23 Days out from Election Day….
Americans ARE ALREADY voting by mail and in person around the country….
Harris still mantains a small lead Nationally and in the Electoral Vote….
Media gets it’s horse race….
The election WILL come down to turnout…..
Real Clear Politics …..October 13, 2024
The Harris/Walz ticket WILL carry the VAST MAJORITY of Black, Latino, Asian, Young, College Educated…
Harris/Walz will also carry the Women’s and Older Voters…
BTW?
Black Males OVERWHELMING SUPPORT Harris….
The media is having a baby over Obama comments…
I’d guess most of editors in the meda. ain’t Black and don’t know WTF support numbers are?….
Sadly, I could see Trump getting in the 12-16% range among blacks, a la Dole in 1996.
Given the sheer population boom in the last decade, 85-88% will be a more significant number for Harris than 97% was for Obama in 2008.
Also, Obama won Hispanics 67-31 in 2008 and 71-27 in 2012.
Right now, I think 69-31 Harris is reasonable.
A Daily Kos piece fronting that the ACTUAL Vote ALREADY IS strong FOR DEMOCRATS.…
Ignore the poll averages (and the anxiety of the elites) – actual voter data shows we are winning.
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…The thing is that we now have lots of data in terms of actual observable actions — in terms of what voters are doing not saying what they will do — that clearly show that we are getting more of our voters to the polls than the GOP (and what the models used by almost all of the pollsters say is happening). Unfortunately, the vast majority of the polling and self proclaimed elections “data scientists” (lovers of averages) are ignoring and not factoring in this data….
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Wasserman, Cohn’s and every other pollsters’ theory is that infrequent (or new voters) are going to break for Trump and that — despite the Dems strong performance in 2022 and elsewhere — the general election voters are different and like Donald Trump. They have built their models on who will show up to vote on this basis. And, they have spent their time trying to poll who they think those new voters will be and are now actively ignoring actual data about who is actually showing up to vote and continue to almost solely focus on polls based on models predicated on people’s statement of intent rather than actual behavior….
More…