These ARE judges in RED States folks…..
Could ALL the noise about the Election count issues be just that…..
Noise?
“A judge tossed out a Republican Party lawsuit aimed at tightening the qualifications for Americans overseas to cast ballots in Michigan,” Politico reports.
…
“A GOP challenge to Pennsylvania’s procedures for overseas voters appeared to run aground here Friday as a federal judge called the lawsuit ‘creative,’ but repeatedly raised questions about why it was filed less than six weeks before Election Day,” Politico reports.
…
A federal judge ordered Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) administration to stop threatening television stations with criminal prosecution for airing a political ad in favor of enshrining abortion rights in the state’s Constitution, the New York Times reports.
…
“A judge invalidated seven new Georgia election rules Wednesday, including requirements for a ‘reasonable inquiry’ before elections are certified, hand counts on election night and additional access for partisan poll watchers,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
CNN: “Among the rules Fulton County Superior Court Judge Thomas Cox said violated state law are two that would require county election officials to conduct a ‘reasonable inquiry’ into election results before certifying them and allow them to ‘examine all election related documentation created during the conduct of elections prior to certification of results.’”
…
“A judge stopped a planned hand count of ballots on election night in Georgia, ruling Tuesday that it would create ‘administrative chaos’ if poll workers were required to handle millions of ballots without being trained,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney put the State Election Board’s hand-count requirement on hold primarily because it was approved so close to Election Day. The manual review would have counted the number of ballots but not votes.”
New York Times: “The rule was one of many new election provisions approved in Georgia since summer that hewed closely to policy goals of right-wing election activists. It was a key achievement of the State Election Board, which has recently been governed by a 3-2 right-wing majority.”
New Open Thread is HERE…..
13 days out…..
Harris maintains her lead in the polling averages
Early Voting numbers climb
‘Exhausted’ or not?
Trump is out campaigning and making negative headlines as usual
I believe Harris best chance for a winning margin is in Georgia and Nevada
I do not believe she will win North Carolina
Reports ARE that contrary to a couple of things?
Donald Trump will vote early?
I guess a convicted felon can vote there
I guess Trump now is convinced early voting is ok?
Point to be made……
Trump’s lemmings ARE setting in motion ways to challenge his impending LOSS????
You seem to be forgetting about Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Win those, you do not need Georgia or North Carolina or Arizona or Nevada (though you would need to win Omaha, NE.) Losing any of them, and there is probably not much of a path.
Georgia does not seem extremely realistic for Harris right now. Trump ending his feud with Kemp turned out to be smart. North Carolina seems a bit more realistic than Georgia.
I STRONGLY BELIEVE Harries will carry the Big Three
Trump LOST IN 2020
Remember?
It’s a good thing you were not around in 1892.
He, he, he
I’m old
But NOT THAT OLD
U still think Trump will win?
“can.” That is the only relevant term. Both “can.”
Your decision to not even think about the three Rust Belt States and assume they are a given is really foolish.
In fact those states HAVE be Democratic for a long time
They have polled Democratic on the regular
I expect them to stay that way
Springsteen to play at the Thursday rally my mother and I are attending.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/22/bruce-springsteen-to-headline-harris-obama-rally/
I have spoken of Florida as an opportunity for Democrats. No longer. Right now, Trump and Scott both narrowly win the state.
Florida was NEVER IN play
Neither will Texas be
I’m more agnostic on Texas and Ohio, as far as states beyond the “Core 7” go. We will see. They’re now the only such 2 I have an eye on. The closer I get to an actual prediction, the more I cull down the field of opportunities.
Yo SE?
Ohio was lost to Democrats a good while ago
I’m NOT watching Harris on CNN….
I’ll do a follow-up……
Point taken on Ohio. That one and the Maine district have fallen from my list of Harris possibilities.
12 days out…….
Good Morning…….
She STILL Leads…..
