NO ONE believe’s Harris is gonna actually win Iowa ….
Cept J Ann Selzer …..
Below she explains why the pundits and pollstares have been dealing with the 2016 and 2020 Trump numbers and NOT looking at this elections fundamentals ….
This from Dem Daily Kos on a Wllie Geist ….Ann Selzer…Interview
Willie Geist said, “Anne it’s great to have you with us this morning! If you would, we have sort of given you a big wind up and lead in here. If you can walk us through the poll, what you found and what has caused this shift?”
Ann Selzer, “Well, as you can imagine this is a shock poll and I have been shocked since Tuesday morning last week so I have had time for this to sink in because no one including me would thought that Iowa could go for Kamala Harris. So what we saw there was striking sort of elaboration of what has happened with our September poll where we had Kamala Harris closing by fourteen points the gap with Donald Trump and our analysis then is that it wasn’t that people are switching their allegiances. It was that more people are qualifying as likely voters in September that would definitely vote and that somebody asked me, ‘Well is Trump losing ground?’ and that’s an interesting question. And you get out your calculator and start to work that out. He actually there were more respondents weighted respondents for Trump by three individuals than he had in June but Kamala Harris got 85 and that’s because the influx, the bigger number of likely voters, extremely went to Kamala Harris and this poll is an extension of that, that the people more likely to show up are her kinds of supporters so she’s got more women, got more older people, she’s got more college educated people, and it has ended up, you look at the graph 📈 of it and it looks pretty linear, that her going from Biden’s low point in June up to now she has leapfrogged over Trump into the lead. So, there’s lots of things going on, lots of things to speculate there, but obviously we looked hard at these numb
Willie Geist, “Ann obviously there have been other polls (lol) out of Iowa , we heard Donald Trump, of course, quickly criticize your poll and say, ‘I am up by ten points in other polls, I am up double digits, how do you respond to that yours despite the track record we just laid out could be an outlier in Iowa?”
Ann Selzer, “I give credit to my method for my track record. I call my method, ‘Polling forward’, so I want to be in a place where my data can show me what’s likely to happen with the future electorate. So I just try to get out of the way of my data, saying this is what’s going to happen. A lot of other polls and I will count Emerson among them are including in the way that they manipulate the data after it comes in things that have happened in the past. So they’re taking into account exit polls, they’re taking into account what turnout was in past elections. I don’t make any assumptions like that, so in my way of thinking, it’s a cleaner way to forecast future electorate which nobody knows what that’s going to be. But we do know that our electorates change in terms of how many people are showing up, what the composition is, and so I don’t want to try to predict what that’s going to be. I want to be in a place for my data to show me. ”
……
This is what many of us have seen. If you look at the internals, the subgroups of the more reputable polls, and you look at their results after weighting and you’re bewildered because those internals with the subgroups would auger for a result much stronger for Vice President Kamala Harris, this explains it. Nate Silver has admitted that herding is taking place. He says the odds against so much close agreement is 1 in 9.5 trillion. Almost everything else would say this is not the toss up that polls are saying.
Objectively, she is the better candidate. She is younger, more dynamic, more vigorous, younger, more mentally sharp, more experience, a better communicator, giving a better message. He is pushing weird and dangerous conspiracy theories, he is much, much older, he is plainly lying, he isn’t disciplined, he faces 3 indictments, he has been convicted of 34 felonies, he was found liable for sexual assault by a jury, he has other legal challenges, he is pushing a dark vision, he is talking about using the American military against the American people and using the language of Adolf Hitler, he is expressing his bigotry.
She has run a better campaign than he has. She has a far better ground game. She has more paid staff. She has more volunteers. She has raised more money. She has better surrogates. She has a better message. Again, Donald Trump is using the language of Adolf Hitler. Do we really believe that the Adolf Hitler message is competitive with the inclusive, centrist, normal, smart campaign and message of Vice President Kamala Harris? It just doesn’t make sense that they would be tied….
image…CNN
Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1
Univision poll: Latino voters
Harris 64%
Trump 30%
69% said the Puerto Rico garbage remark was “more racist than humorous.”
Oct. 29-Nov. 3, MOE +/-5%
Apparently MAGA is super pissed at Jon Ralston for his prediction that Harris will narrowly win Nevada.
They’ve been touting his early voting analysis the last 2 weeks claiming it will doom Harris in the state.
That’s the swing state I’ve been most bearish on, and Ralston is up there with Selzer as the A+ standard in prognostication(Sorry, CG!).
Every two years Ralston plays them like a fiddle. They have been talking about his “early vote analysis” non-stop He was correct two years ago in calling the extremely close Senate race for the Democrat and the extremely close Governor race for the Republican. The only one he got wrong was he thought a Congressional Democrat would lose and she did not.
The state should be very close
The “vibe” is apparently that the Moms have finally had enough and are unplugging their sons’ gaming systems and taking Call out Duty and Fortnite away from them for the time being.
Flashbacks from eight years ago
Election Eve
What could possibly go wrong?In 24 hours Donald Trump will be gone!