I have been bashing the last few Times polling here….
So?
I’m happy to see this poll finally join other’s in showing Harris continuing her lead in the National polls…
It’s close for her….
But her state wide polling also has her leading in possible Electoral College results which would give her the Presidency…
This polling shows that Donald Trump’s age, like what was with Joe Biden, is working against him….
Voters are now more likely to credit Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald J. Trump with representing change and caring about people like them, as Ms. Harris takes a slim lead nationally in the race for the White House, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.
The finding is the first time Ms. Harris has led Mr. Trump in the Times/Siena poll since July, when President Biden dropped out of the race and Democrats rallied behind Ms. Harris as his replacement. It comes as the contest moves into its final month, and surveys from the battleground states find the race to be one of the closest in modern history.
While the Times/Siena poll shows some solid advantages for Mr. Trump, the results suggest Ms. Harris is making gains, if small ones, on questions about temperament, trust and change that can be critical in a presidential race.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters, found that Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump, the Republican, by 49 percent to 46 percent, a slight lead that is within the poll’s margin of error….
…
Mr. Trump, 78, who was voted out of the White House in 2020, has presented himself as an agent of change, and has regularly tried to saddle Ms. Harris with unpopular parts of Mr. Biden’s record. But the Times/Siena poll found voters said Ms. Harris was the candidate representing change in this election, 46 percent to 44 percent. The finding was a first for Ms. Harris; in previous Times/Siena polls, Mr. Trump has been identified as the candidate of change.
Ms. Harris, who is 59, was seen by a wide margin, 61 percent to 29 percent, as the change candidate among voters who are not white. Younger voters see her as the change candidate by a lopsided margin: 58 percent to 34 percent.
“The age difference between the two candidates makes a huge difference on change,” said Darry Knox, 58, a Democrat in Memphis who said he intended to vote for Ms. Harris. “They see the world differently. They look at the world differently, and they have different views about the world.”
Mr. Trump held onto the edge as a strong leader, albeit by a narrow margin, which could prove crucial with the Middle East in turmoil.
But Ms. Harris was, by a wide margin, seen as more honest and trustworthy than Mr. Trump. And Ms. Harris, whose campaign has promoted videos and memes of her laughing, joking and dancing, was viewed as the more fun of the two candidates. The poll found that 43 percent of likely voters — and 13 percent of Republicans — thought Ms. Harris was more fun.
How the Times/Siena poll compares
| HARRIS | TRUMP | MARGIN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena
Likely voters Sept. 29-Oct. 6 |
49% | 46% | Harris +4 |
| Polling average
As of 5 a.m. Oct. 8 |
49% | 46% | Harris +3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research
Likely voters Sept. 23-Oct. 1 |
49% | 44% | Harris +5 |
| Marist College
Likely voters Sept. 27-Oct. 1 |
50% | 48% | Harris +2 |
| Emerson College
Likely voters Sept. 29-Oct. 1 |
50% | 49% | Harris +2 |
Nate Silver today….
….Some of the problem is that people can confuse this forecast for a prediction of vote share: if Harris were to win 55 percent of the vote and Trump 45 percent, that would be the biggest landslide in an American election since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But that’s not what this forecast is saying. Rather, it’s that Harris will win the Electoral College about 11 times out of 20 and Trump will win it 9 times out of 20: still basically a toss-up, just with the coin weighted ever so slightly in Harris’s favor….
More…