It’s NOT like Florida and the Carolina’s haven’t had enough ALREADY….
Tropical Storm Milton formed Saturday, and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Monday in the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Threat level: Milton, which could quickly pick up strength, is forecast to hit the storm-weary west coast of Florida by midweek next week.
- Computer models and official forecasts show a likely intensity of Category 2 or higher at landfall.
- The area under greatest threat for landfall includes Tampa-St. Petersburg, including Sarasota, as well as areas north to Crystal River and south to Naples.
Yes, but: Milton isn’t forecast to be as large as devastating Hurricane Helene was, and it is unlikely to impact the southern Appalachians or hard-hit areas of Georgia and South Carolina.
- As of Saturday afternoon, computer models show the storm moving off the eastern coast of Florida by the end of the week, and out to sea from there.
- Each hurricane threat is different, and past storms — Helene or otherwise — aren’t a reliable guide for this next one. That’s especially the case in this era of climate change-worsened storms.
- Nevertheless, depending on its exact track and intensity, this storm is likely to pose major challenges for recovery operations in the wake of Helene.
The big picture: The National Hurricane Center in Miami noted in an online forecast discussion that its track forecasts are typically off by about 150 miles this far ahead of time in the forecast.
- It poses a potentially significant threat for storm surge-related flooding, high winds and perhaps most importantly, a foot or more of rainfall that could fall across much of the state.
- Southeastern Florida, including Miami and West Palm Beach, are included in that heavy rain threat zone….
image…Developing Tropical Storm Milton seen via infrared satellite imagery on Saturday afternoon…..CIRA/RAMMB