The Hill has piece which fronts the idea that that Donald Trump IS trailing in the polls and Electoral Vote?
That Could be Real and RIGHT come Election Day……
Even if the polls where wrong in the Electoral Vote back in 2016, but right in the overall vote that went to Hillary Clinton…
Pollsters caution against assuming that the polls this cycle are susceptible to the same errors as previous ones that underestimated support for former President Trump, arguing that every election is different and that this year’s polls are an accurate reflection of the competitiveness of the race.
Polls now show Vice President Harris leading Trump by about 4 points, according to the average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. But the race in the roughly half dozen battleground states is even closer, and a polling error like the ones in the past could mean Trump is in a stronger position to prevail than the data says.
…
….polling analysts say it’s not that simple.
“We don’t always see the misses in the same direction,” said Chris Jackson, the senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos. “I can tell you that the polling industry has done substantial changes to how we do our surveys to try to account for what we think was driving those errors in 2020. So while there undoubtedly will be errors in the future, they’re probably going to be driven by different things and go in different directions.”
Pollsters have had a rough couple of presidential cycles in the Trump era, and it’s led to widespread skepticism of just how accurate their measurements are, even as news story after news story details the latest polling findings.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump was the underdog, first to Hillary Clinton and then to Joe Biden. In both cases, he outperformed most of his polls.
The first time, it was enough to win the Electoral College. The second time, Biden won, but it was a very tight race in a number of battleground states….
…
“Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. And this cycle there may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote. You may have some younger, some people of color who don’t look like they’re turning out either,” she said.
Lake said while Democrats are gaining an edge with newly registered voters, many of whom are young women concerned about access to reproductive health care, more voters who are already registered and planning to vote for the first time this election favor Trump.
“What we’re doing in our polling at this close [to the election] date is we’re often giving [multiple] turnout models. This is where we’re at. If it’s like this, this is where we’re at,” she said, explaining that different turnout models for Election Day can produce significantly different outcomes…..
Note…
A poll is just THAT….
A read in THAT moment of a select group of ndividuals …..
The humor here is unmistakable.
“A poll is just THAT…a read in THAT moment of a select group of individuals.”
James
And I agree.
Yet a couple of weeks ago when I and CG commented that the race was a tossup?
James definitively chastised us that it was “ not a tossup.”
Why?
Because Harris was leading in the polls.
You know those “polls”that uh are nothing more than” a read in that moment of a select group of individuals.”
At THIS TIME…….
The ‘polls’ and ‘model’s’ HAVE Harris projected to WIN….
I AGREE
James you’re very knowledgeable about all these “ polls” and uh “ models.”
For the benefit of those of us that are not?
Explain what the MOE is.
I feel your educating us would be of immense value.
MOE…. Margin of Error
Most outfits have like a +|~ of around 2% on their polls
NY Times/Siena can have as high as 4.2%
Most polls have an MOE of 3%.
Accordingly, a candidate with say 50% in a given poll could be at as high as 53% or as low as 47% .Quite a spread, particularly in close contests as the present one.
So when you claim Harris is “ leading” Trump in a given poll by 1 or 2 points ,such isn’t necessarily so if the MOE is say 3%.
This is a very close election presently and is certainly a tossup as of today.
Your declaration that it is not because she’s ahead within the MOE notwithstanding.
Good points…..
She STLL Leads in the National averages
Just about EVERY model STILL. has her at around 270….
She cares blacks, Latino’s, young, old and young voters…..
Fundamentally?
She SHOULD BE WINNING