Trump is acting like he KNOWS he’s gonna lose and needs to fight his loss…
Morning……..
11 Days out……
Media narrative on Trump IS steady negative
But mostly ABOUT him
The woman President thing lurking in the background
We gonna break voting records
More and more people who have worked for the guy have come forward to admit he’s fucked up and dangerous
The American Prophet has spoken. May this be so.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KrHp2kfut7A
Hogan….Ron G’s old boss ain’t gonna win…..
Angela Alsobrooks Holds Big Lead Over Larry Hogan
A new a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll finds Angela Alsobrooks (D) leading Larry Hogan (R) in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 52% to 40%.
Key takeaway: “The poll finds that 38% of voters think Hogan would act independently of Republican leaders if elected to the U.S. Senate, while 49% say he would support the policies of Republican leaders.”
Morning……
11 days out…..
I AM sticking with Harris WIN…..
GOP Senate….
Dem House….
This WILL be about TURNOUT which IS breaking records…..
Morning…….
9 days out…….
Harris STILL LEADS in the national polling averages and EV totals by a hair
The pundits agree that they would rather be Harris than Trump a week out….
I’ll have a piece on Harris enjoying an event in TEXAS of all places!
Actually?
I just looked at the national’s across the board and Harris is trending up very slightly
The ‘BIG DEAL’ IS that OWNERS of the top media outfits HAVE conflicting business assets that they ARE afreaid Trump would screw with….
They are also worried that a Trump Presidency would lock their reporters out of access to the Government….
Yea…
It’s their company….
But for workers?
The BULLY IS getting his way….
I do NOT buy that there are ‘undecided’ voters….
If you can’t deal witha woman President for a felon, sexual predator that can’t give a coherent sentence?
THAT IS who ur screwed up enough to vote for….
Virginia WILL come down FOR Harris…..
Why?
In the new Emerison national poll?
Woman WILL vote FOR Harris by a TWENTY / 20% MARGIN
Those people are anti-Democrat….
Don’t matter if Trump is fucked up…..
Early voting has begun in New York….
My local polling station has a line….
This election will probably break a record in voting which should work against Trump….
Who ever thought Virginia was in play?
Morning
8 Days out…….
Harris trending upwards in the final days…
I Still think this IS hers and the Democrats get the house and lose the senate
Yes Scott…..
Harris isn’t Hillary….
Again?
Pundits seem to be inching back to Harris
Lines at my early voting locations
HUGE TURNOUT favors Democrats
The CBS poll points to the heart of the voting
Dealing with the concept of a American WOMAN Resident
One of color even against a crazed bully old white guy
And a LOT of people will be choosing the white guy
Wouldn’t mind a Keith update
CG and Daniel either…..
Going into the home stretch
Squirrelly Sheehy may just make the race closer than it might otherwise have been. Skeptical it will be enough for Tester, but this may go back on the board in the final stretch.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna176726
Tester has some of the best luck in politics. Well see just how far it goes. Last poll I saw had Trump winning by around 20 points in Montana. That’s a lot to outrun.
No Shit!….
The New York Times looks back on the life of Grateful Dead bass man Phil Lesh.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/arts/music/phil-lesh-grateful-dead-bassist.html
Harris 51 Trump 47 in new ABC poll.
Key findings–Harris has regained footing with Hispanic voters (64=-34) and is running the usual huge margin Democrats have with black voters (90-7).
This poll assumes a whiter electorate (70%) than 2020 (67%). Not sure why. If anything I would expect the white percentage to drop a little from 4 years ago.
