Early Turnout Story….. Harris Lead….

First?

The early ACTUAL voting IS benefiting Harris/Walz…..

Second?

Trump early turn out AVAILABLE voters are Up…..

(Remember when Trump WAS AGAINST THIS….No More)

The Harris actual turnout numbers are Good, but not as Good as the number’s for Biden’s 2020 win….

A Win WOLD BE a WIN, eh?

 

CNN’s most recent national poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris had a large lead among voters who said they had already cast their ballots, despite a tied race among likely voters overall.

But the Trump campaign has made more of an effort this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging against preelection voting in 2020…

More…

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In the most recent wave of New York Times/Siena College polls of key battlegrounds, Kamala Harris led collectively among voters who turned out in recent primaries or the 2022 midterms, while Mr. Trump had a 12-point lead among the 2020-but-not-2022 vote and a 19-point lead among those who didn’t vote in 2020 (but who were registered at the time; new registrants are evenly divided)….

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This is an extraordinary change from as recently as a decade ago, when Democrats were presumed to be the party that benefited from high turnout. During the Obama era, Democratic chances seemed to depend on mobilizing young, nonwhite and infrequent voters to the polls.

Now, all these familiar maxims have been turned upside down. As the prominent Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg put it: “The Harris coalition rests on the most reliable voters (older, college educated). Trump needs every single low-propensity less educated young person to come out and vote for him.”

Ms. Harris can probably take it to the bank that primary-or-midterm voters will turn out in a presidential election. Those who didn’t vote in 2022, let alone 2020, are a little more iffy. Tens of millions of them will undoubtedly vote, but just how many — and exactly which ones — can easily decide the election…

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The Times/Siena polling suggests something like this is a real possibility. The poll asks voters how likely they are to vote, and Ms. Harris usually fares best among those who say they’re almost certain to vote, while Mr. Trump fares better among those who aren’t sure.

This should not be especially surprising, as Ms. Harris fares best among higher-turnout voters. What is more surprising is that this advantage penetrates even within different turnout groups….

More…..

New York Times tracking of Early Vote numbers…..

image…US News