Ukraine Update…927 Days of the Russian Conflict…..A Long Range missile Ok for Ukraine ?…..

• Russian forces have begun a significant counter-offensive against Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk region, according to pro-Moscow war bloggers and a senior Russian commander. Pro-Ukrainian observers also reported heavy fighting in part of the occupied area and the possible Russian recapture of villages. Russian forces were said to have taken several villages on the west of the sliver of Russia that Ukraine has carved out, pushing Ukrainian forces to the east of the Malaya Loknya river south of Snagost. Russia’s defence ministry said it had defeated Ukrainian units at a number of villages. There was no independent confirmation or immediate comment from Ukraine.

• The Institute for the Study of War said on Thursday morning that it would be “premature to draw conclusions” about the counterattacks at this stage. The thinktank reported: “Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk oblast and reportedly seized several settlements north-east and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11.”

• The ISW continued: “The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in Kursk oblast are unclear and the situation remains fluid as of this report … Ukrainian forces reportedly began new attacks against the Russian counterattack west of Snagost and throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk oblast.” Maj Gen Apti Alaudinov, who commands Chechnya’s Akhmat special forces fighting in Kursk, said Russian troops had gone on the offensive and taken back control of about 10 settlements in Kursk.

• A Russian SU-35 fighter jet crashed in the Black Sea on Wednesday after firing missiles towards Ukrainian targets, reports said. There was no confirmation but both Russian and Ukrainian-aligned information channels posted about a crash and a Russian search operation afterwards, with varying, unconfirmed accounts of how it might have been shot down.

• Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Sybiga, on Wednesday urged Kyiv’s allies on its western borders to shoot down Russian drones and missiles flying over its western regions. “There have already been numerous instances of Russian aircraft violating the airspace of neighbouring countries and Nato countries,” said Sybiga. Allies should “explore the possibility of shooting down missiles over the territory of Ukraine”.

• It came after the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, gave his strongest hint yet that the White House is about to lift its restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons supplied by the west on key military targets inside Russia. A decision is understood to have already been made in private. Blinken and the British foreign secretary, David Lammy, met with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, in Kyiv on Wednesday.

• British government sources indicated that a decision had already been made to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles on targets inside Russia, although it is not expected to be publicly announced on Friday when Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, meets Joe Biden in Washington DC.

• The Kyiv meeting has inevitably lifted expectations that Ukraine will shortly be given permission to fire Anglo-French Storm Shadow and US Atacms missiles, which have a range of 190 miles plus, into Russia, the Guardian’s defence editor Dan Sabbagh reports. Blinken and Lammy provided a potential justification, censuring Iran for sending short-range, high-speed Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia.

• The UK Foreign Office has announced sanctions on 10 ships it believes are at the heart of Russia’s shadow oil export fleet. Russia has a large fleet of often unseaworthy and ageing tankers that transport Russian gas and oil products around the globe. Oil exports are Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most critical revenue source for funding the war in Ukraine, accounting for about a quarter of the Russian budget in 2023…..

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