Link to poll
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875
Official 2024 Predictions
National Popular Vote
Kamala Harris/Tim Walz-53%
Donald Trump/JD Vance-46%
Electoral College
Harris/Walz-359 EV’s(holding all the ‘Core 7’ swing states, plus the Omaha, NE, District, and flipping NC and TX)
Trump/Vance-179 EV’s
State by State Result Surmisions
Alabama: 55-43 Trump(increases in D support around Auburn, Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa cut significantly into R margins, far from enough to flip a dark red state)
Alaska: 52-47 Trump
Arizona: 51-48 Harris
Arkansas: 56-44 Trump(large gains around Little Rock Suburbs and NW AR metros cut into R margins)
California: 63-35 Harris
Colorado: 57-42 Harris
Connecticut: 58-41 Harris
Delaware: 60-39 Harris
Florida: 52-47 Trump(continued R trends in the Broward/Miami Dade/Palm Beach area swing the state glacially to the right, D trends in Gainesville/Alachua County, Jacksonville, and Saint Petersburg cancel a lot of it out)
Georgia: 51-47 Harris
Hawaii: 66-33 Harris
Idaho: 59-40 Trump(big D swings around Boise and various College towns make it closer than usual)
Illinois: 59-41 Harris
Indiana: 56-44 Trump
Iowa: 52-48 Trump
Kansas: 53-47 Trump(lots of Moderate R voters crossing over in the wake of Roe v Wade’s overturning makes this a closer result, and potentially a state to watch in the future)
Kentucky: 55-44 Trump(big D swings around the Lexington, Frankfort, and Cincinnati metros cut margins down considerably)
Louisiana: 58-42 Trump
Maine: 56-43 Harris
ME-1: 62-37 Harris
ME-2: 53-47 Trump
Maryland: 68-31 Harris
Massachusetts: 62-38 Harris
Michigan: 52-47 Harris
Minnesota: 55-45 Harris
Mississippi: 56-44 Trump
Missouri: 54-45 Trump
Montana: 60-40 Trump
Nebraska: 55-44 Trump
NE-1: 52-47 Trump
NE-2: 55-45 Harris
NE-3: 71-28 Trump
Nevada: 51-49 Harris
New Hampshire: 57-43 Harris
New Jersey: 58-41 Harris
New Mexico: 56-44 Harris
New York: 61-39 Harris
North Carolina: 52-47 Harris
North Dakota: 65-34 Trump
Ohio: 51-48 Trump
Oklahoma: 58-42 Trump(D swings in OKC and Tulsa drag Harris to the highest D vote share since the 90’s)
Oregon: 59-41 Harris
Pennsylvania: 52-47 Harris
Rhode Island: 58-41 Harris
South Carolina: 52-47 Trump(D swings in Greenville, Florence, and the Charlotte Metro counties make this an unusually close state, and one to watch going forward)
South Dakota: 59-40 Trump(D swings around Rapid City and the Indian Reservations make this the best D performance since Obama)
Tennessee: 58-41 Trump
Texas: 51-48 Harris
Utah: 55-44 Trump
Vermont: 73-27 Harris
Virginia: 55-44 Harris
Washington: 60-39 Harris
Washington DC: 94-6 Harris
West Virginia: 63-37 Trump
Wisconsin: 53-47 Harris
Wyoming: 66-34 Trump
Senate
Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego 54-46 over Republican Kari Lake
Florida: Incumbent Republican Rick Scott 51-48 over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel Powell
Indiana: Republican Jim Banks 55-45 over Democrat Valerie McCray
Maryland: Democrat Angela Alsobrooks 58-41 over Republican Larry Hogan
Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 52-46 over Republican Mike Rogers
Missouri: Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley 53-47 over Democrat Lucas Kunce
Montana: Tim Sheehy 52-48 over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester(Republican Gain)
Nebraska(full term): Dan Osborn 51-48 over incumbent Republican Deb Fischer(Independent/Democratic Gain)
Nevada: Incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen 54-46 over Republican Sam Brown
Ohio: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown 51-48 over Republican Bernie Moreno
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr 53-46 over Republican David McCormick
Texas: Collin Allred 51-47 over incumbent Republican Ted Cruz(Democratic Gain)
Utah: Republican John Curtis 57-43 over Democrat Caroline Gleich
West Virginia: Republican Jim Justice 59-40 over Democrat Glenn Elliott(Republican Gain)
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin 54-46 over Republican Eric Hovde
An even wash, with Democrats retaining their Senate majority and an opportunity to expand such in 2026.
