Still NOT good numbers for Trump who HAS evidently reached his ceiling…..
- Harris 47%, Trump 47% (USA Today/Suffolk)
- Harris 48%, Trump 43% (CNN)
- Harris 49%, Trump 49% (Fox News)
NORTH CAROLINA
- TRUMP 50%, Harris 49% (Fox News)
PENNSYLVANIA
- Harris 47%, Trump 47% (Monmouth)
- Harris 50%, Trump 48% (YouGov)
- Trump 47%, Harris 46% (Quinnipiac)
- Harris 46%, Trump 46% (Susquehanna)
- Harris 48%, Trump 48% (CNN)
- Trump 50%, Harris 49% (Fox News)
WISCONSIN
This post will be updated as needed throughout the day….By Politicalwire
The 12:30 PM 10/30/2024 update numbers WOULD give Harris a Win….
If this entire thing comes down to Pennsylvania and a difference of a few thousand votes and she did not pick Shapiro…… oy.
Shapiro needs to do whatever the he CAN DAMN SURE DO to get his party a WIN…….
Row WITH THE PARTY!
Everyone will share the Joy
‘Do the Right Thing’
CG?
Pennsylvania IS gonna be Harris
Maybe not but much
But her’s
Exactly the same thing you said about Democrats winning the House in 2010 and 2014.
Your implication is that Shapiro “ needs”…
The fact is Shapiro has been campaigning hard for the Democratic ticket for several months.
Then he ‘should’ continue..,..
I’m sure he’ll be rewarded for his hard work
If they lose Pennsylvania, it will not be his fault. It will be the fault of Harris and her handlers for not picking him for VP.
Right now, he would be worth about 4 percent in Pennsylvania and maybe 2 percent more nationally and they would have been able to shift some focus from PA to the other battlegrounds.
Right now, it is PA or bust for her to win (plus needing at least a couple others) and PA looks 50-50.
U guys have to give it up…..
She picked Walz
She’s comfortable with him
End of story
A lot of good that comfort will do if they lose. Right now, that is a very, very realistic possibility.
So who did you vote for CG?
Liz Cheney and many other who are supporting Harris have made it clear that I never have to tell anyone.
Just
asking.
There’s nothing to “ get over.”
Yes,of course, if Harris loses Pa. and that costs her the election?You damn right there are going to be questions.
Walz has brought nothing to the ticket.Apparently, She “ liked” him and Im sure there was some babble about him being an old White guy who played football as if there are old White guys out there getting rid of their MAGA hats to support Harris because of Waltz
Shapiro is one of the most popular politicians in PA. , a pivotal state and yeah him being the first Jewish person on a national ticket would have been a plus too in my view.
If she loses?Shapiro will become a leading candidate in 2028 and Waltz?Will fade into obscurity with his namesake.Heard much about Tim Kaine lately?
I agree with virtually all of this post except for one part at the end.
I do not think Shapiro would have much of a chance as a Presidential candidate, at least without the claim to be “:next in line” such as a VP could claim.. He might wind up in the Senate or something like that.
Being Jewish, especially one who is considered observant, is just too much of a problem for the grassroots in *both* major parties.
I think Joe Lieberman is likely to forever be the only Jewish-American ever to be nominated for either President or VP by either major party.
The Jewish angle is valid
But?
We have had a mixed/ Black male President
We are gonna have Mixed/Black Woman President
We WILL HAVE a Jewish President one day
There are a hell of a lot more black people and women then there are Jewish people in America, despite what some would try to believe. A hell of a lot more. The Jewish population grows smaller in America every year too.
Also, if there is one thing that horribly bigoted white people and horribly bigoted people of color agree on in this country, is that they hate Jews.
But ?
The Jew’s in ceratin place vote in BLOCKS…..
Those blocks CAN be the difference in close election’s…
Ref: Biden’s action’s with Israel….
YES, Indeed….
There ARE a LOT of unknowns….
But the fundemental’s STILL support a Harris WIN…..
Vote in blocs?
Yes, Jewish-Americans have tended to heavily favor Democrats for generations, but it is not a monolith.
