Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
- Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.
All of these margins pale next to Biden’s leads in late 2020 polls of the same states. But again, they’re much closer to 2016. Hillary Clinton had only a slight lead among early voters in Arizona and Nevada, for instance. A late poll in Michigan showed her margin there at 27 points. And a late Siena poll of North Carolina showed her ahead by nine pointsamong early voters….
…
But the sum total is that it looks as if Harris will at least go into Election Day with a substantial lead banked among those who have already cast ballots. It’s good for Republicans that this margin doesn’t appear close to as large as it was in 2020, but it’s still a substantial lead that they’ll have to make up….
Harris looking pretty Damn Good 3 days out……
And of course you miss the point that among these polls of early voters, “all of them are well shy of Biden’s margins…”
You are going to jinx this thing for her if you keep this up. And it’s four days, not three days.
and no, it is not the “actual vote.” This is based on polls.
They have not started counting the “actual votes” and will not until Election Night. You sound like Trump when you spread misinformation like that.
You ARE REACHING CG…..
The ‘polls’ ARE based on ACTUAL VOTES….
They are NOT ‘polls’ based on what people WOULD vote….
No, the polls are polls. They are not actual votes. Exit polls are not actual votes either. They are polls. The difference in those is that you actually have a sample of people at a polling place. Early votes are factored into exit polls these days, but you have to assume that people are being honest that have voted and you have a representative sample. I cannot believe you are this uneducated.
There is not a single vote in America that has been counted, which is what you are claiming here.. At midnight EST Tuesday, you can watch cable tv and see the first 8 or so be counted in New Hampshire.
Every state that has early voting or mail in voting is not allowed to count a single one of them until the physical polls close in those states.
Ur REACHING….
Frank Luntz
@FrankLuntz
In Pennsylvania, where voters aged 65+ have cast nearly half of early ballots, Democrats account for ≈58% of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35% for Republicans.
That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65+.
Chris Cillizza
@ChrisCillizza
2/ 77% of Dems are more enthusiastic about this election than past elections.
67% of GOPers feel the same way.
That gap *could* matter if this race winds up being a battle of base turnout.
Chris Cillizza
@ChrisCillizza
4/ Go back to when Joe Biden was the nominee. Barely more than 50% of Dems said they were enthusiastic about the race.
That # surged to almost 80% when Harris emerged as the nominee
U WANT Harris to Win, eh?
That is based on voter registration. No votes have been counted.
Do you agree or disagree that “no votes have been counted?”
If you disagree, you are ignorant beyond belief
If you agree, you should not type things on the interne that are untrue.
What don’t you get?
‘Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with an advantage of 19 to 29 points among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots‘…..
SHE IS LEADING BY BIG Margins with those who HAVE VOTED</em>……
The word “poll” is clearly there but in your write up above you say “Not the polls.”
I keep deleting other things I want to say after I think better of it. I am just going to sign off here now.
More updates coming……
‘If’ the polls and early vote are Right?
Trump IS in trouble