House
Democratic gains AL-2(New District), AZ-1(Schweikert), AZ-2(Crane), AZ-6(Ciscomani), CA-3(Kiley), CA-13(Duarte), CA-22(Valadao), CA-27(Garcia), CA-40(Kim), CA-41(Calvert), CA-45(Steel), CO-3(Open), FL-4(Bean), FL-13(Luna), IA-1(Miller-Meeks), IA-2(Hinson), IA-3(Nunn), LA-6(New District), MI-4(Huizenga), MI-10(James), NE-2(Bacon), NJ-7(Kean Jr), NY-1(LaLota), NY-3(D’Esposito), NY-19(Molinaro), NY-21(Stefanik), NY-22(Williams), NC-9(Hudson), NC-11(Edwards), OH-10(Turner), OH-15(Carey), OR-5(Chavez-DeRemer), PA-1(Fitzpatrick), PA-10(Perry), SC-4(Timmons), TX-15(De La Cruz), TX-31(Carter), VA-1(Wittman), VA-2(Kiggans), WI-1(Steil), WI-3(Van Orden)
Republican gains: ME-2(Golden), NC-6(Open), NC-14(Open)
D +38
Governors
Indiana: Republican Mike Braun 52-45 over Democrat Jennifer McCormick
New Hampshire: Democrat Joyce Craig 50-48 over Republican Kelly Ayotte
North Carolina: Democrat Josh Stein 58-39 over Republican Mark Robinson
D +1
Optimism run amok.
Morning……..
7 days out
Trump’s Dark Side and Soul comes out
I may have to submit revisions to my predictions, mainly in respect to Florida. I’d been bearish recently on the state given recent history. The Madison Square Garden Rally may just thread the state into Harris’ column by eroding Trump’s support abomg Hispanics in the closing stretch.
Should have stuck to submitting this on Halloween like I originally planned on doing.
Florida will probably be for Trump
Lotta early Latino votes BEFORE the Madison Square Garden mess
My official 2024 predictions are in moderation. Not unexpected, it is a long post.
Damn SE!…..
You ARE ON THE CASE😆‼️
Thank You……
My comments on you prediction to come in a bit….
Judges KEEP Deep sixing GOP efforts to screw up the vote for next Tuesday….
A federal appeals court has refused to reinstate a Virginia purge program that was intended to clear suspected noncitizens from the state’s voter rolls.
The decision from the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will leave in place a lower court ruling that found the state’s program likely violated the federal law that says voters can’t be removed in the 90 days before an election. It will likely set up the case to be heard by the Supreme Court…..
More…
I dropped it 4 days early, on the heels of that terrific ABC News poll that had her up 4. It was said on here a week ago things are breaking her way. That and the Texas rally with Beyonce are concrete examples of this being the case. Super stoked!
Going to aim for some kind of an election editorial, as well. Thought I was closer to done on that before I saw the disturbing Trump rally with Tucker Carlson and his…unique perspective on things like biology and justice. And the Trump rally where he called the USA a “garbage can.”
Ok….
My view IS a Harris win as I have been saying…..
It depends on if she can get either NC or Ga to go towards the 320 Biden got….
Texas Harris????
NC AND Georgia?????
I STILL think the Democrats Lose their Senate majority with Tester in trouble….
The House I think goes to Dem’s with gains here In NY…..
He ‘s selling that he’s the “Saviour?’
The fucking guy is a convicted felon, sexual predator and owes NYS a half a BILLION Dollars….
If Trump loses?
Will Jack Smith have a freeforall to go after the TONS of Trump & Co. illegal shit?
You better believe it. Got to get out and vote to make that dream come true, though.