I used to be very involved in trying to reverse that trend, but left due to Trump. Now, as is the case with many other traditionally Democrat groups, Jewish-Americans are probably going to vote for Trump this year in higher numbers than ever before and the far left has a lot do with that and if they lose to Trump, this should be a matter of deep regret to mainstream Democrats.
In Brooklyn NYC and Upstate New York certain Jewish enclaves can vote in blocks of several thousand….
Easily the margin of victory in some elections…
What supports the concept of a Harris win is if you truly believe that her GOTV efforr and ground game will be far superior to the outsourcing that Trump has done in giving it to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk. That is very much a real possibility.
But just based on the polls, Trump is at least a slight favorite now. Maybe the polls are off in being too positive to him, but the last two times they were off in not being positive enough to him. It is possible that the polling has compensated too much to correct the past errors. The polls are showing him in better shape though to get to 270, and not just the Republican agenda-setting polls. The traditional polls are showing that too.
I believe that in every newsroom today, journalists and analysts except that Trump will probably win. I hope (and I am sure we all hope) that they wind up being wrong.
I disagree ….
I HAVE stated here that….
The Harris base includes….
Blacks, Browns and Yellows….
Women…
Jews….
Gays….
College Educated …
Disenchanted Republicans…
Just plain Democrats….
Trump base is just what’s left over…..
In the overall National polling?
Trump has NEVER REALLY had the lead….
The polling in the swing state’s have margins of LEES than 3%…..
The Early vote across the baord …ACTUAL VOTE is reportedly Majority Harris….
Trump maybe doing marginally better…
But Right NOW?
He’s LOSING the vote Eraly vote
Oh, I forgot?
The Abortion voting ain’t gonna help Trump with women votes either
Lastly?
I’m sure you ARE awre that owners of newspapers and other media outfit’s have DECLINED to do their tradional left leaning edorsments….
Thes guys don’t want Trump going after them if Trump becomes the President
This has cost the Wash Post more than 200,000 cancelled subscription’s
My guess is based on the fundemental’s…..
Oh, I’d like to add that even as a woman ?
Harris is seen more favorible than Trumpm also….
And?
The Economy IS moderating…..
Post in moderation
Has anyone else noticed that most posts that end up in moderation are those that disagree with James?
As he himself would say…
Hmmmm,
Trump is dressed as the Garbage Man for Halloween. He looks more ridiculous than Dukakis in a tank.
It’s just very “online.” The only people who understand what he is doing are political junkies who already have their minds made up. Normal people will see the images and think he has dementia.
Perhaps Trump has a lot of wearing orange in his future, hence the vest, but if he wanted to dress up for Halloween as something he wishes he were, he should have been Arnold Palmer.
Agreed on the ‘Trump the Garbage Man’ thing…..
It’s a nothing burger…..
Now tonight, Biden bit a baby.
Halloween event. I saw the video and it looks reasonably innocent enough but that is not how it is going to be treated online with the still photo. I gave him the benefit of the doubt on his gaffe last night that he had intended to have an apostrophe attached to the garbage remark, but that excuse is really not going to break through the noise chamber and it was a completely unnecessary distraction for Harris and her efforts.
They need to keep Biden away from cameras and microphones until this campaign is over. It is far to close to risk anything.
But in regards to “biting” the baby, at least Major and Commander did not get to have all the fun during the White House years.
I’m actually Biden is ‘riffing’ Trump finally…..
Bout Time….
As I have said, I do not think Biden actually said all of Trump’s supporters were garbage. I think he was talking specifically about Hinchcliffe, but in politics, if you are explaining you are losing, and this caused a problem for Democrats.
Now, the fact that you would embrace the concept calling Biden calling all of Trump’s supporters “garbage” is a very bad thing and explains why Democrats might actually lose this election to someone like Trump.
Biden is still the guy who told a black audience that Mitt Romney “wants to put y’all back in chains.” Biden was sort of Trump before Trump came down an escalator.
Do you deny that Trump HAS been saying WORSE things about Harris and others?
Is Biden held to a differnt standard because he’s a Democrat?
No, I do not deny that. However, he, and everybody else should be held to a higher standard than Trump by virtue of not being a sociopath.
You are the one who seems to think he said something far worse than what he actually said. I think that says more about you. You have always identified with the MAGA “call your opponent evil no matter what” brand of politics.
