I have NO problem with posting something that would piss Donald Trump off with telling the REALITY of the actual vote a week out from the election….
Donald Trump and Vance ARE LOSING right now….
Actually?
Acording to the ‘polls’ they NEVER were WINNING….
We have a linked piece below that reports the ACTUAL Early vote IS STRONGLY Harris/Walz Nationally….
Swing states?
Also have Harris ahead in the ACTUAL Early vote….
Could Trump catch up?
Maybe…
Likely?
Nope…..
Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.
- ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
- CNN: Harris 61-36
- NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
- HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
- USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
That’s 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but I’ll just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why they’re swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.
That’s an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.
According to TargetSmart the modeled partisanship of those who have voted so far is:
- 46.7% Democrat
- 43.9% Republican
- 9.3% Other/Independent
While TargetSmart’s modeling of people’s partisanship is undoubtedly imperfect, it does include a lot of actual partisan registrations, and is probably a halfway decent estimate.
What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump….
Update….
Vice President Harris regained her 4-point lead over former President Trump in a new national survey from ABC News and Ipsos.
Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationally, 51 percent to 47 percent, in the survey conducted Oct. 18-22 and released Sunday. Among registered voters, Harris has a narrower lead, 49 percent to 47 percent.
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