So your “ prediction “was more like a “ wish.”
I was referring more to the Jack Smith portion of that post.
Should Trump somehow win, that all will have been a dream.
One of these days, we need to get CG to tell us the story of how he broke his cherry with Barbara Bush(or someone who looked like her) in a truck stop shower stall in Newark, NJ.
2028 Quarterbacking
Tim Sheehy, the likely winner of the Montana Senate race next week, must be considered a likely VP pick for either Don Jr or Tucker Carlson(Two of the three likeliest nominees, alongside Kanye). Republicans love a storybook candidate, and no one tells a story like Sheehy.
People?
Do you think the Trump influence will last a DEFEAT?
Yes
Trump WILL BE a busy man when he loses….
Lotta court time AGAIN…..
Bleeding money
Divorce settlement also?
Oh?
Lotta Bitching, Crying and ‘Poor me?’
Is that a serious question? Trump has conformed the GOP’s collective asshole. I know you want him to fade away, but the party is only looking for charismatic carnival barkers now. Throwers of red meat who would do Bobby Flay proud. The three I mentioned fit that bill. If not any of them, then it’s a brawl which likely produces the beaten and battered likes of Ted Cruz(defeated or not next week), who proceeds to go down in historic fashion.
The Old party people won’t fight you guys think?
REALLY?
I mean Trump will be in DEEP SHIT personally if he doesn’t win
Folks like Cheney and Haley ain’t gonna just disappear
What “old party”? The likes of spineless Bush and Romney? Haley, the Cheney’s, and John Boehner are passe with current leadership/base interests. Mike Huckabee? Eric Cantor?
The Republicans are more like that group Blood Tribe that first circulated the Springfield shit than they are the party that won in 2004. Which was no great shakes, but they at least didn’t ball coddle anti Semitism.
Old Party IS COMPLETELY Gone?
REALLY?
Went to early vote……
1-2-3……..
A Trump voter i know did a little mumbling about the NY no ID checks, just address verification
Some new voters also thought they needed ID to vote
Quiet…….
Homeland Security has made visits to some locations around my way in Western Long Island
Morning…….
6 days out and Trump and Company are dealing with a Latino political brush fire
Harris and Walz are working their asses of to nail down this thing
Early voting should be leveling off…
Media IS straight up dumping Trump as he’s just plain negative
Joe Biden stood IN line for 40 minutes to vote getting good media….
Tom Chapman 🇺🇸🇨🇦@realTomChapman
This guy stood in line for almost 40 minutes to vote early. He could have been whisked to the front of the line, but chose to help a woman in a wheelchair and chat with his neighbors….because he’s Joe. 🤩
People can have their fun making their predictions, but I do this on my blog every two years and every two years I do very very well, especially in regards to all 435 House races.
I just have four states left which I will complete tomorrow. After that, I will make any necessary changes to my Governor and U.S. Senate predictions. On Sunday, I will post a prediction on the Presidential race based on each state result and the total EC. I will make any necessary updates on Monday and that will be it.
I have said here
House Speaker Jeffries
Schumer LOSES his Majority Leader spot to a Republican
We all know you’ll predict a Trump win and a unified Republican government. Just as we can figure what I’ll predict. Cut the self important shit, boy wonder.
Please take your meds. Also, if you look at my blog, I thus far have Democrats netting seven house season. I think the final total, as of today, will be six, but we will see. That would give them a House majority. My race by race predictions are far more realistic than your attempt, but we can see afterwards.
I do think Republicans will win the Senate. Just about everyone
I have no idea, right now, in regards to Trump or Harris. It’s a tossup. I will see what it looks like on Sunday
Thanks Everyone…..
OK, here’s a question: How is your baiting a guy like me, who is public about his usage of antidepressants, any different from what you (likely wrongly) accused another poster on here of having done to a younger poster years ago? Your moral high ground is spurious at best here.