Of course, you would also have to disagree with how Harris and so many others had to rush like crazy to distance themselves from how the comment was perceived.
They DID rush away from Biden who I think they see as a old out of touch boss…..
And I have NEVER agreed with the violence and hardcore ‘hate’ of MAGA types….
Everone should get chance to vote….
And this country is a DAMN GOOD one ….
NOT a shithole like Trump has sold to get his supporters scared…..
No….
I AM worried that ARE those out ther that look past their shithole leader’s transgrations…
Name calling isn’t the issue….
A old man trying to emulate his buddy Putin way of running country IS
No, not violence I presume. Just complete and utter dishonesty and lies in the name of winning an election, such as your celebration of Harry Reid deliberately lying about Mitt Romney’s taxes. At least Reid eventually sort of apologized to Romney as he was dying.
If Trump beats Harris, I am pretty certain you will say it is fraudulent and Congress should not certify on January 6.
is the word biting under moderation?
Well, my analysis on Biden “biting a baby” less than a week before the election is under moderation.
Too bad this filer cannot be applied to the White House.
Tonight, at his rally, Trump, dressed like the Village People Crossing Guard, said that he would protect women. He said, “I’m gonna do it whether the women like it or not.”
That’s quite the promise. It might get more airplay if Joe Biden could stay away from cameras and microphones.
The Village People were poipular with Gay’s…..
Hmmmmm?
I hope this doesn’t make me fit in with the Daily Kos blog types, but I actually have become convinced that Trump has some latent homosexual desires.
Could be….
But THAT is HIS issue……
Harris seems to be doing quite well in Michigan. I think Walz being a union guy helps her there.
And I think she still wins Pennsylvania.
A right wing pollster asked if Shapiro was on the ticket if it would change the result. It was within the margin of error.
Shapiro will be a great national candidate some day but Walz was the right choice for Harris for a lot of reasons that people who are actually out and about in the world realize.
Michigan is tied now according to the polls. In 2020, it was the bluest of the swing states, so maybe it will be again. It is a good thing that RFK is stuck on the ballot there. Those on the fringe left who would have boycotted Harris/Shapiro in Michigan due to their anti-Semitism,appear willing to still do it now with Harris/Walz.
Picking Shapiro, besides the specific lift in Pennsylvania,would have taken a lot of the attack lines off the table.I am telling you that there are a lot of Jewish-Americans who are going to vote for Trump this year for the first time.
And while VP debates historically matter little, it was a huge missed opportunity. Trump and Vance came away from that look looking normalized to the low-info voters with short attention spans. Harris’s slide in the polls coincided with that debate.
Walz is a teachers union guy. I assume Democrats are doing as well with those union members as they always have, if not a bit better.
There is no evidence though that he has meant anything to the “blue collar” unions. All indications are that Harris is doing a good deal worse among them, especially with men, than Biden did. The non-endorsements from the Teamasters and the Firefighters are significant. (No I am not saying Biden should have stayed in the race. He should have gotten out earlier or never run at all.)
Democrats are swiftly losing working class “union guys” (while gaining other types of people) and that does not seem likely to change anytime soon.
Walz is also a hunter, a veteran and was raised on a farm. He has a longer record as governor than Shapiro and his free lunch program is wildly popular.
These things may not matter to you but I’m glad your parents at least voted Harris/Walz.
The hunters are gone for the Democrats, except for Hunter Biden. The farmers are gone. While I am no expert on hunting, the video of Walz hunting looked like he did not really know what he was doing.
If this race comes down to Pennsylvania, and if it winds up being as close as it looks,k the difference might be Jewish voters in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, who I imagine are much like the Jewish voters in the Chicago suburbs I have been around my whole life. There are a lot of people who have never voted Republican before, or at least certainly not for Trump, who have varying levels of concern about what has been happening to Democrats, especially after October 7.
I know hunters and farmers who are Denocrats. You need to get out more.
Democrats.
What do they farm? What do they hunt?
One is a dairy farmer with about 100 head and as it’s Missouri he grows corn of course. He’s my 3rd cousin.
Another is a dairy farmer in Wisconsin with about 300 head. Another has a garlic farm.