I’ll admit I almost certainly overstepped in my response to you. I do that a lot, I’ve noticed, and I’m actively examining my future and whether posting here or any other such site as this is a good idea. But the idea that Republicans retain over 200 House seats after their two years of folly upon folly upon endless folly is ridiculous. With the repercussions from the Madison Square Garden “Comedy” Hour not yet being fully felt, I’m revising my outlook on Florida in the Presidential, Senate, and four House races. Plus the Self seat in Texas.
I have to be donating to my last candidates of the election. I’ll give you a tip on LJ Holloway, the woman running against Aaron Bean around Jacksonville. Polls are showing that race closing hard in her favor. I’ve had that race on my radar for months as an upset possibility, alongside Wittman in VA, Timmons in SC, Stefanik in NY, and the two Mike’s in Ohio.
Be well.
One of the more interesting takes I am seeing today is that since the people who are supposedly Puerto Rican, standing in line, waiting to get into the PA Trump rally, were not offended, that means that it was not a big deal.
The people at a Trump rally approving of things that went on at a Trump rally. Imagine that!
Then there are the people who WILL change their vote after finally waking the fuck UP….
Almost nobody is going to “change their mind” and decide to vote for one nominee instead of the other,. The question is if they will decide to vote or not.
Again?
Good Point CG…..
I agree
Undecided is mostly dancing to pollsters
This isn’t a nothing burger, and it’s not dying down. To whoever posited that, I say “Y’all go take your Ivermectin, now.”
One of my response posts is in moderation.
Good Morning………
5 days out and I continue to believe that Trump hit his ceiling in the National and State polls
I continue to believe Harris WILL BE the first American Woman President….
Negative Trump stories are crowding the media
Glad to hear Biden called Trump voter’s‘Garbage’
Ole double standard has some‘worrying’ over Biden’s call, eh?
REALLY?
Lichtman sticking with a Harris WIN..,,
I second That…..
Besides on Twitter and Right-leaning blogs?
Not to much Good on Trump going into the home stretch…..
Have Mets fans been rooting for the Dodgers or Yankees?
Some for Yankee’s as a NY Team…
7-6 LA in the 9th….
And the LA Dodgers WIN the 2024 MLB World Series
Dodgers win World Series omens
2024 California beats New York
2020 Trump loses election
1988 Vice President gets elected President
We NEED First Woman President 2025….
In 2016, the assumed first woman President, who was a Cubs fan (and later disingenuously a Yankees fans) blew an election just days after the Cubs won it all.
She thought she HAD it sewed up…
Was unpopular….
Lousy campaigner
And didn’t listen to her pollster in the end….
Ther is absolutely NO comparison betweet Clinton and Harris….
NONE….
Wait?
Cept being woman Democrats….
At one point you thought Hillary was the best thing ever and you thought Kamala was unlikable and a poor politician.
Changed von both…….
Shit happens…….
One of the great bellwethers in Presidential elections comes down for Harris.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kamala-harris-won-nickelodeon-kids-pick-president_n_6720f526e4b0b5d43560bc4c
Kids KNOW the Right Thing for America….
New Open Threat coming later…..
The Supreme Court on Friday said it won’t block Pennsylvanians whose mail votes are voided for technical reasons from voting provisionally at their polling place on Election Day, rejecting a challenge from the Republican National Committee.
The emergency order keeps in place a 4-3 ruling from Pennsylvania’s top court giving voters the additional option to still participate when they return their mail ballot without an inner, secrecy envelope or other issues…
More…
As Tim Walz would surely second, I have weird dreams.
One of my recent ones involved Jack having me chased off his vast estate by the Dorchester chapter of the Redneck Mafia after a deal we were trying to hammer out went awry. Got lost in the labyrinthine garden set up and thought I was finished.
Morning All….
5 days out…….
Polling still slight advantage Harris…..
More stories about Trump & Co. playing DEFENSE NOT OFFENSE…..