What do you think most people hunt? Deer is what allmy relatives and friends who hunt primarily hunt. My old coworker who lived in Texas and still has fond memories of voting for Ann Richard’s hunts pheasants and is an avid gun collector (buy hates the NRA)
Do you want me to go on?
I see we’re trying to squeeze more glue out of the dead Shapiro for VP horse. At least we’re not quoting Archie Bunker this time!
It’s a pointless discussion.
I misremembered “All in the Family.” Shapiro was his doctor. His sharklike Jewish lawyers were Rabinowitz, Rabonowitz, and Rabinowitz.
No, I am curio-us.
Sure, you will find people going against the grain politically in wall walks of life, but I am sure you would actually agree with me that there are a whole lot less hunters and farmers who consider themselves Democrats than there were when you grew up. There are also a whole lot of union guys who loves themselves some Donald Trump and his policies.
This filter is impossible to get around. It is a waste of time to try.
But I am curious. What do they hunt? What do they farm? Don’t leave me to my own snarky devices.
Filter is impossible to get around. I cannot explain it.
I am serious on the questions though.
The word that connotes the consumption of deer got you filtered. It’s the end of a divisive election, and a Moderator has to do what a Moderator has to do to keep miscreants with ill intent at bay.
All sorts of groups can influence local elections. You can certainly say the same about African-American voters as a “bloc” in certain places. You seem to be talking about certain specific Hasidic Orthodox Jewish enclaves. Are they any less American or should be any less free to vote the way they want in any election?
About two percent of America is Jewish and of that two percent, about 10 percent of that is Orthodox, and among those who are Orthodox, probably less than five percent live in Brooklyn or that one place in Westchester County. Orthodox Jews tend to be much more conservative politically than Jews at large, but the same can be said for the most observant members of any religion.
It is very much an issue or problem when somebody ascribes political power or bad motives to such a small population segment. It is an ancient anti-Semitic trope.
They ARE American Jews……
They SHOULD their preference…..
Bad mouth?
Nah….
Just a fact….
As u point out all sorts of bloc’s exist ….
No problem in stating the fact….
U shouldn’t be offended
So. I do not know what point you are possibly trying to make. This business about Jews voting in blocs or “blocks” is not relative to anything, especially as it relates to a Presidential race.
African-Americans will probably vote about 80 percent for Harris and Jews, a far, far, far smaller group than African-Americans will probably vote about 60-65 percent for Harris. Why are the Jews being criticized for voting in lockstep?
Besides the fact that Trump will do at least a little bit better this election with both African-Americans and Jews (not even to mention Hispanics where he seems en route to do more than just a little better), this could be a problem for them in the closest states, especially if overall turnout is down.
Of course it IS…..
It’s about political power….
STRAIGHT UP…..
Stop being naive…..
You seem to be saying that Jews have disproportionate or undue “political power” and that cannot be viewed as anything beyond a bigoted belief.
And it is especially weird that a self-professed Democrat would believe such a trope and be upset about it, considering the fact that most Jews (and extra especially the wealthy ones) are Democrats. It would make more sense coming from the Tiki Torch crowd.
It raises a lot of questions for me .
Millions and millions of Americans are going to vote for Trump whether you or I like it or not. Their votes will count, as they should, the same as all the “:groups” you say will vote for Harris.
Again, the national popular vote does not elect a President but it sure looks closer than it did in 2020 and will probably wind up being closer than it was in 2016 as well. Depending on turnout margin, Harris will probably have to win the popular vote by at least 3, probably 4 points, to get to 270, and maybe just barely at that.
He, he, he…..
If it was the guy with MOST vote’s?
Republicans could stop wasting their time…..
They’d NEVER win, which is wht th electoral college IS here to stay….
If the Republican nominee were not Donald Trump (and not Vivek or DeSantis either) they would be headed for a clear popular vote win right now.
But of course, Republicans have been stuck on stupid for eight years now.
This business about Orthodox Jewish Bloc Voting has been written about before. The most prominent and controversial examples involve support for the Clintons and potential quid pro quos.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthodox_Jewish_bloc_voting
These are minuscule population numbers as it would relate to anything other than a very local election. The amount of Orthodox Jews living in homogeneous communities where they would follow the orders of a religious leader is beyond minuscule as it would relate to Jewish-Americans at large.